Newark, New Jersey will play host to UFC 316 this weekend and two UFC Bantamweight titles will be on the line in a packed card of quality fights.
UFC Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili we go head to head with Sean O’Malley for the second time in under 12 months after beating the number one contender in September 2024 via unanimous decision.
In the women’s bantamweight division, the much anticipated title fight between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison will take place as the co main event which looms as an intriguing contest for fight fans.
We dissect those two fights, as well as the entire main card, and offer our full betting plays below.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley
The first fight between these two under a year ago went exactly how most Merab fights go and there really were little surprises in how the fight played out, and the outcome of a unanimous decision win.
Now that Belal Muhammad has been dethroned from the welterweight division, by our very own Jack Della, Merab remains the most boring and predictable fighter in the UFC.
He is very effective however, doing what is needed to win and doing it very well every time.
The fact that O’Malley gets an automatic rematch, having not fought since the loss, is both a testament to his star power, and reflection on the lack of challenges for Merab in the Bantamweight division.
O’Malley had little answers for Dvalishvili in the first fight, and while he always has a chance to land a knockout punch because of his incredible timing and striking abilities, it’s a long shot.
He’s a very intelligent mixed martial artist and I’m hoping he has a few tricks up his sleeve this time around.
It’s just not a betting play in my opinion.
Merab’s last eight fights have gone to the judges and if I was forced to have a bet it would be on him by decision.
No Bet
Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison
Julianna Pena achieved what many thought was impossible by defeating the greatest ever female mixed martial artist to live when she submitted Amanda Nunes in December 2021.
Just six months later she lost the belt in a rematch, snatching the prize she had pursued for so long.
Injury prevented her from getting back in the octagon to forge a pathway back to UFC gold but she eventually got her shot against Raquel Pennington last year, winning a tight split decision.
Kayla Harrison has had a unique road to a UFC title shot to say the least.
An Olympic gold medalist in Judo at London 2012, Harrison eventually started her mixed martial arts career in the PFL where she won her first 15 fights.
The majority of those fights took place at Lightweight, a division the UFC does not have, and she had to drop two divisions when entering the biggest promotion in the sport this time last year.
She beat former Bantamweight champion Holly Holm on debut and then won a decision over Ketlen Vieira to earn this chance at the title.
13 of her 18 career professional wins have been by KO/TKO or submission which proves she is capable in all facets of the sport and although she hasn’t fought anyone of this calibre before, I believe she has the tools to be crowned the new Women’s Bantamweight queen within the distance.
2 Units Kayla Harrison By KO/TKO or Submission
Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer
Joe Pyfer won a UFC contract through Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022 and took out his first three fights in the promotion.
His first loss came at the hands of UFC stalwart Jack Hermansson but he bounced back from that with a first round knockout win over Marc-Andre Barriault in June 2024.
Kelvin Gastelum is in the twilight of his fighting career and at 33 years of age, it’s hard to see him getting back to the top of the division.
Including his title fight loss to Israel Adesanya in 2019 he has lost six of his last nine, albeit against the top echelon of fighters in the sport.
There is plenty of fight left in this dog and he has managed wins over Chris Curtis and Dan Rodriguez in his last three fights and those are two very tough opponents.
He’s yet to be knocked out in 29 career pro MMA fights so there’s no doubting his chin but that may be tested against a guy that hits as hard as Joe!
The key to victory for Gastelum is to keep pressure on just like Hermansson did but that is easier said than done especially with the threat of a takedown from his opponent.
1 Unit Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO or Submission
Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix
Mario Bautista has been on a tear in the UFC recently and is on a fast track to being the next challenger for the winner of the main event.
He now has seven wins in a row, which is tied for the third longest streak in UFC Bantamweight history.
Decision wins over Ricky Simon and Jose Aldo have put him as a legit title contender and he’ll be keen to solidify that on the main card on Sunday.
Patchy Mix is the latest world champion from another promotion to make the change to the UFC.
He was a multiple time Bellator Bantamweight champion who has just one loss on his 21 pro MMA fight resume and 13 submission wins to his name.
Those submission skills are thanks to a black belt in BJJ but he is a crafty fighter who uses his speed to his advantage.
He gets a fighter at the peak of his powers who has fought at the highest level for quite a long time but I’m with the newcomer to get the job done on debut.
2 Units Patchy Mix To Win @ $1.57
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland
You have to love Kevin Holland.
He continues to take the toughest fight available despite winning four of his last 10 bouts in the octagon.
That’s not to suggest he hasn’t been impressive or that he is not an extremely dangerous opponent either.
He has wins over Santiago Ponzinibbio, Michael Chiesa and Gunnar Nelson in that time, and that’s not mentioning his split decision loss against the champion of the Welterweight division in Jack Della.
It doesn’t get any easier for him either because Vicente Luque is a threat to any man that steps into the cage with him.
He was on the precipice of a title shot just a few short years ago but he has two wins in his last five.
Nine of his 23 pro wins have been by submission but getting Kevin Holland to the canvas and keeping him there is no easy challenge.
Something weird or strange usually occurs during a Kevin Holland fight which is why he continually gets main card spots and it’s for that reason that I don’t believe the judges will be needed in this one.
2 Units Fight Does Not Go The Distance