Saturday’s Best Bets: Randwick, Caulfield, Eagle Farm

I’m really keen on the chances of Sheza Alibi but for the sake of some variety, I’ll look at Eagle Farm for my best bet.

SCAMPI (3) returned in magnificent order at the Gold Coast last start and looks well placed to go back-to-back.

The Ciaron Maher-trained gelding enjoyed a nice run before letting down strongly to win by just under a length.

He’ll have come on since that run and loves this distance, having won four of eight starts.

With just 54kg on his back thanks to Jace McMurray’s claim and a good draw, he should prove hard to hold out.

KAYE JAY (10) is a big price, but I think he’ll give us a great run for our money in the Australian Derby on a 1×3 basis.

The Clayton Douglas-trained gelding showed a good turn of foot three starts back at to break his maiden over a mile on the Hillside track before finding the line nicely in the Group 2 Autumn Classic to finish 1.15 lengths fourth.

He was ridden upside down last start in the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes with William Pike deciding to lead and to his credit, he fought on gamely to finish just under a length third.

Mark Zahra goes on and we know he rises to the occasion when there’s a Group 1 title on the line.   

From the inside barrier he should enjoy an economic run.   

BRIASA (2) is looking to win back-to-back T J Smith Stakes titles and looks well placed to do so.

The Team Hawkes gelding produced an excellent effort first-up in the Group 1 Galaxy where despite racing wide throughout, he fought like a tiger to finish a neck fourth.

He flies second-up boasting three wins from four starts and follows the same setup as last year when he won, arguably entering this race in better fettle.

While he’s drawn the second from outside barrier, Tyler Schiller should be able to cross and settle handy in the run.

SHEZA ALIBI (15) has returned this preparation in supreme form and looks awfully hard to beat in the Doncaster Mile.

Following a first-up win in the Group 2 Angus Armanasco Stakes, the Moody & Coleman-trained filly ventured north where she put on a clinic in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas, smashing her rivals effortlessly over this course and distance.

She tuned up for this with a slick jump out win that signaled she’s on track.

With just 49kg on her back, good luck holding her out in the run home.

See my best roughie for an explanation of why I think Kaye Jay can win the Australian Derby.

INKARUNA (1) lines up for her third run this campaign and looks well placed to make an impact in the PJ Bell.

She has been remarkably consistent, finishing no worse than second in her past four starts, and was narrowly beaten in both the Listed Fireball and the Group 3 Birthday Card this preparation.

With improved fitness third-up and returning to three-year-old fillies’ grade, I can’t find a reason why she won’t be in the finish again.

LIVE (6) returns in a suitable race at Caulfield this week.

She hasn’t been seen since November, but made a strong impression early, winning on debut at Geelong before finishing runner-up to the talented Napoleonic in the Group 3 Red Anchor.

After also running into Sheza Alibi last time out, this represents a clear drop in class, and she comes into the race with the added benefit of a couple of lead-up trials ahead of Saturday’s resumption.

This year’s TJ Smith Stakes shapes as a high-quality contest with several leading chances, and I’m happy to back a couple of them.

TENTYRIS (7) wrapped up his 2025 campaign in style with a dominant win in the Coolmore Stud Stakes and carried that form into February with another excellent showing in the Black Caviar Lightning.

Although he didn’t finish off as strongly as expected under a bigger weight in the Newmarket last start, he looks to be at peak fitness here and should get every chance from the low draw.

BRIASA (2), the defending TJ Smith Stakes winner, also appeals. I was keen on him first-up in The Galaxy two weeks ago, where he travelled like the winner at the 250m before weakening late to finish fourth.

That run should bring him on nicely, and with this race clearly his main target, he’s expected to take significant improvement into it. In my opinion, he’s a great saver.

The Doncaster Mile looks another ideal race to back a main selection and include a value saver at longer odds.

SHEZA ALIBI (15) has continued to improve with every run, rising to each new challenge, and appears to have gone to another level this preparation—highlighted by a dominant victory in the Randwick Guineas last start.

