It feels like not that long ago we were watching the Kansas City Chiefs celebrate another Super Bowl title in Las Vegas, but a new NFL season is upon us this week.
Forecasting what lies ahead on the 283 game road to New Orleans is anyone’s guess after a busy offseason for many teams but every side will enter Week 1 with hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Ahead of Friday’s kickoff, we have scoured the markets, studied the preseason film and worked out our forecast for the coming season.
Check out our full division by division preview below and our picks for the 2024 NFL season.
DIVISIONS
AFC East
Let’s start with the AFC East in what is one of if not the most competitive divisions in the league with three teams all very close in the market.
It has been shifting back and forth but the defending champion Buffalo Bills are the favourite at the time of publish, slightly ahead of the public pick the New York Jets and then there are the Miami Dolphins.
Oh and if you are at all wondering, the Patriots are also in this division but the first season of life post Bill Belichick is expected to be a rough one, so let’s not go too deep on them.
Instead the effort here should be directed towards finding a winner and there is a real strong case for and against all three teams.
Buffalo moved on from a number of veterans, most notably receiver Stefon Diggs and are putting a lot more pressure on Josh Allen to carry this team back to the playoffs.
Allen has proven himself as a special, albeit occasionally inconsistent player but as long as they hit December around 7-6 they will be in the mix once again.
I like the over for their win total and would expect them to finish at least 11-6
Miami has the dynamic offence that has slowed down significantly as the season goes on, but it has been enough to make the playoffs and with Buffalo potentially taking a step back, they are my pick to win this division.
Not to mention with Tua Tagovailoa all set to throw the ball all over the field, his price in the total passing yards market looks like excellent value.
As for the Jets, perhaps it is just down to 25-odd years of watching them, but how can you have faith in this team despite their ultra-talented roster.
Last year Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the last piece of the puzzle but his achilles blew out on the fourth play of the season, and 40-year-olds don’t bounce back from major injuries well.
Then there’s the sneaky truth that he was not great in his final season in Green Bay either.
Even with all of the talent across the remainder of the roster, I still just can’t see them as one of the AFC’s best seven teams, let’s not forget they had a very fortunate breaks late in the season to even get to 7-10, their coaching is questionable and most of all, it’s the Jets.
Miami to Win the AFC East @ $3.00
Buffalo Over 10.5 Wins @ $2.25
NY Jets to Miss the Playoffs @ $2.30
Tua Tagovailoa Most Regular Season Passing Yards @ $9.75
Tyreek Hill Over 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $2.05
Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $2.05
Tyreek Hill Most Receiving Yards @ $7.25
AFC North
While all four AFC North teams have a case to win this division, it sure seems like by December we will be talking about a two horse race for this crown.
Baltimore had the AFC’s top seed last season and have had a few changes this offseason especially on the defensive side of the ball with coordinator Mike McDonald coaching in Seattle and star linebacker Patrick Queen now in Pittsburgh.
Their offensive line has had its share of departures as well, but they have had a big in with Derrick Henry adding some power to Lamar Jackson’s dynamism.
Baltimore will be there or thereabouts, but if the Bengals can stay healthy they look like the team to beat in this division.
Despite having a fairly young roster, this feels like a last roll of the dice for this group of players with Tee Higgins and others off contract at the end of the season.
After a nightmare season with injury last year, Joe Burrow should be fit and firing from the outset which should have him in the mix for some individual honours as well.
Having their leader on offence combined with a couple of easier games thanks to their fourth placed finish in the division last year will help propel the Bengals into the postseason.
However with the highly competitive nature of the AFC North, there is a chance that these teams all steal wins off each other and backing either of these teams at over 10.5 wins at their current price is not worth the risk.
As for the other two teams, Cleveland stunned pretty much everyone last season rolling through five quarterbacks and too many offensive linemen to count but still winning 11 games and making the Wild Card Round.
That was an impressive effort no matter how you spin it but all signs are pointing towards a slight regression in 2024, mostly because there are major concerns over Deshaun Watson’s ability to play a full season.
