Forget the favourites – Ladbrokes have a selection of racing longshots at juicy odds worth a cheeky punt this Saturday!
Like any good punter, I know when not to chase my losses and, sorry to say, that was the case last weekend without any of our roughies running top four.
But, like any true racing fan, I also know when to get back in the saddle!
We’ve got a trio of Black-Types on the Saturday racing fixtures from Belmont over in the west to Caulfield where things are starting to get interesting as the spring carnival nears ever closer.
Can we get things back on track like Mr Brightside ahead of the Memsie following his international flop? Here’s hoping!
By the way, Mr B gets a special mention in our article on the timeless Aussie Group 1 winning veterans from the past 20 years – Golden Oldies: Australia’s Ageless Group 1 Winning Horses!
Our own resident “Value Whisperer” Lucy Henderson seeks to win back your love with her top Saturday roughies below.
Caulfield Race 8 (4:25pm AEST) – Group 3 $200,000 Bletchingly Stakes (1200m)
Each Way: No. 6 Yellow Sam ($9 at time of publish)
YELLOW SAM (4) has consistency in spades but in a field where there’s a few form lines to consider she’ll go around at close to $10 in the Group 3 feature at Caulfield on Saturday.
That’s a nice price for mine, especially looking at the good gate four draw and her flying form.
BARAQIEL is a deserving favourite, and I’ve got NEW YORK LUSTRE on top as the danger, but the value for the exotics has to be this airborne daughter of Ready For Victory from the Geelong base of Lindsey Smith.
The classy chestnut has eight wins from 18 starts, one of which was here at Caulfield two back over 1440m on a Soft (6) in a handicap on June 28.
She then went around here again on July 12 and was far from disgraced in a BM100 when third to ZOU ZENSATION doing some good work late in the piece.
The key to improvement is the drop back to six-furlongs, which she has a solid record over (7:3-1-1).
There’s rain around and a potential downgrade also shoots her higher into calculations as she’s proficient on rain affected going including two seconds from as many starts on Heavy tracks.
Some punters are clueing on as she’s an early market mover backed in from an opening quote of $14.
Mott should be somewhere round the middle and this mare can measure up from there.
Morphettville Race 8 (4:37pm AEST) – Listed $120,000 Lightning Stakes (1050m)
Each Way: No. 8 Always Enuff ($14 at time of publish)
ALWAYS ENUFF (3) is an up-and-coming short-distance runner in a suitable short-distance race and completely forgotten by punters.
Chasing a hat-trick of wins now, Shane Nichols’ nicely bred daughter of Capitalist is emerging as one to watch having four wins from 10 starts.
The latest two of those came back-to-back leading up to Saturday’s Listed challenge at Mornington on a Heavy (9) and Caulfield on a Soft (6) – both over 1000m.
Similar metres now and that’s been her sweet spot with the progressive filly boasting a 50% winning strike rate over this distance (8:4-0-1).
Won narrowly at a similar price on June 28 giving her confidence, Zac Spain stays in the saddle and gets the run of the race from the barrier.
Previous winning form third-up, they’ve made a couple of adjustments to her gear, and she’ll likely be sharper for it.
Expecting a slick run late with conditions working in her favour making a top three performance not out of the question.
Belmont Race 4 (5:00pm AEST) – Listed $125,000 Belmont Classic (2200m)
Place: No. 5 Royal Trooper ($31 at time of publish)
There are just eight juveniles in this race, three coming off at least one last start victory, and proven Black-Type winners.
But, there’s something about ROYAL TROOPER (4) for mine that suggests he might improve enough to run in the money behind one of the better young horses here.
There’s lots of attention on the Belmont Oaks winner FANCY RED, and I do like her to win this, but I’m always a bit of a sucker for a blowout 30/1 shot that looks to have some upside.
Greg Kersley’s King’s Troop gelding is that.
Winning isn’t really his thing, let’s be honest, with just one on the board from a dozen starts.
In a plus, that was over this 2200m distance which has him one up against a field where many are rising in metres hoping to see it out.
Also, when over the 2200m breaking his maiden status, he didn’t just get over by a whisker.
He had nearly five lengths to spare on the line at Northam over a filly who didn’t exactly frank the form when last in the Oaks at her next start.
He’s had two runs since when fifth at the same track and trip where a Soft course and bigger weight worked against him.
Then, improvement despite a drop to 1800m when down in grade for a Class 3 1800m finishing under a length third at Bunbury on the Fibre Sand course.
Look, there’s lots to consider and obviously he doesn’t bring in the highest form lines, but he was on speed and boxing on late last time out.
Blinkers on, up to a distance he’s proven at, not the worst roughie to have a couple of dollars on!
Good luck punters!