New South Wales remains the most important state when it comes to determining the federal election winner and with NSW’s Anthony Albanese the fifth Prime Minister from the state this century, Labor will be hopeful of winning enough to lay the base for a return to Government.
With the abolition of North Sydney, a total of 46 seats – just shy of one-third of the next Parliament – will be determined in NSW.
The battlelines of the true believers are somewhat entrenched with the Coalition dominating rural seats and the affluent North Shore and Northern Beaches and the Shire.
Labor owns a tract from the inner-city out through the Western Suburbs as well as traditional mining cities Newcastle and Wollongong.
The Coalition has 13 seats in Banks, Berowra, Cook, Farrer, Hughes, Hume, Lindsay, Lyne, Mitchell, New England, Page, Parkes and Riverina that will be going nowhere.
They are shorter than $1.10 in each and deservedly so.
On the other side of the coin, the ALP has 12 seats where they are shorter than $1.10 in Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Grayndler, Greenway, Kingsford-Smith, Macarthur, Newcastle, Sydney and Watson that they will not be losing.
They are also priced between $1.11 and $1.25 in eight seats that they should be winning: Eden-Monaro, Hunter, McMahon, Parramatta, Reid, Shortland, Werriwa and Whitlam.
A redistribution took 2% of the ALP margin in Eden-Monaro but Labor has won it at the last four elections and Kristy McBain has proven a strong local member.
The $1.20 is a safe play. Hunter should be returned to the ALP but Suellen Wrightson has been the most vocal ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ candidate and adds some confusion to the seat.
Labor hold McMahon by 10.5% with Chris Bowen a high profile minister.
Former ALP Fairfield City councillor Carmen Lazar is putting up a strong independent challenge, but this price is wrong.
Andrew Charlton was a pre-selection controversy in 2022 in Parramatta but faces a weak challenge this time around so the $1.19 looks a play for shorts punters.
Labor’s polling in Reid has been poor relative to the 2022 result but Sally Sitou should have enough buffer to win.
Shortland is the Hunter-based seat of minister Pat Conroy that is in absolutely no danger.
Werriwa has been in Labor hands for all bar one term since 1919 and is the seat of party stalwarts Gough Whitlam, John Kerin and Mark Latham but housing estates are changing the demographics and loosening Labor’s grip.
They likely win again but no bet.
Whitlam is a silly price with the seat never going blue and the Liberal Party needing to disendorse its candidate a week into the election after misogynistic remarks.
That leaves a starting point of the ALP with 20 seats and the Coalition 13.
New South Wales currently has five legitimate independents along with an elected National tuned independent Andrew Gee in the Central West seat of Calare.
Kylea Tink has been forced out through the abolition of North Sydney.
Three of the other independents have received the backing of Climate 200.
Zali Steggall knocked off Tony Abbott in 2019 and should have no problem knocking off Jaimee Rogers.
Allegra Spender in Malcolm Turnbull’s old seat of Wentworth has been helped significantly by a redistribution that adds in a significant Labor vote from Kingsford Smith that sees her all-but-certain to return.
Sophie Scamps has not been popular with local voters, engulfed in scandals and fighting against a local media vehemently against her.
The $2.60 available for the Coalition is worth a tickle.
Dai Le in Fowler is the only true independent not of the teal variety looking to defend her seat.
She benefited from ALP hubris last time as they looked to parachute Kristina Keneally in from the Senate.
She won’t get the same favours this time though with fellow Vietnamese descendant Tu Le running against her.
Dai Le should get the money again but this is a difficult race to call.
Andrew Gee won Calare as a National in 2022, a seat he has held since 2016, but left the party at the end of 2022 over the Voice stance of the Nationals.
The seat has been a safe National seat since Independent Peter Andren’s death leading into the 2007 election, but this time around is a fascinating three-cornered contest between Gee, new Nationals candidate Sam Faraway and teal independent Kate Hook.
Hook pushed ahead of Labor last election and can best Gee this time but the best bet in the state is the Nationals to reclaim the seat at an insane price of $1.70.
Third-party candidates are also in the mix in Richmond, Cowper and Bradfield.
Richmond sees the ALP trying to ward off rising support for Greens in the area with the one-dominant Nationals rolling out an anti-vax type who would once have never been given a look-in by the party.
The Greens can jump the Nats here but that will only likely help ALP veteran Justine Elliot retain.
Cowper and Bradfield see the Coalition fending off teal challengers.
Cowper looks a very good bet to fall with Teal Caz Heise ahead in most polls across the last year including a recent YouGov poll.
She ran close in 2022 and will only get closer this time.
It is a similar story in Bradfield where Nicolette Boele will run again after pushing the Coalition to 4.2% last time.
Redistribution has halved that margin and the retirement of long-term MP Paul Fletcher futhers her chances.
There are five more seats that face the more traditional ALP v Coalition battle.
Labor currently hold Macquarie, Paterson, Robertson, Gilmore and Bennelong with the ALP favoured in the former three with the Coalition ahead in betting in the latter two.
Macquarie is currently held on a margin of 6.3% and is in no danger so the $1.33 is money-for-old-rope.
Paterson has a Labor margin of 2.6% but despite close polling looks a reliable Labor play now it has a heartland town like Maitland in it.
The $1.70 is a great play.
Robertson is on 2.2% with polling extremely close.
Former MP Lucky Wicks is looking to win the seat back.
Lean Labor but the ALP are clearly worried about the division.
Gilmore and Bennelong are two seats the Coalition simply must gain if they are to be any hope.
Gilmore in a natural Liberal seat that was destroyed by internal bickering in 2019.
Andrew Constance made huge inroads in 2022 with a 12.1% swing and looks a great bet to win the seat back for the Coalition in 2025.
Bennelong is an ALP-held seat that is now a notional Liberal seat on the second smallest margin in the nation of 0.04%.
John Howard’s former seat looked a likely Liberal return but candidate Scott Yung has endured a number of scandals and is fast letting the ALP back into the race.
The better bet is Labor.
Forecast
ALP – 25
LIB – 16
IND – 5
Recommended Bets
Labor To Win Bennelong @ $1.87 (2 units)
Independent To Win Bradfield @ $1.95 (5 units)
Coalition To Win Calare @ $1.70 (10 units)
Independent To Win Cowper @ $1.95 (6 units)
Labor To Win Eden-Monaro @ $1.20 (8 units)
Coalition To Win Gilmore @ $1.57 (6 units)
Coalition To Win Mackellar @ $2.60 (2 units)
Labor To Win Macquarie @ $1.33 (10 units)
Labor To Win McMahon @ $1.21 (8 units)
Labor To Win Parramatta @ $1.19 (6 units)
Labor To Win Paterson @ $1.70 (8 units)
Labor To Win Richmond @ $1.40 (8 units)
Labor To Win Shortland @ $1.15 (10 units)
Independent To Win Wentworth @ $1.20 (8 units)
Labor To Win Whitlam @ $1.15 (10 units)