ACT Betting Analysis
There is no less relevant or interesting jurisdiction when it comes to the Federal Election than the ACT.
Labor currently holds all three seats on margins ranging from 12.2% to 15.8%.
There will be no upsets in 2025 with Andrew Leigh, Alicia Payne and David Smith set to all be returned.
Forecast
ALP – 3
LIB – 0
IND – 0
Recommended Bets
Nil
Northern Territory Betting Analysis
The Northern Territory has just two seats – Solomon based in Darwin and Lingiari covering the remainder of the state – and both are currently held by the ALP.
The ALP is favoured to retain both seats even after a recent redistribution saw Labor increase its margin in Lingiari from 0.9% to 1.7% while Solomon drops from 9.4% to 8.4%.
Former NT Deputy Chief Minister Marion Scrymgour will run again in Lingiari after successfully replacing popular local MP Warren Snowdon in 2022.
The Liberal Party is running a former police officer. Betting in this one is more than curious with Scrymgour $1.75 to win.
Factoring in the likely swing to Labor and the sophomore surge she will get, Labor are absolutely a bet.
Solomon is a safe Labor seat on a margin of 8.4% and that probably undersells it given the popularity of MP Luke Gosling, who has held the seat since 2016.
The $1.30 seems huge overs given that this seat is not really in play.
Forecast
ALP – 2
LIB – 0
IND – 0
Recommended Bets
Labor to Win Lingari @ $1.75 (4 units)
Labor to Win Solomon @ $1.30 (10 units)