It’s lights out and away we go for the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship and Melbourne is the venue for the opening race of the season.
After a busy offseason of driver movement we might need a few practice sessions to work out who is with what team.
While we don’t have time to recap every move, the key change without a doubt came at Ferrari with Lewis Hamilton donning the iconic red onesie for 2025 replacing Carlos Sainz.
Reigning champion Max Verstappen is still with Red Bull but he will be without Chief Technology Officer Adrian Newey who oversaw his era of dominance and has joined Aston Martin.
If Newey can turn Lance Stroll into a competent driver he may well be regarded as the most influential figure in Formula 1 history.
Racing tourists will be treated to the full spectrum of Melbourne’s weather over the weekend with rain forecast for Sunday adding another element to what promises to be a dramatic opening race.
Track Information
- Direction: Clockwise
- Lap Distance: 5.278km
- Total Laps: 58
- Race Distance: 306.124km
- Lap Record: 1:19.813 (Charles Leclerc, 2024)
- 2024 Podium: Carlos Sainz (FER), Charles Leclerc (FER), Lando Norris (MCL)
- Most Event Wins: Michael Schumacher (4 – 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004)
Race Winner
2024 runner up Lando Norris will enter the new season facing plenty of expectation not only to build on his impressive campaign and win his first world championship, but hold off fast rising teammate Oscar Piastri.
Norris is priced at $2.75 to win the race this weekend and it is a fair price for the Brit given the vulnerable position reigning champion Max Verstappen finds himself in.
However, there is far too much competition to think that Norris is going to start the season off on a winning note and the Ferrari duo of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton really do stand out as value plays.
That’s not to say Norris doesn’t have a good case, but the price on one of the Ferrari duo to beat him to the chequered flag looks like a far better option in this market.
Winning Car – Ferrari @ $3.00
Winning Margin
There is every chance that we see this race end under a safety car given the recent history in good weather, let alone when Melbourne’s indecisive atmosphere decides to get involved.
2023 ended with a margin of 0.179 seconds after a number of late red flags wiped out a quarter of the field.
Then last year the Ferrari duo were separated by just 2.366 seconds so you can see where this one is trending.
0.0-5.999 seconds @ $2.25
Podium Finish
There will be a red hot fight to fill out the podium behind the eventual race winner, with any number of combinations set to play out.
Oscar Piastri being at over even money for a podium finish in his home race seems incredibly high and well worth jumping on.
Elsewhere in the market, Max Verstappen might not be driving his usually dominant Red Bull this season, but he will still have a good car at his disposal and will no doubt want to atone for his lap three exit last year.
Take those two and at least one should be able to find a way on to the podium.
Max Verstappen Podium Finish @ $1.95
Oscar Piastri Podium Finish @ $2.25
Top 6 Finish
If we are going in on the storyline betting, this is the market where there might be some value to be found on the “best of the rest” options.
Liam Lawson showed his willingness to take chances on the track and will be out to prove a point in his first race as a Red Bull driver, which has massive boom or bust potential, so let’s back the boom option here.
As for a big money play, the ageless wonder Fernando Alonso is the true value option here, given he should have finished sixth last year before a post-race penalty dropped him to eighth.
Not to mention two years ago while driving for Aston Martin he pulled off a surprise third place finish so we know he loves the Albert Park circuit.
If the race gets a bit chaotic you can count on him to keep his head and work through the retirements to get his season off to a strong start.
Liam Lawson Top 6 Finish @ $2.45
Fernando Alonso Top 6 Finish @ $9.00
Points Finish
If we are going to back Alonso to finish in the top six, then a points finish is worth a double down as well.
In two seasons with Aston Martin, Alonso has been a consistent performer, earning points in 19 of 22 races in 2023 and 14 of 24 races last season.
His debut season with Aston Martin saw him start the year with 14 straight points finishes and last year he picked up points in the first six races.
Elsewhere, let’s look at the hot and cold Yuki Tsunoda who is just as likely to crash out on the first corner as he is challenge for points.
He has taken points in the last two Australian Grands Prix and at over even money is always worth a shot.
Yuki Tsunoda Points Finish @ $2.25
Fernando Alonso Points Finish @ $2.50
Number of Classified Finishers
17 finishers in each of the last two years in the dry and now we bring weather into play.
With so many new drivers taking to the track under race conditions for the first time, we could be in for a chaotic afternoon.
Under 17.5 Classified Finishers @ $2.20
Australian Grand Prix Same Game Multi
Here is where we might be able to find some value on Lando Norris, and the Brit will be the anchor for this feature.
SGM: Lando Norris Podium Finish, Lewis Hamilton Top 6 Finish, Fernando Alonso Point Finish @ $4.71