With just 49kg on her back as a three-year-old filly and a touch of luck from barrier 13, she profiles as the one to beat.

GRINGOTTS (1), meanwhile, has been assigned the 58.5kg topweight, but he’s as genuine as they come.

After a solid return in the Canterbury Stakes, he produced a strong effort when finishing best of the rest behind Autumn Glow in the George Ryder last time.

Now fitter third-up and stepping out to the mile, he looks an excellent each-way chance at around the $17 mark (at publish).

I’m happy to stay with OBSERVER (1) as he lines up in the 2026 Australian Derby.

He ended his 2025 preparation on a high with a strong victory in the Victoria Derby and has continued that momentum this campaign, winning the Autumn Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield before adding the Australian Guineas to his record.

While he was comfortably beaten by Autumn Boy in the Rosehill Guineas last start, he remains a fit horse, gets the services of James McDonald, and is expected to be well suited stepping up to the mile and a half.

TERILEE (3) is a lightly raced mare from the Michael Kent yard who looks like she’s starting to hit her straps. 

She covered a bit of extra ground at Sandown last time over 1400m, peeled to the middle in the straight and let down with a strong turn of foot to score by 1.75 lengths. 

The Territories mare rolls along nicely on speed and, with six weeks between runs, shapes as though she’ll relish stepping out to the mile here. 

LIVE (6) resumes for Clinton McDonald and gets some weight relief with the 3kg claim. 

We saw plenty of this Zoustar filly in the spring, saluting on debut at Geelong before stepping up to Group 3 company at The Valley, where she stuck on well behind Napoleonic in the Red Anchor. 

Her recent Cranbourne jump-out suggests she’s come back in good order and can handle the 1200m fresh. With upside still there and back slightly in grade, she looks a solid each-way play. 

JOLIESTAR (6) goes around in search of her hat-trick following a dazzling performance to claim the Canterbury Stakes a few weeks ago over further.  

The Zoustar mare was given a 10/10 ride settling just in behind the speed under James McDonald, launching three-wide into the straight where she seemed to shift through the gears with relative ease on her way to winning by just over half a length. 

She presents fitter now third-up and was given a nice soft trial at Rosehill last week where she barely got up to a canter. Drawn well to get a similar run in transit, she should be incredibly hard to hold out.  

Keen to stick with AUTUMN BOY (7) on the back of his Rosehill Guineas triumph a fortnight earlier.  

Where he winds up from the inside barrier is a fair question, but there was everything to like about the way he savaged the line after finding the centre straight, largely thanks to a nice patient ride from J-Mac. 

Kerrin McEvoy steps back into the saddle after winning The Galaxy on the same day two weeks ago, and with the blinkers applied this time, I don’t think the step back to the mile is any problem. 

Tough race to feel confident in, but there was still plenty to like about the way GREEN SPACES (3) closed off in the Rosehill Guineas last time out, racing past Observer in the process. 

The Street Boss colt seemed to relish a bit of juice in the track that day and he may find similar conditions to suit with the chance of rain about. 

Presents fitter now for three runs back and Bjorn Baker’s team seem very confident in a race he’s always been set for.  

Streisand is all class and won the Blue Diamond with a close Slipper loss after that, but the record of the fillies in the Inglis Sires’ is pretty dismal so taking her at the price is risky.

Instead, I’m going all in on the progressive Chris Waller-trained CAMPIONE D’ITALIA (4) who comes from the right stable with star hoop James McDonald aboard in two big ticks.

Gate three is ideal, and I think this well-bred Snitzel colt oozes upside.

Was dead last on debut in the Lonhro Plate but has progressed well since breaking his maiden status first-up by a pimple in the Group 2 Skyline Stakes (1200m) here in late Feb at 40/1.

Thrown into the deep end after that contesting the Golden Slipper at just his third start and ran out of his skin to finish fourth when charging home from near last to finish just outside the trifecta in a really tenacious performance.