While his absences since getting traded to Cleveland were not all injury related, Watson’s problems with his throwing shoulder and his struggles to integrate with Kevin Stefanski’s offence raise all sorts of red flags.
They have too much talent to bottom out completely and land in the top ten of the draft, but backing them to have a losing season is one of the better value bets in the team win totals market.
Quarterback is the major concern in Pittsburgh as well, but instead of injury issues, it just boils down to whether or not Russell Wilson is any good anymore.
Mike Tomlin has never had a season with more losses than wins but if Wilson is finished, as he looked at times in Denver and Seattle, then that streak could be in real danger.
They at least have one of the best defensive players in the league in TJ Watt but they will have to get some support on the other side of the ball and there is a real case to be made that they would be better off with the reclamation project of Justin Fields.
Just like Cleveland they will probably wind up around that seven or eight win number and Tomlin’s impressive streak will finally come to an end.
In terms of player markets there is one multi that stands out and it’s backing TJ Watt and Myles Garrett to hit the over for their sack total numbers.
Garrett has had 16, 16 and 14 in the last three seasons while Watt has had at least 14.5 sacks in four of the last five years.
Cincinnati to Win the AFC North @ $2.65
Cleveland Under 8.5 Wins @ $2.05
TJ Watt Most Regular Season Sacks @ $4.50
MULTI: TJ Watt Over 13.25 Sacks & Myles Garrett Over 13.25 Sacks @ $3.49
AFC West
Let’s not try and pretend there is a lot of drama at the top of this division, Kansas City is going to win it again, but there’s no value backing them at a short $1.40.
However backing the Chiefs to win 12 games is another strong play given they are averaging 12.5 wins per season with Mahomes at the helm.
On top of that, there is a bit of fun to be had with the player markets given the evolution of the offence that appears to have taken place this offseason.
As reliable and trustworthy as he has been for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce is not going to receive the same workload during the regular season he has in the past, even at the end of last season Kelce wasn’t really playing on first down.
However once they get in the red zone he will be there for Mahomes to target so his touchdown total could be met in the six division games alone.
Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy can run and if he is able to get on the same page with Mahomes then they will connect on a number of big plays.
Second year receiver Rashee Rice might dodge suspension for his off-field antics so there are two players that will be worth keeping an eye on in the season long and weekly performance markets.
As for the rest of the division there are a couple of plays that leap off the page, starting with the LA Chargers, who have gone for the big name coaching hire with Jim Harbaugh.
Last seen in the NFL a decade ago, Harbaugh was able to bring instant success to San Francisco before spectacularly flaming out in his last season.
Just about everywhere he has gone he has made that team instantly competitive and despite a few major question marks on the roster, the Chargers should be much better than their 5-12 finish last season.
I’m expecting the Chargers to finish with double digit wins and return to the playoffs this season, although chances are they will be one and done in the postseason.
The less said about Denver and Las Vegas the better though, although the Broncos with Bo Nix as the starting quarterback should be somewhat capable and competitive, but maybe not that good.
Meanwhile, the Raiders really don’t seem to have a whole lot of hope around their season with their best offensive player trying to get traded to the Jets and no proper starting quarterback.
Their season win total of 6.5 seems very optimistic, especially with this schedule.
Kansas City Over 11.5 Wins @ $1.83
Las Vegas Under 6.5 Wins @ $2.05
LA Chargers to Make the Playoffs @ $2.05
Patrick Mahomes Over 33.5 Passing Touchdowns @ $2.10
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $2.05
Xavier Worthy Over 750.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.82
Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $2.05
AFC South
I’m going to take a slightly different approach to the AFC South this season because it seems like the general consensus is that the Houston Texans will be the team to beat.
That makes finding value on the defending division champions hard to find because of the wave of support, which means you are locked in to one of two extremes here.
Either the Texans are going to be really good and you can back them to make the Super Bowl, or there will be a regression and that could open up the door for a challenger.
