The majors are here and Ladbrokes have the major value with their Saturday roughies for this weekend!
Group 1 racing for the autumn arrives with a star-studded Black Caviar Lightning field at HQ, and we’ve got all the day’s best longshots to lock in at Flemington.
There’s also plenty to get excited about in Sydney despite some diminutive fields in the day’s Group 2 features, and with a few odds-on fancies getting around we’re keen to lock in the forgotten chances in the markets at bigger odds in some Same Race Multis and exotics.
Luckless last week with only a couple of our selections running top four – let’s see if we can’t turn that around now the autumn is heating up!
The Value Whisperer has run her eye over the Saturday form lines and provides her top value racing selections below.
Randwick Race 6 – Group 2 $300,000 Light Fingers Stakes (1200m)
No. 5 Sunrays
SUNRAYS (5) looks massive value for exotics if she heads to Sydney for the Light Fingers.
Kelly Schweida’s tough little Hellbent filly barely puts a foot wrong — five wins from eight and only missed the money once — and she’s earned a crack at some interstate autumn cash.
Her Queensland Black‑Type form stacks up nicely too, with a Group 3 Ken Russell second behind Beadman back in May last year followed by back‑to‑back Listed wins in Brisbane.
Forget the first‑up run at Eagle Farm under 60.5kg – she’ll strip fitter, drops to 56kg, and Zac Lloyd is flying.
She’s unbeaten second‑up, handles 1200m no worries, and if she brings her Brisbane best, she’s a sneaky blowout chance.
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5. Sunrays (5)
J: Zac Lloyd 56kg
1x2x6T: Kelly Schweida
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Randwick Race 7 – Group 2 $300,000 Expressway Stakes (1200m)
No. 2 Coal Crusher
COAL CRUSHER (6) is one of just six remaining in the Expressway field which still oozes depth, and he looks a genuine place hope behind the classy Waller mares who dominate betting.
Joe Pride’s eight-year-old warhorse remained at the top of his game over the spring winning Newcastle’s The Hunter before a second to Weeping Woman at Randwick in mid-December’s Listed Razor Sharp with the 61kg topweight.
He’s got form around some very good types including Jimmysstar and Lady Shenandoah and has proven he can match motors with the top hopes when similarly forgotten by the punters last prep.
Two good lead-up trials at Warwick Farm including a recent winning hit out over Angel Capital and Joliestar at the start of the month so he’s ready to fire fresh.
Solid first-up record (10:2-2-1), always puts in a game performance, and with the blinkers on he’s expected to take up front running and give them something to chase.
Can hold for a run in the money.
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2. Coal Crusher (6)
J: Chad Schofield 57.5kg
6412xT: Joseph Pride
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Flemington Race 8 – Group 1 $1,000,000 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m)
No. 7 My Gladiola
What the Black Caviar Lightning field lacks in numbers, it certainly makes up for in class as we welcome back elite level racing for the autumn.
While MY GLADIOLA (8) isn’t an outright roughie – paying $7.50 at time of publish – in such an open market I’m still rating her as a top value selection to add into your Group 1 SRMs.
The money is starting to come for John McArdle’s bonny grey filly making now the time to lock her in before she firms further.
Coolangatta (2023) broke the drought of fillies in this race a couple of years back and this daughter of I Am Invincible ticks a few boxes to come close.
She handles Flemington well (3:1-2-0) and won’t find the 1000m too sharp having won her only other start at the distance.
All last prep was competitive including her Group 2 Danehill second to Mcgaw by the barest of margins in October and her second to Tentyris in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at double figures.
At her latest she ran third only 1.6 lengths beaten as the odds-on favourite at Caulfield in a Group 3 in mid-November, and she gets her chance fresh coming off a winning trial beating the Champions Sprint winner Giga Kick at Caulfield’s Heath track (see replay below).
Will be airborne at the low weight with Jamie Mott sticking with, and as a few of these are likely to need 1200m to really get going, I think she could surprise.
