Saturday Roughie Tips – July 18, 2026

Punters chasing Saturday roughies, outsider chances, and big‑odds value runners are in for a treat this weekend. Ladbrokes has dug through the form, hunted for overs, and landed on a handful of runners who can give you a cheeky Saturday fill‑up at double‑figure prices.

The winter racing continues around the nation on Saturday including Black-Type in Sydney thanks to the Winter Challenge and some cracking cards at Flemington and Doomben.

Here we’ve sorted the best Saturday roughies actually capable of an upset from the outsiders whose big odds are justified.

Below Ladbrokes own Value Whisperer Lucy Henderson has her top value racing selections worth a nibble across the July 18 metro meetings.

What are the Best Value Outsiders for July 18?

• Rosehill Race 1 – No. 1 Internal Affairs
• Doomben Race 1 – No. 4 Jungle Rhythm
• Rosehill Race 6 – No. 7 Tequila Baby
• Flemington Race 5 – No. 15 Jimmy Beans
• Rosehill Race 9 – No. 3 War Eternal

Race‑by‑Race Roughie Picks

Rosehill Race 1 – Early Insider Value Play

No. 1 Internal Affairs

INTERNAL AFFAIRS (9) is second up in the Rosehill opener and appeals at double-figures after a winning return last time out.

Brad Widdup’s progressive Home Affairs colt is beautifully bred and looks like he could shape up to be as classy as his father if he continues on the same trajectory.

Second-up in his first prep he was eye-catching when runner-up in the Inglis Nursery at Randwick in mid-December, and he comes in confident second-up again now after breaking his maiden status fresh at Hawkesbury on June 23.

Carried 56.5kg to victory as the odds-on elect in that event off a lengthy break on Soft going and is deserving of a shot at this class up to the six furlongs.

Likely to settle back but looks every hope to make up some late ground and feature in the finish.

New winner for Home Affairs

Internal Affairs (2c Home Affairs x Kononkop) for @BWiddupRacing
440k buy for Mulberry Racing from @Morningrisestud @inglis_sales Premier

Season winner 14 for the sire@CoolmoreAus pic.twitter.com/r23xmKFORx

— Breednet (@BreednetNews) June 23, 2026

Doomben Race 1 – Juiciest Brisbane Roughie Tip

No. 4 Jungle Rhythm

We’ve got an odds-on favourite in the first in Brisbane but outside the obvious I’ve landed on the Liam Birchley-trained JUNGLE RHYTHM (6) for a top three finish at any old price.

One who I suspect can measure up here despite a current 45/1 starting price, this up-and-coming Jungle Cat gelding has his first run in the big city and has been completely left alone by the punters despite a strong win at his latest.

After a solid second on debut at the Sunshine Coast in mid-March on a Heavy (8) track with 59kg behind Sling, he improved to win a Rockhampton maiden over 1100m on June 19.

Put 1.46 lengths on the next best over the line despite giving away 4kg to the runner-up.

He was doing his best work late there suggesting the rise to 1200m should suit and he’ll relish a nice drop back to 56.5kg with Jag Guthmann-Chester sticking in the saddle.

This is a whole new challenge, but I’m happy to give him the chance to prove he’s up to it.

JUNGLE RHYTHM pulls away late and wins comfortably at Rockhampton for trainer, Liam Birchley! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/BGhNVc2YCG

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 19, 2026

Rosehill Race 6 – Saturday Roughie Special

No. 7 Tequila Baby

Drinks on me if this one gets up in Sydney! TEQUILA BABY (12) is drawn near the carpark in this F&M BM78 but if the four-year-old daughter of Capitalist can get the right run, she could be the surprise package of the day.

A four-time winner from 14 starts, three of her victories have been over this distance which she’s got an overall 50% winning strike rate over.

Was sixth fresh at this level at 60/1 at Randwick on June 6 before dropping back slightly in grade at Warwick Farm to finish under a length runner-up to Zale with 56kg a month ago.