Houston’s floor is still probably around that eight win mark, but with a full season of footage on CJ Stroud and the boom or bust acquisition of Stefon Diggs, this team is no sure thing to continue ascending.
Think back 12 months ago when Jacksonville were supposed to be that team going from strength to strength before a season from hell with injuries saw them slip out of the playoff picture.
Assuming Trevor Lawrence can stay in one piece this season, the Jaguars offence should be better than last year when he was not healthy.
They are a better chance than their $2.25 odds to make the playoffs and $3.50 quote to win the division.
Indianapolis is also set up to be competitive once again after just missing the playoffs in 2023 with a 9-8 record.
Stud running back Jonathan Taylor has had a much better preseason than last year when he was embroiled in a contract dispute and all signs are pointing towards a productive year.
He will take plenty of pressure off Anthony Richardson who was a raw prospect last season and still has a long way to go in his development.
Those limitations at the most important position might keep them outside of the playoffs this year but it should help them out long term.
Then there’s Tennessee, who will probably be fighting with Las Vegas for the first overall pick in April’s NFL Draft.
Jacksonville to Win the AFC South @ $3.50
Jacksonville to Make the Playoffs @ $2.25
Jonathan Taylor Over 1025.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.87
Jonathan Taylor Over 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns @ $1.87
NFC East
No division has a bigger range of potential outcomes than the NFC East with just about every team a boom or bust prospect.
What makes it even more interesting is that three of these four teams have all shown an interest in acquiring free agent coach Bill Belichick in the past and if any of them have a rough year, the respective owners may opt to pull the pin on their current coach.
Philadelphia might be the team with the biggest range of outcomes this season with a roster that is talented enough to go all the way to the Super Bowl, but the potential dysfunction that could see them end the year in a smouldering mess needing a major rebuild.
Offensively they have to overcome the loss of team captain Jason Kelce who was integral to that line’s success not just with their signature QB Sneak play but also setting protections.
Perhaps an overhaul of the coaching staff lead by new coordinators Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio will revitalise a team that collapsed in a heap over the back end of last season.
There is a lot to like about Philadelphia and I’m willing to bank on them responding to the challenge and restoring their status as contenders in 2024.
In terms of raw talent, Saquon Barkley is right up there with the best at his position and to see him as the fourth favourite in the most rushing yards market is phenomenal value.
As is Jalen Hurts to lead all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns, given how hard the Eagles are to stop when deploying their automatic short yardage play on the goal line.
Dallas is the team best placed to challenge Philadelphia and they do have a coach that is strong during the regular season, but with so many players desperately trying to get a new contract, that team looks like the one that will implode when things start to go wrong.
Their one bright spot might be Micah Parsons who will be in a slightly different role to the last few seasons with new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and he is one of the better bets to lead the league in sacks.
Because of the massive range of uncertainty surrounding Washington and their readiness to compete with a rookie quarterback, they are one of the more obvious stay-away choices.
Meanwhile the Giants could be good, but it seems far more likely that that they are going to wind up picking their new quarterback in April 2025.
Philadelphia to Win the NFC East @ $1.80
Dallas to Miss the Playoffs @ $2.50
Jalen Hurts Most QB Rushing Touchdowns @ $2.40
Saquon Barkley Most Rushing Yards @ $8.25
Micah Parsons Most Sacks @ $5.00
NFC North
It might not be the best division top to bottom but the NFC North has the potential to be the most entertaining group of teams this season.
Detroit is no longer the plucky underdog with the gritty but loveable coach, now they have genuine expectations to deal with but they also have a good enough roster to go on another deep run.
It might be a bit boring to back them to win the division as favourites, but they look like the best team top to bottom in the North.
Green Bay is good enough to finish on top of at least three other divisions around the league and are going to go on a playoff run once again on the back of Jordan Love elevating himself into MVP contention.
Do not be surprised if this division goes right down to the wire in terms of the winner but the edge has to go to the Lions just because of the number of gamebreakers they have to call on.