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7. My Gladiola (8)
J: Jamie Mott 53.5kg
1223xT: John Mcardle
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Randwick Race 8 – Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m)
No. 8 Stefi Magnetica
STEFI MAGNETICA (10) is a high-quality mare who doesn’t win all that often, but when she does it’s in top class.
She won a Stradbroke beating the mighty Bella Nipotina in June of 2024 at any old price then hit the winner’s stall again in April last year – also at huge odds – with an upset over Royal Patronage in the Doncaster Mile.
Her last turf triumph was in the $2 million The Invitation at this very track and trip in late October, and she franked that form doing well on a Heavy (9) Flemington track to round out the Champions Mile trifecta behind Ceolwulf.
Two recent Sydney trials have been excellent, she loves it here at Randwick (8:2-3-0), boasts a 50% winning strike rate over the 1400m (4:2-1-1) and has won fresh in the past.
Constantly underrated, she’s been trialling like a rocket and should land right on the unbeaten favourite Autumn Glow’s tail.
She’s got serious spark when she’s on top of her game, and if the big names start playing games up front, she’s the one with the firepower to land a real upset blow.
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8. Stefi Magnetica (10)
J: Jason Collett 57kg
x413xT: Bjorn Baker
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Flemington Race 9 – Group 3 $200,000 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m)
No. 6 Romantic Encounter
ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER (4) was flat fresh when dead last in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes behind Space Rider but gets the chance to improve and turn the tables second-up now.
The Ben, Will & JD Hayes-trained Ghaiyyath colt never got warm with plenty of excuses in the run last time out, and he’s much better placed here.
His run for second at big odds in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes last spring was excellent when chasing home West Of Swindon, who then had excuses in both the Guineas and Carbine Club.
If the tempo is more controlled this time, he can give this a real shake.
He traditionally improves sharply at this stage of a prep, and he’s got the talent to bounce right back from a favourable alley.
Don’t forget to also check out our latest edition of the The Lead-Up Lens: Runners and Races to Watch This Weekend where we unpack the path from the CS Hayes to the Group 1 Australian Guineas!
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6. Romantic Encounter (3)
J: Daniel Stackhouse 56kg
120×9T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes
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Randwick Race 9 – Group 3 $250,000 Triscay Stakes (1200m)
No. 11 Super Norwest
Any one of the mares in this year’s Triscay could win without surprise for me which opens things up, and one that looks well overs for good run is the airborne Matthew Dale-trained SUPER NORWEST (6).
In on just 53kg, this five-year-old daughter of Rich Enuff chases a hat-trick having gone back-to-back here at the same track and trip over the summer in easier company.
She deserves a shot at this level now, drops weight and has apprentice Braith Nock aboard again.
Fit and firing on all cylinders, she’s won at this stage of a campaign in the past and is drawn well midfield.
Needs to rise to the occasion but with the low weight and full of confidence I can see her running a big race late.
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11. Super Norwest (6)
J: Braith Nock 53kg
25×11T: Matthew Dale
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Flemington Race 10 – Group 3 $200,000 Frances Tressady Stakes (1400m)
No. 10 Paradise City
The card closer at HQ on Saturday sees some nice mares step out in the Frances Tressady, and one that’s been overlooked for mine is PARADISE CITY (11).
Hailing from the Moody/Coleman camp, this Deep Field five-year-old has a lovely 1400m strike rate (7:3-2-0) that she’s out to add to and brings in the confidence of a lead-up win at Pakenham on Jan 23.
At BM70 level against her own kind she carted 59kg to a narrow but tidy victory and she’ll relish coming back to 56kg with the flying Zac Spain coming aboard for the ride.
Her run prior was at this course and distance when second to Porter at BM74 level, and she’s reaching peak fitness now.
Expecting her to slide across from the wide gate and sit right up on the speed, and she looks a decent chance to stick with the task.
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10. Paradise City (10)
J: Zac Spain 56kg
7×821T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman
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Happy punting!