Kept fresh for this, will enjoy getting up to her pet trip now and the booking of Zac Lloyd is a big tick for mine.

Heavy course is a bit of a concern but that makes the wider alley more favourable.

She can slot in with cover, tongue tie goes on, don’t overlook.

Flemington Race 5 – Best Outsider in Melbourne

No. 15 Jimmy Beans

JIMMY BEANS (8) looks the best roughie at Flemington on Saturday getting into this 3YOs Handicap on a postage stamp allocation which should see him flying.

The son of Redwood has been the picture of consistency across his four starts to date recording a trio of second placings with the Freedmans before finally shrugging off his maiden status when on debut for Clayton Douglas at Sale on July 9.

He was enormous on a bottomless track over 1429m carting 59.5kg to a 2.5 length romp home as the odds-on favourite over Flying Gentry.

Needs to go to another level at this grade heading to HQ now but will be airborne carrying just 51.5kg thanks to Luke Cartwright’s claim.

Gets another rain-affected track to suit and I think he’s been crying out for a distance like this.

Blinkers go on, should eat up the metres late and cannot go past him in the exotics at this weight.

Sale Race 3 | Jimmy Beans

"Here comes Jimmy!" 💥

After three consecutive seconds, the 3YO gelding finally enters the winner's stall with a booming finish for @jamieleemott 💪

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/9ZyTqQSRBJ

— Racing.com (@Racing) July 9, 2026

Rosehill Race 9 – Top Winter Challenge Exotics Chance

No. 3 War Eternal

We finish with the feature race of the weekend and for value in this year’s Winter Challenge field I really like the credentials of WAR ETERNAL (7) who is paying $11 at time of publish.

The Bjorn Baker-trained Pierro gelding has been in flying form having won three Listed races on the trot in Brisbane before a last start second to Sun Gold over the Eagle Farm mile when carrying a hefty 60.5kg in the Listed Tatts Mile.

Right up to this grade, has been a real winter revelation despite being a rising eight-year-old and I find it hard to knock a horse going this well.

Winning form here at Rosehill (9:2-1-1) with a decent record at the track, his last Sydney assignment back in early May produced a close third when under a length off Churchill’s Choice at 30/1 in the Group 3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1600m).

A genuine miler, the 1500m is right within his wheelhouse and he presents rock-hard fit.

Rachel King comes back aboard having ridden him for back-to-back wins earlier this prep in the Listed Spear Chief Handicap (1500m) on 59.5kg at a forgotten price as well as the Listed Wayne Wilson when this guy overcame a Heavy (9) track to deny Yellow Jersey.

Handles all going, midfield draw with options and has proven he can carry this kind of weight to victory against this level of competition.

Aptly named, he’s a warhorse who just continues to improve denying old father time.

Great placing by Baker.

That’s the lot for July 18 — Hendo’s Hopefuls locked and loaded. A few overs, a few smokies, and a couple of proper Hendo‑style swings to keep things interesting. If you’re the type who doesn’t mind a crack at a roughie, these are the ones you’ll want in your Same Race Multis at Ladbrokes.

Happy punting!

FAQ – Saturday Roughies & Value Betting

What is a roughie?

A roughie is a horse starting at big odds — usually double‑figures — that has enough upside or hidden form to run a bold race.

How do you pick Saturday roughies?

I look for:

• Horses dropping in grade
• Last start winners overlooked stepping up in grade
• Strong late sectionals
• Runners coming back in the weights
• Maps that improve their chances
• Market overreactions
• Conditions that suit their pattern
• Key trainer/jockey combos
• Proven performers on the going / track specialists
• Progressive types showing upside

Why bet on roughies?

Because they offer value. You don’t need many to salute — one good roughie can make your whole Saturday.

Are roughies risky?

Of course. But that’s half the fun. The key is finding runners whose true winning chance is better than their market price.