Australia’s most left-wing state has seen its quota reduced from 39 seats to 38 following the abolition of the seat of Higgins, a one-time Liberal stronghold held by PM’s Harold Holt and John Gorton and former Treasurer Peter Costello that was claimed by Labor for the first time in 2022.
The abolition of Higgins has resulted in notable redistributions in five central and eastern Melbourne seats.
The ALP has a lock on the 13 seats of Ballarat, Calwell, Cooper, Corio, Fraser, Gellibrand, Gorton, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong and Scullin with margins of between 9.5% and 27.1%.
Labor are shorter than $1.10 in each of the 14 seats and they also look to have a very firm grip on the six seats of Bendigo, Bruce, Corangamite, Dunkley, Hawke and Holt that all have margins of 5.3% or bigger.
These present some solid betting opportunities.
All six seats have had polling suggesting returns of half the last election but all came prior to the big Labor push the last month.
Bendigo at $1.17, Bruce at $1.20, Dunkley at $1.22 and Hawke at $1.22 are all top bets.
Labor is working off a base of 19 seats in Victoria.
It is a different story for the Coalition, who are shorter than $1.10 in just the four seats of Gippsland, La Trobe, Mallee, Nicholls – with La Trobe being the Coalition’s only Melbourne certainty.
Peter Dutton’s team is shorter than $1.25 in four more seats: Aston, Casey, Flinders and Menzies.
Casey and Flinders are safe Liberal holds but Aston and Menzies are not as clear-cut.
Aston is a fascinating seat where the Coalition seems too short at $1.20.
Labor claimed the seat in a 2023 by-election following the “retirement” of Alan Tudge.
Peter Dutton has made numerous visits and polls have the Coalition ahead of the election and the Liberal Party is confident of a gain but the value is with Labor at $4.
It is a similar story in Menzies.
The Coalition have never lost Menzies but the seat is now a notional ALP seat after adding some strong Labor booths in the south of the electorate.
Labor is not confident and the polling is going in the Coalition’s favour so no bet but the short price the Coalition is not a great bet.
Green Adam Bandt is a lock to retain the seat of Melbourne that he has held since 2010.
Indi has gone independent since 2013 and Helen Haines put up a huge margin in 2022 and that is unlikely to shorten.
That leaves nine seats that look to be truly in-play: the teal-held seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, the ALP-held seats of Chisholm, Macnamara, McEwen and Wills and the Coalition-held seats of Deakin, Monash and Wannon.
Monique Ryan looks to be in a lot of trouble in Kooyong after being the face of the teal movement last time with a redistribution likely to work well against her.
An April Accent/RedBridge poll has her behind 52-48.
A late-ditch plea for cash is a bad indicator.
Zoe Daniel in Goldstein has performed better than Ryan but faces 2022 opponent Tim Wilson and the redistribution works in his favour.
At odds-against the Coalition look the bet.
Macnamara and Wills are two left-wing safe Labor seats that are facing strong challenges from the Greens.
The Greens can take advantage of any anti-Israel sentiment that exists against Labor’s Jewish MP Josh Burns.
They were close-up last time in a tight three-way contest and this is the kind of seat that can fall to the Greens.
Wills is more likely to go with well-known former Victorian member Samantha Ratnam running for the Greens.
She has been campaigning strongly for over a year and is another play at odds-against.
Labor holds Chisholm and McEwen on margins of 3.3% and 3.8%.
Chisholm has had its margin halved by the abolition of Higgins and Peter Dutton has courted the Chinese vote hard.
This is a seat the Coalition will be confident of picking up.
The Coalition are favoured to pick up McEwen but Rob Mitchell has done a strong job retaining the seat since 2010 and the most recent poll has him ahead.
The Coalition are $1.50 to win Deakin and $1.40 to claim Monash.
Both parties seem to think the Coalition will retain Deakin despite close recent polling.
Happy to bet the Liberals there.
Also happy to be with the Coalition claiming Monash against former Liberal MP/current independent Russell Broadbent.
Disillusioned MPs who lose pre-selection almost never win as independents.
The $1.40 about a Coalition win is a super bet.
Wannon in Western Victoria has independent Alex Dyson making a third run at the seat.
Dyson polled 57% in an April YouGov poll.
His strong ground campaign looks enough to overcome his deficit.
Forecast
ALP – 21
LIB – 12
IND – 5
Recommended Bets
Labor To Win Aston @ $4.00 (1 unit)
Labor To Win Bendigo @ $1.17 (10 units)
Labor To Win Bruce @ $1.20 (10 units)
Coalition To Win Chisholm @ $1.95 (1.5 units)
Coalition To Win Deakin @ $1.50 (4 units)
Labor To Win Dunkley @ $1.22 (10 units)
Coalition To Win Flinders @ $1.22 (6 units)
Coalition To Win Goldstein @ $2.10 (3 units)
Labor To Win Hawke @ $1.22 (10 units)
Independent To Win Indi @ $1.15 (10 units)
Coalition To Win Kooyong @ $1.73 (6 units)
Greens To Win Macnamara @ $2.40 (4 units)
Labor To Win McEwen @ $1.95 (2.5 units)
Coalition To Win Monash @ $1.40 (10 units)
Independent To Win Wannon @ $1.95 (4 units)
Greens To Win Wills @ $2.10 (6 units)