As we head into the American swing of the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship the next four races could be pivotal in determining the driver’s title, starting with this weekend’s United States Grand Prix.
After McLaren wrapped up the constructor’s title a fortnight ago in Singapore, their two drivers can now solely focus on winning the individual drivers’ championship.
Oscar Piastri is the $1.42 favourite to take out the title with a 22 point lead over Lando Norris ($3.50), and the Aussie has struggled over the last three races.
You cannot rule out Max Verstappen at $7.00 overall either, although he would basically have to win out over the next six races to have a shot (or just have the McLarens take each other out).
It was a Ferrari quinella in Austin last year, who will take it out this time around?
To add to the drama we also have a sprint weekend coming with up to eight bonus points on offer for the winning driver.
Find our race preview and best bets below.
Track Stats
- Direction: Anti-Clockwise
- Lap Distance: 5.513km
- Total Laps: 56
- Race Distance: 308.405km
- Lap Record: 1:36.169 (2019, Charles Leclerc)
- 2024 Podium: Charles Leclerc (FER), Carlos Sainz (FER), Max Verstappen (RBR)
- Most Event Wins: Lewis Hamilton (2007, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017)
Race Winner
The McLaren dominance has come to an end and there is some real competition from Max Verstappen again who has two firsts and two seconds in each of the last four races.
That has the Dutchman on top of the race winner market and he has the form at this track, winning three straight before last year’s third place.
With the risk of the McLarens taking each other out now they are truly racing for themselves, it might be worth taking them on this weekend just because there may be an overarching desire from both drivers to make their case to be the true number one with the team.
Verstappen is not going to do it the easy way but he is going to do all he can to insert himself back into the World Championship discussion.
Max Verstappen to Win @ $2.75
Podium Finish
The in form driver behind Verstappen over the last two races is none other than Mercedes’ George Russell.
Over the last five races Russell has the best form line with a third, fourth, fifth, second and first in order, every other driver has finished ninth or worse in a race over that time.
Which makes his price in this market even more surprising and well worth a play.
While most of the bets in this preview are going to assume McLaren manages to commit some form of self sabotage that knocks out one or both of their drivers, there is a bit of value to be had pairing the two of them to finish on the podium.
It might not have been the best play recently, it has still been a winner on 12 occasions this season and if the drivers can stay disciplined, they’ll be in contention for a podium.
George Russell Podium Finish @ $2.30
SGM: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri Podium Finish @ $2.25
Top 6 Finish
With the potential for chaos, someone is going to be in position to take advantage of it and earn a few more points above what might have been expected in a full field of 20 drivers.
Let’s work off the assumption that none of the other big drivers stumble and it’ll be some combination of Verstappen, Russell and Leclerc plus the remaining McLarens filling out four of the six spots.
Mercedes seems like the best bet in this market to pull off a double top six, given Kimi Antonelli’s fourth and fifth over the last two races.
However Lewis Hamilton does have some form at this track going back to his second place finishes in 2021 and 2022.
He has been there or thereabouts for most of the season in terms of competing for the top six and if a spot was to open up, he would be the guy.
Ferrari Double Top 6 @ $2.20
Mercedes Double Top 6 @ $2.30
Points Finish
Just the one play for this market with Yuki Tsunoda a decent option at over even money.
He has three top ten finishes from four starts in Austin and is still fighting for his Red Bull job in 2026.
If he can qualify up the grid he should have the pace in the car to hold on for more points.
Yuki Tsunoda Points Finish @ $2.50
Driver Match Bets
I don’t buy into this conspiracy theory that McLaren is favouring Lando Norris in the drivers’ championship, and I’ll happily bet against it.
What is far more likely is that with a world title on the horizon, Piastri has picked up a minor case of the yips and he’ll be eager to put those struggles behind him this weekend.
Knowing he does not have to play the good soldier in the race for the constructor’s title now, Piastri can just drive and I love the value on him to beat Norris and bolster his lead in the overall standings.
Oscar Piastri to beat Lando Norris @ $2.00
Number of Classified Finishers
Fine weather is predicted in Austin for the entire weekend, maybe it’s a bit hot on the track but I think we’re going to have a relatively clean race.
Over 18.5 Finishers @ $2.75
United States Grand Prix Same Game Multi
Verstappen and Russell Podium, Leclerc Top 6, Sainz Points @ $10.62