Saturday Roughie Tips – July 25, 2026
Looking for the best Saturday roughies to get behind at big odds this weekend? Ladbrokes have you covered with our top value racing selections to warm up your winter.
We say goodbye to Group racing for another season with Bletchingly Stakes Day at Caulfield on Saturday, and we’ve combed the form guides to unearth the forgotten runners capable of an upset.
With high-quality race cards playing out all around the nation including at Eagle Farm and Randwick, now is the time to capitalise on the market movers and juicy prices on offer for some of the upcoming spring hopefuls.
The Value Whisperer, Lucy Henderson, provides her best roughie bets for the July 25 metro meetings below.
What are the Best Value Outsiders for July 25?
- Randwick Race 1 – No. 1 Eviction Notice
- Caulfield Race 1 – No. 7 Mystery ‘N’ Drama
- Eagle Farm Race 3 – No. 4 Lady Wardell
- Randwick Race 4 – No. 3 It’s A Tata
- Randwick Race 5 – No. 15 Rose Water
- Eagle Farm Race 7 – No. 10 Smexy
- Caulfield Race 7 – No. 2 Recommendation
Best Saturday Roughie Tips
Randwick Race 1 – Sydney Early Bird Special
No. 1 Eviction Notice
EVICTION NOTICE (8) gets my tick of approval as a Sydney value swing this Saturday — a proper each‑way smoky at around the $12 quote.
The Waterhouse/Bott camp know how to turn a two‑year‑old into a tough little racehorse, and while this Stay Inside colt is still a maiden after five starts, he’s been mixing it with the big boys all season.
He wasn’t just making up the numbers either — he ran third in the Group 3 Canonbury and then chased home Stretan Ruler for second in the Group 2 Silver Slipper at 25/1.
That’s serious form for a horse still learning the caper.
He kicked off his winter prep a fortnight back at Warwick Farm, finishing runner‑up behind Castillo King. Yes, he peaked late and was beaten a few lengths, but that run screamed improvement for mine.
Fitter, sharper, and ready to give this a shake now.
Adam Hyeronimus jumps aboard, and while the youngster gives a bit of weight away, it’s worth remembering his Silver Slipper heroics came at this exact stage of his prep last time in.
He’s expected to roll forward, take it up, and try to pinch it — and I reckon he can hang on for a podium at the very least.
At double‑figure odds, he’s one of the more appealing Saturday roughies on the card and a genuine Hendo’s Hopefuls each‑way play.
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1. Eviction Notice (8)
J: Adam Hyeronimus 59kg
327×2T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
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| Second run back. First-up after four months led but faded 2nd of 9 at Warwick Farm 2yo C&G Mdn-Sw on July 15 over 1100m, on a slow track; 3 len behind Castillo King carrying 56kg at $2.60. Previously second-up 2nd of 9 at Rosehill in the G2 Silver Slp on February 21 over 1100m, 3.5 len behind Stretan Ruler with 56.5kg at $31. Hard to see him troubling the top chances this time. | |||
Caulfield Race 1 – Mystery Melbourne Long-Shot
No. 7 Mystery ‘N’ Drama
MYSTERY ‘N’ DRAMA (10) resumes in the Bletchingly Stakes Day opener and looks lovely value for a big run fresh for Moody & Coleman.
This consistent young Lucky Vega filly quickly rose through the grades last prep, breaking her maiden at Sandown in January when saluting odds-on over Jimmy Beans before taking on the older mares with a light weight over the Caulfield mile and saluting by a quarter-length in a BM74.
She was thrown in the deep end when lining-up in the Group 2 Angus Armanasco at 30/1 back on February 21 and ran out of her skin to finish third behind Sheza Alibi and Salty Pearl.
That proved an elite autumn form line with Sheza Alibi going on to complete the Group 1 Randwick Guineas – Doncaster Mile double, which bodes very well for this girl.
Trialled up okay at Pakenham ahead of her return, she lands in an open BM74 and is very well weighted thanks to Luke Cartwright’s claim.