Chicago is going to be must watch at least early on in the season with dynamic rookie Caleb Williams all set to take the league by storm… if he is able to live up to his potential.
However his vibrant style might see him go through some growing pains early on in his professional career and it might lead to the Bears losing a few too many games early on to be seen as a proper playoff team.
He is going to make his share of big plays but there will be no shortage of interceptions and with no real backup options, the Bears could just let him learn from his mistakes.
Finally we have the Vikings who could have been good this year after a reset at the quarterback position, but rookie JJ McCarthy tore his ACL in preseason and will be forced to watch as Sam Darnold runs the show.
There is a case to be made for the Vikings having enough talent around Darnold to carry him, but I wouldn’t be willing to bet anything more than Monopoly money on a Sam Darnold lead team at the moment.
Detroit to Win the NFC North @ $2.40
Jordan Love Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns @ $2.00
Caleb Williams Most Interceptions By a Rookie @ $3.10
NFC West
While historical trends point towards San Francisco having a down year after their overtime loss in the Super Bowl, their division makes it tough to back against them returning to the playoffs.
None of the other three teams appear to have done anything to close the gap on the 49ers and in fact there is a real possibility it may have widened over the last six months.
LA has some dynamic players on offence but that defence was held together with duct tape at times and there is no easy way to replace the most impactful player on that side of the ball this generation with the retirement of Aaron Donald.
Seattle replaced Pete Carroll with a slightly younger defensive minded coach but that team looks like it is a year or two away from competing properly and they will be once again hovering around that 8-9/9-8 mark.
Then there is Arizona, where Kyler Murray finds himself in a make or break year in his second season back from an ACL tear.
It is also the second season for coach Jonathan Gannon who has his program in place and there will be a certain expectation of improvement from last year’s 4-13 record.
Out of all eight divisions this is the one where there is the least amount of value to be found so there’s only two plays here.
San Francisco Over 11.5 Wins @ $2.00
LA Rams Under 8.5 Wins @ $2.20
NFC South
We could say we have saved the best till last in terms of the divisions but that really is not the case with the NFC South.
The last time a team had double digit wins was in 2021 and the standard of play here has been horrendous.
Let’s start with the Carolina Panthers who gave up a bag to draft Bryce Young in 2023, only to go 2-15 and lose the first overall pick as a part of that trade.
How exactly are they going to get better when they can’t bring in talented players because their offseason acquisitions left a lot to be desired.
6-11 seems like their absolute ceiling and even that is being quite optimistic with their roster as it is currently constituted.
New Orleans seems destined to take a backwards step after just missing the playoffs a year ago and going 9-8.
Derek Carr just isn’t the guy for this team and it feels like only a matter of time before the Saints push the button for a total rebuild of that franchise.
Which then leaves Tampa Bay and Atlanta fighting for the division crown which eight wins might be enough for.
Baker Mayfield was one of the better stories of last season, but losing his trusted coordinator, to the Panthers no less, is not a good sign for his chances of repeating his 2023 form.
The Bucs might be able to muster a winning record but they seem destined to take a backwards step.
Meanwhile Atlanta had one of the more puzzling offseasons that could turn out to be the smartest moves they could have made.
It looked like Bill Belichick would be their new head coach, only for them to pivot to Raheem Morris who will bring a strong offensive coaching staff with him.
They upgraded the quarterback position with Kirk Cousins, who is admittedly coming off an Achilles tear but when healthy is a good quarterback.
Many were stunned by the selection of Michael Penix at number eight but he is there as the long term solution for the franchise and the short term safety net if Cousins is not able to recover.
Either way, the new setup should work out perfectly for their star skill position players who are primed for a breakout having been freed from last season’s shackles.
Carolina Under 5.5 Wins @ $2.00
New Orleans Under 7.5 Wins @ $2.00
Atlanta to Win the NFC South @ $1.83
Drake London Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $1.95
Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns @ $1.83
Kyle Pitts Over 800.5 Receiving Yards @ $2.00
Individual Awards
MVP
If we’re going in on the Eagles to have a strong season, then Jalen Hurts is going to be front and centre for their success.
