The late, great Shane Warne warned us about the Sydney weather.
At one point during the Boxing Day test match, often when a lull in the contest ensued as it often does during the marathon of this version of the game, the conversation would shift to the upcoming Test at the SCG.
With his tongue firmly planted in his cheek, Warney would unleash a harsh critique on the effect that the weather has on the almost always important final Test Match of the Australian summer ‘every bloody year’.
Rising through the ranks of Australian cricket with the likes of Ricky Ponting and Mark Waugh one can’t but think his frustration also stemmed from being a punter and avid horse racing fan.
The Sydney Autumn Carnival is the pinnacle of horse racing for NSW but it is often marred with a heavy deluge of rain on its centerpiece race days.
So much so that trainers of proven wet track specialists are constantly refreshing the BOM in order to throw a nomination in for that race that may be just beyond their horses level under normal circumstances.
It’s easy to bemoan the impending weather that threatens to diminish a truly sensational autumn racing carnival but I implore punters and racing fans alike to put aside their negative attitude and replace it with hope and optimism.
With the opportunity to take advantage of statistical evidence and form references in an attempt to fill the Ladbrokes account up.
Here’s some examples of why.
Fuimicino – 2009 The BMW – SP $31
The Nick Moraitis owned gelding had beaten home 12 of a possible 73 rivals in his previous six starts before heading into the Group 1 The BMW (Tancred Stakes) in 2009.
Not surprisingly the punters were looking elsewhere, notably in the direction of Bart Cumming’s Melbourne Cup winner of the previous spring in Viewed.
With the benefit of hindsight, the signs were there if you were willing to dig a little deeper.
And, if you weren’t rolling your eyes every time Warney went on one of his rants, you had your eye on BOM leading into the meeting.
Fuimicino won his maiden over 1600m at Kembla Grange at just his second race start on a heavy 10, all but swimming through the line 3.3 lengths clear of his nearest rival.
Three starts later he won the Group 1 AJC Derby, beating the likes of Tuesday Joy and Miss Finland on, you guessed it, a heavy 10.
Nettoyer – 2020 Doncaster Handicap – SP $41
The similarities between this daughter of Sebring and Shane Warne, who I continue to mention for whatever reason, are remarkable.
Both loved eating pizza, drinking beer, and winning when no one else thought they could.
And if you had seen both when they were young, you would never have thought that they were going to achieve anything in a physical capacity!
But given time to mature, the $20k yearling purchase made her debut as a late season three-year-old and at just her third race start, she won her maiden at Randwick by 10 lengths.
On a heavy track.
Just under three years later she ran into another bog in the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap carrying just 51.5kgs where she saluted for knockabout trainer Wendy Roche.
Other notable big priced winners on that day included King’s Legacy in the Sires’ Produce at $19, Raheen House in the Chairman’s Quality at $17 and Entente in the Carbine Club at $17.
El Mirada – 2001 All Aged Stakes – SP $31
If you failed to back the John Size trained El Mirada in the 2001 All Aged Stakes, then run over 1600m, you would be forgiven.
Not only did he finish eighth in the George Ryder, and then 10th in the Doncaster leading in, he was running into one of the greatest mares to ever grace the track.
Sunline had just won her second Cox Plate during the spring before jetsetting over to Hong Kong to take out the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile to close out the year and lined up as the $1.30 favourite.
Only five horses thought it necessary to even show up against the champion mare but all six faced a heavy 10 track.
It’s not as though El Mirada had any notable wet track form, but to prove my point about delving deep into the form when the Sydney rain inevitably comes this autumn, I offer the following.
In what I imagine to be Icelandic temperature conditions in Launceston, Tasmania, in 1996, a two-year-old El Mirada had her first start over 800m.
She won the race by 3.5 lengths on a heavy 10.
Do your wet track form punters!