Wide gate not ideal over the sharp 1200m here but not ruling out a run in the money based on her strong efforts last campaign in elite company.
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7. Mystery ‘N’ Drama (10)
J: Luke Cartwright 59kg
3113xT: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman
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| Filly back from a spell of five months. Has placed previously first up from a break. Finished off last campaign third of 9 at this track in the G2 Armanasco February 21 over 1400m, 2.75 len behind Sheza Alibi with 56kg at $31. Previously first up; second of 9 at Geelong 3yo Mdn-Sw November 8 over 1135m, on heavy track; 0.5 len behind Nostra Bella with 55kg at $6. Form last time stands out, wary. | |||
Eagle Farm Race 3 – Big Brisbane Roughie
No. 4 Lady Wardell
LADY WARDELL (8) is another resuming chance on Saturday who looks overs in the markets at Eagle Farm for mine.
The Stephen & Jordan Lee-trained Exosphere mare was the picture of consistency last campaign around the Northern NSW tracks placing top three in her last four starts.
A genuine short-distance specialist, she’s had three goes over the 1000m for two seconds and a third and does some of her best work fresh (5:1-2-1).
Drops in grade from her last start when second at Grafton in a BM82 on January 25 over 1048m.
Flying apprentice Jai Williams gets her in on a favourable weight, and he’s doing plenty right of late.
Likely to settle off them, but I can see a big finish.
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4. Lady Wardell (7)
J: Jai Williams 60kg
3122xT: Stephen & Jordan Lee
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| Resuming. Finished off last campaign second of 8 at Grafton Return Bm82 January 25 over 1048m, 2 len behind Royal Commodore carrying 57.5kg at $2.70. Previously first up; second of 11 at Grafton March Hare March 16 2025 over 1175m, 0.9 len behind My Mum’s Toyboy with 53.5kg at $3.60. Not out of this by any stretch. | |||
Randwick Race 4 – Sydney Stunner to Soup Up Exotics
No. 3 It’s A Tata
IT’S A TATA (7) pays close to $20 at time of publish which is a massive price for a progressive three-year-old in such super form.
The Pierata gelding has found his best now winning four on the trot ahead of this acid test.
Got his maiden win on the board back in early January at Gilgandra and hasn’t put a foot wrong since.
Working his way through the grades, his latest had him in the city when underrated ($31) at Rosehill in a Highway Class 3 over the six furlongs which he scored a narrow boilover in.
Obviously, this is tougher again, but he made up ground from midfield last start, so I think he’ll get the 1300m without worry.
Apprentice Izzy Neale, who has been happy to sing this guy plenty of praises, has a strong strike rate with this him, he gets conditions to suit and at the price I have to include him in the exotics.
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3. It’s A Tata (7)
J: Izzy Neale 59kg
11×11T: Brett Robb
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| Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up came from midfield and won by a nose at Warren Ctry Cl3 June 14 over 1000m on a soft track defeating Bolo Miss carrying 56kg at $4.40. Last start ran on from midfield and won by a neck at Rosehill Highway-C3 July 4 over 1200m in soft going defeating Indi Springs with 55kg at $26. Harder here and place preferred. | |||
Randwick Race 5 – Underrated Bloomer
No. 15 Rose Water
ROSE WATER (6) has made it into this F&M BM78 thanks to a host of early scratchings and remains underrated in the markets paying $15 at time of publish to make it three straight.
Jason Deamer’s four-year-old daughter of Calyx scratched out of an earlier mile race on this card in favour of running over the 1800m where she’s extremely well weighted with just 52kg and gets senior hoop Rachel King aboard in a big plus.
First run at the track and go at this distance, but she’s been excellent going back-to-back in two lower grade events at Taree to earn a shot at this.
She’s been the favourite saluting for the punters recently off on speed runs boxing on very well but is value now looking to prove herself at this level.
Relishes the give out of the ground, drops weight, can surprise late.