Not just because of his value in short yardage situations, but he should be able to pile up the stats throwing to his talented group of skill position players.
Hurts looks like the best value in this market with the likes of Mahomes and company in single digits.
Jalen Hurts @ $13.00
Offensive Player of the Year
On the plus side, you can rule out pretty much every quarterback from this market because that position seems to have an exclusive domain on the MVP prize now.
So the question then becomes which player will put up gaudy stats on a good team and Tyreek Hill immediately springs to mind.
It’s tough to knock his favouritism in this market but there are other value players at a bigger price.
Amon-Ra St Brown is the main man in Detroit and that offence will go up and down the field at will.
He could be in line for a big campaign and he looks like the right mix of value and potential.
Amon-Ra St Brown @ $16.00
Defensive Player of the Year
It’s tough to break the pass rusher monopoly on this award, with that skill set, be it an edge rusher or interior lineman winning nine of the last ten titles.
The other noteworthy stat here is that the winner has come from a playoff bound team which can be used to cross off at least Maxx Crosby as well as possibly Myles Garrett and TJ Watt if those predictions listed above are accurate.
Aidan Hutchinson from the Lions might be the best value in this market but it’s tough to back two Detroit players to win Player of the Year awards.
Almost by process of elimination, Nick Bosa becomes the presumptive selection which all boils down to his ability to stay healthy.
If he plays 16 or 17 games, he will have the numbers to compete for this award.
Nick Bosa @ $8.00
Offensive Rookie of the Year
There really is only one option here, he is going to take us on a journey and it might be a bit bumpy sometimes, but Caleb Williams will just get too much attention, both positive and negative, to give anyone else a sniff here.
Caleb Williams @ $2.20
Defensive Rookie of the Year
There was a brief period of time where Latu was supposed to be a top five pick before falling to spot number 15.
Not that the Colts will mind, he has the skill set to come in and contribute right away which should help him pile up some sacks.
Laiatu Latu @ $6.00
Comeback Player of the Year
Aaron Rodgers is the favourite for an obvious reason here, and if he can take the Jets to the playoffs then he is going to win this award.
However I’m not convinced the Jets are going to be the juggernaut everyone seems to think they will be and I’ll instead take Joe Burrow.
With the Bengals likely to compete for the division and go on a deep playoff run, Burrow is going to be the major talking point come December, of course with the big caveat of assuming he is actually healthy.
Joe Burrow @ $3.45
Coach of the Year
This is another tough market to settle on, because plenty of coaches get punished for having good teams and simply living up to expectations.
It is a big reason why Bill Belichick only won this award three times, Sean McVay has only won it once and Andy Reid has only won it once.
They are all victims of their own high standards.
Realistically Dan Campbell probably should have won it in 2023 and perhaps the voters give him a make-up award this year if the Lions get a top two seed in the NFC.
With such a wide spread of prices there is value to be had making a couple of selections.
The other option is Doug Pederson who will get plenty of attention if he can steer the Jaguars to a division title and 11 or more wins.
Dan Campbell @ $26.00
Doug Pederson @ $29.00
SUPER BOWL LIX
Alright, if you have made it this far then good on you and now it is time for the final set of predictions for the 2024 NFL Season.
Given it is the Super Bowl, there will be a couple of standout choices, although for once the Chiefs will not be included in the selections.
The main reason for that is that no team has won three Super Bowls in a row and as good as they look this year, that is a lot of history to take on.
Having done the standings and the brackets, I landed on a Philadelphia-Cincinnati Super Bowl which would be a pretty decent game on paper given both have lost the big game in recent seasons.
With both at double digit odds, there is plenty of value just backing those two and the third option is admittedly a bit of a stretch but the Packers are the other team that could take that next step and go win the whole thing.
Cincinnati to Win the Super Bowl @ $12.50
Philadelphia to Win the Super Bowl @ $15.00
Green Bay to Win the Super Bowl @ $19.00