2026 NFL Draft Betting Preview

The NFL Draft is finally here and honestly, if you’ve been trying to make sense of the mock drafts floating around the internet, you’re not alone.

Majority of the experts are all over the shop this year which, funnily enough, is exactly where the betting value hides.

I’ve gone full tism mode and tracked a heap of different mock drafts from the top dogs to average out where they have players going to see if we can extrapolate some betting value from that.

Here’s a few plays that I think could be worth a look at.

TOP 10 PICKS

Rueben Bain Jr. – Top 10 Pick @ $1.67

The Miami edge rusher is the most consistently projected player outside the top five across every mock I looked at, with majority of the experts placing him somewhere between picks seven and nine. That’s tight consensus for a bloke available at $1.67. Top 5 no, top 10 yes I reckon

Spencer Fano – Top 10 Pick @ $1.83

One of the more speculative picks with 50% of the mocks I looked at having him outside the top 10 but o-line is a valuable position and it seems a bit thin at the top this year. We could see a run.

FIRST WIDE RECEIVER DRAFTED

Jordyn Tyson – First WR Drafted @ $2.60

Carnell Tate is the favourite here at $1.50 and fair enough, he’s the consensus top receiver in this class. But here’s the thing – 75% of the mocks actually have Tyson going before Tate, with the Arizona State wideout projected at picks eight, nine and ten in those drafts.

He has had some injury concerns through college but has enough talent for a team to take a gamble on him.

EXACT PICK SPECIALS

Jeremiyah Love – Pick #4 @ $1.95

75% of the mock drafts I pulled from have the Notre Dame running back landing exactly at four to the Titans. The Titans look like a decent fit and need to give Cam Ward something on offence, why not go get the best player in the draft

Arvell Reese – Pick #3 @ $3.25

Every single mock I looked at has the Ohio State linebacker going either second or third overall. The market has him at $1.36 for pick two and $3.25 for pick three, implying he’s more likely to go second. But the mocks I looked at split exactly 50/50 between the two spots. Chasing a bit of value here, lets roll the dice.

Rueben Bain Jr. – Pick #8 @ $5.60

I spruiked him early for a top 10 pick so let’s lock him in at 8 to the Saints.

Sonny Styles – Pick #5 @ $2.90

One of the best players in the draft and seems to tick a lot of boxes for the New York Giants. I think this is the guy that John Harbaugh starts his career in New York with.

OVER/UNDER DRAFT POSITION

Akheem Mesidor – UNDER 25.5

Another one where 75% of the mocks I looked at has the Miami edge rusher going before pick 25. His consensus average sits at 22.0 and his range across four mocks is 15 to 31, with three of the four well under the line. The bookies have set this at 25.5 and my data says that’s way too generous. The standout play of the over/under market.

Jermod McCoy – UNDER 28.5

The Tennessee cornerback is another bloke the bookies have priced way too late. His consensus average across our mocks is 22.3 which puts him more than six picks ahead of the line on average. 75% have him well under 28.5 and while there is one outlier at 31, the weight of evidence points firmly to the under. Strong play.

Jordyn Tyson – OVER 8.5

Tyson pops up twice in this article and for different reasons. While we like him as a value play to be the first receiver drafted, the over/under market tells a slightly different story. His consensus average is 12.0 and only one mock has him inside the 8.5 line. The same PFF outlier that dragged his first WR price out actually helps us here. Decent little hedge play.

Francis Mauigoa – UNDER 9.5

The Miami offensive tackle is one of the more polarising prospects in this class from a betting perspective. Tankathon has him flying off the board at three but Kiper and PFT are considerably cooler, placing him at ten and eleven respectively. The consensus average of 7.3 sits under the 9.5 line and three of four mocks support the under. Good play. Genuinely don’t mind him as a top 5 pick to Arizona for $5.60 too.

Denzel Boston – UNDER 28.5

The Washington receiver keeps getting projected well clear of this line. Every mock that features him has him going before pick 28 with a consensus average of 24.0. That’s nearly five picks ahead of the line on average. Not the sexiest play in the article but the data is clean and consistent.