That effort and his racing pattern suggest the 1400m will make all the difference.

Saluted at the circuit and finally gets a set-up to suit.

The improver and value in this.

Absolutely can win.

OVERPASS (4) looks one of the more dangerous roughies in the TJ Smith, returning off two sharp Sydney trial wins that suggest he’s come back in terrific order for Bjorn Baker.

The seven‑year‑old speed machine will be right up on the pace with Mazu, and at his current quote he’s well over the odds for a horse who thrives fresh and loves Soft ground.

Josh Parr sticks with the ever‑honest gelding, who last prep ran fourth in The Everest at 50/1 before heading west and going agonisingly close to a third straight Winterbottom.

He resumes here for the first time since another narrow defeat in The Gold Rush, and now back racing on the east coast he’s impossible to dismiss.

There’s still plenty of elite racing left in him, and he’s exactly the type who can give this field a real scare at a price.

Place Bet.

Look, I could be silly tipping against the gun youngster Tentyris here, but Waller’s mare is firing on all cylinders and JOLIESTAR (6) is a lovely type who appeals as the value play in the TJ having won her past two on the trot.

The bonnie Zoustar five-year-old chases a hat-trick and is undefeated this time in.

She brings confidence and boasts a superior record in the Sydney features, which I think could prove key here.

The boxes are all ticked. The track? 11:5-2-1. The distance? 11:5-0-3. And Waller knows how to prepare himself a TJ winner having saddled-up three-time champ Nature Strip.

Fresh in the Group 2 Expressway, Joliestar was excellent beating home the subsequent, upset Newmarket champ Caballus – so, the form around her has held up.

At her latest she added the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) to her already glowing CV to become a four-time Group 1 winning mare.

Gate five and J-Mac in the saddle are two more pluses.

This is a test, but she continues to impress and I think she can keep the wins coming.

Yes, Sheza Alibi could prove too strong for her older rivals, but with the poor record of fillies in the Donnie I’m happy to look a little further down the markets and have an Each Way play on the very promising Chris Waller-trained AUTUMN BOY (7).

Drawn the rails and in on just 52kg, the classy The Autumn Sun colt brings in the confidence of a last start win in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) where he put some 1.94 lengths on Saturday’s ATC Derby favourite Green Spaces.

That atoned for his previous run when three lengths back second to Saturday’s better fancied filly in the Randwick Guineas.

It’s always a query coming back in trip (does he want further?!) but Waller is a master and I’m going to trust he knows that this guy is ready to fire again.

Inside alley hasn’t produced a Doncaster winner since Happy Clapper (2018) and it’s been a decade since Waller claimed his sixth win in this event with the mighty Winx (2016), but there’s been plenty of hype around this guy for some time and he did claim the Caulfield Guineas over a mile in the spring.

Trust Waller. Trust the value. Autumn Boy can prove himself here.

Going out on a limb and suggesting OBSERVER (1) can bounce back from his last start loss in the Rosehill Guineas and overcome a wide alley to return to winning form in the ATC Derby.

He’s chasing a rare interstate double as the reigning VRC Derby champ from the spring further south but has proved his ability again this prep going back-to-back in the Gr.2 Autumn Stakes and Gr. 1 Australian Guineas before his loss when lining-up in Syndey for the first time on Slipper Day.

Ciaron Maher’s Ghaiyyath colt will relish the 2400m now – which is a question over a few of his rivals – having taken out the Flemington feature over 2500m in the spring with authority.

Autumn Boy and Green Spaces, the latter the narrow favourite for Saturday’s rematch, got the better of him in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m last time out but I think the step up in trip will be the big difference here.

He’s got the Sydney run under his belt now and improves.

Three weeks between runs has him the right balance of fit and rested.

Having watched the replay a few times, his latest run really was very tenacious.

From the alley he’ll likely roll forward, attempting to replicate his bold, all-the-way tactics that won him last spring’s Victoria Derby.

Add J-Mac to the saddle and it looks to be his for the taking.