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15. Rose Water (6)
J: Rachel King 52kg
73411T: Jason Deamer
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| Dual acceptor. Most recently favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 1.0 len at Taree Bm58 July 9 over 1614m in the wet defeating Thinkin’ Bo You carrying 60kg at $1.45. The race before that favourite; raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 3 len at Taree Cl1-Sw June 23 over 1600m in the wet defeating Smokey Saint carrying 57kg at $1.35. Others rate better this time. | |||
Eagle Farm Race 7 – Spicy Eagle Farm Outsider
No. 10 Smexy
SMEXY (3) profiles as super value later on the Brisbane race card and I’m more than happy to take advantage of the juicy odds on offer for this talented Pierata filly.
Hailing from the Sunshine Coast, she has her eighth run at Eagle Farm where she’s recorded three second placings to date.
Her recent form has been solid including a close fourth at a big price in Ipswich’s TL Cooney on June 20 doing her best work late and a last start third at Doomben over 1350m when a neck off Navy Pilot in what looks a strong form race.
Decent strike rate over the seven furlongs, and I like Cejay Graham coming aboard from a favourable alley.
On the improve, definitely in this weight wise and hitting peak form at the right time.
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10. Smexy (3)
J: Cejay Graham 54kg
77043T: Natalie Mccall
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| Recent form sound. Most recently 3rd of 13 at Doomben 3yo Hcp on July 11 over 1350m, head behind Navy Pilot carrying 51.5kg at $8.50. The run before that came home strongly from last on the turn; 4th of 14 at Ipswich T L Cooney on June 20 over 1350m, slow going 1.3 len behind Kohler Kid with 55.5kg at $18. Racing well now and will take plenty of beating. | |||
Caulfield Race 7 – Forgotten Caulfield Feature Contender
No. 2 Recommendation
Adding a bit of value and intrigue to my Bletchingly Stakes predictions is my top roughie of the pack, RECOMMENDATION (9), winner of the Monash and this event a couple of years ago.
The Ciaron Maher-trained Shalaa gelding hasn’t been first past the post since August in 2024 when claiming that year’s The Heath, has raced in Hong Kong, ran well for a third in the Monash last year and is out to improve on his fifth to Birdal Waltz in this event 12 months ago when 1.75 lengths beaten.
His form has definitely been hit and miss since, but I thought his Monash performance this season when crossing a midfield sixth in a tight finish was full of merit.
He was taken back the early stages in that key lead-up and still had under a length separating him and the winner.
Depends which version of this bloke we get on Saturday, I can’t see him winning in an upset, but a Top 4 run adding value to some exotics isn’t out of the question.
Check out my complete 2026 Bletchingly Stakes Tips, Predictions & Preview!
That’s the book closed for July 25 — Hendo’s Hopefuls ready to roll. Overs on the table, smokies in the mix, and a few bold swings for the value hunters. If you’re chasing a roughie to boost your multis, these are the runners to plug into your Same Race Multis.
Good luck punters!
Saturday Racing Previews
Saturday Roughies – FAQ
What are Saturday roughies?
Saturday roughies are long‑priced runners that the market doesn’t expect to win — but they’ve got enough form, upside or map to run a cheeky race at big odds.
How do I find value runners?
Value runners usually show something in their form that the market hasn’t fully priced: a good map, a class drop, a strong sectional, or a setup that suits them better than it looks on paper.
What is a good each‑way roughie?
A good each‑way roughie is a horse at double‑figure odds that’s capable of landing in the top three. They don’t need to win — they just need the right profile to give you a return on both sides of the bet.
Why do roughies pop up on Saturdays?
Saturday metro racing has deeper fields and stronger tempos, which creates more chances for outsiders to run on, find gaps, and cause an upset.
Are roughies good for multis?
Roughies can add serious value to multis, especially in the place legs. Most punters balance them with safer picks to keep the ticket alive.
Where can I find more roughie tips?
Hendo’s Hopefuls drops fresh roughie plays every week on the Ladbrokes Blog, plus extra value runners across the major metro meetings.
