Only three weeks of footy remain before finals, and the pressure is well and truly on, with a logjam of teams still fighting to stay in the Wild Card mix.
AFL Round 22 starts with a bang as the Dogs face North in a clash carrying major ladder implications, before Friday night’s Gabba showdown between an injury-hit Lions outfit and Hawthorn shapes as another crucial contest.
Then on Sunday, the stakes rise again when the Saints meet the Blues in a finals-style 10th vs 11th battle that could leave one side’s September hopes hanging by a thread.
See below for our complete 2026 AFL Round 22 predictions, tips and best Aussie Rules bets to place this weekend!
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Predictions
North face another high-stakes clash as their season continues to slip away.
The Roos were brave in Tassie against Hawthorn last week, but there’s no hiding from the fact they were beaten up around centre clearances, allowing the Hawks to generate 61 inside 50s.
Nick Larkey’s form has been under the microscope for much of the season, while goalkicking proved costly for the Dogs last week in their 5.11 loss to Fremantle.
The Bulldogs also have injury concerns in attack, with Cody Weightman and Aaron Naughton both under clouds, adding another layer of intrigue as they look to hold their place in the Wild Card race.
Unlike last week, though, the Dogs should be able to return to their usual attacking brand rather than spending large patches flooding defensive 50 to contain the Dockers.
North are capable of causing an upset if they can dominate at the stoppages and produce another fast start, but their ongoing struggle to put together four quarters makes the Dogs the safer play, especially with pressure continuing to build on Alastair Clarkson.
Prediction: Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20
Value: Bulldogs to Win & Under the Total
Player Pick: Cooper Trembath 2+ Goals
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Predictions
This shapes as the clear game of the round, with Hawthorn looking to all but lock away third spot on the ladder.
Brisbane, meanwhile, is suddenly scrapping to hold its place in the Top 6 after last week’s shock loss to Carlton — a result made even worse by injuries to Ryan Lester, Logan Morris, Keidean Coleman, and Hugh McCluggage.
The Hawks also had their hands full in Tassie, surviving a scare against a spirited North side that jumped them early — not too dissimilar to the fast start they conceded against Melbourne a few weeks earlier.
Slow starts have become a bit of a concern for Sam Mitchell’s side this season, though it certainly helps when they can call on moments of individual brilliance, like Nick Watson’s electric third-quarter burst last week.
A packed Gabba is expected for this one, and if their last meeting is anything to go by, we should be in for a beauty.
The back-to-back premiers edged the Hawks by 10 points in Round 25, but with Karl Amon likely to return and Hawthorn looking the healthier side overall, there’s a strong case to be made for the brown and gold as they chase a Top 4 berth.
Prediction: Hawks to Cover (+2.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Hawks to Win @ $2.00
Player Pick: Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals
Melbourne vs Fremantle Predictions
The Dockers take to the road sitting 12 points clear on top of the ladder, and it will be interesting to see how Justin Longmuir approaches selection over the next few weeks.
For Melbourne, there is still plenty at stake, with a Top 6 finish far from locked in — even after last Sunday’s controversial win over the Gold Coast, where the Dees dominated through the middle.
Melbourne have caused problems for some quality opposition this season, but it’s hard to ignore what happened when these sides met in Round 2, with Fremantle handing them a 48-point defeat.
The Dockers piled on a six-goal lead by quarter-time and controlled the contest from there, while the Dees had few answers for Andrew Brayshaw and Shai Bolton through the centre, with both racking up 30-plus disposals.
On their day, Melbourne are capable of troubling any contender, but their scoring has been inconsistent of late, and it’s tough to see Max Gawn dragging them over the line again like he did against the Suns.
If Fremantle are switched on and handle the travel factor, they should have enough quality to get the job done.
Prediction: Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.20
Value: Fremantle to Win & Under the Total
Player Pick: Shai Bolton 2+ Goals
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Predictions
From a Port Adelaide perspective, the end of the season probably can’t come quickly enough.
The Power slumped to a fourth straight loss against the Giants last week, which was hardly a shock given the injury list they’re currently dealing with.
Sydney, meanwhile, remain firmly on track for a second-place finish, but with Hawthorn breathing down their necks and Will Edwards suffering a season-ending injury last week, the Swans can’t afford to take any opponent lightly over the final rounds.
The Bloods were slow out of the blocks against St Kilda last week before mounting a second-half response, driven by the usual class of Isaac Heeney, Nick Blakey, and Chad Warner.
Defensive lapses and turnovers remain areas of concern, but Sydney also possess the kind of knockout punch that sides like Fremantle and Brisbane lean on when the heat is on. If that shows up on Saturday, this could get ugly for Port.
Prediction: Swans to Cover (-35.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Swans 40+ @ $2.00
Player Pick: Chad Warner 25+ Disposals
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Predictions
We could be set for another one-sided contest, much like when these two sides met at this stage last year.
The Cats cruised to a 44-point win over the Dons at GMHBA Stadium in Round 22, and based on Essendon’s recent form, there isn’t much to suggest Saturday night’s margin will be any closer.
The Bombers’ coaching search continues, with Dean Solomon yet to spark a meaningful response, while this is a key opportunity for Geelong as they keep their Top 4 hopes alive ahead of meetings with North and Richmond.
The Cats are averaging seven more scoring shots and six more goals per game than the Dons, making this a prime percentage-boosting spot for Chris Scott’s side, especially with a few extra days’ rest up their sleeve.
Prediction: Geelong to Cover (-64.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Cats to Win & Over the Total
Player Pick: Oliver Dempsey 2+ Goals
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Predictions
The Crows are humming with four wins from their last five, and there’s a fair case to be made that Matthew Nicks’ side could be one of the more dangerous dark horses heading into finals, regardless of where they finish on the ladder.
Riley Thilthorpe was everywhere in last week’s 72-point demolition of Essendon, though he was arguably outshone by Izak Rankine, who finished with three goals, 23 disposals, and likely a strong claim on the Brownlow votes.
Richmond, meanwhile, are entitled to enjoy last week’s win over West Coast, although it’s fair to say the Eagles may have pinched it had they made more of their chances in front of goal.
A trip to Adelaide Oval is a completely different challenge, especially at a venue where the Tigers haven’t faced the Crows since 2024.
Their recent meetings with Adelaide in Melbourne haven’t gone to plan either, with Richmond losing the last two by an average margin of 52 points.
Prediction: Crows to Cover (-57.5 Points) @ $1.90
Player Pick: Taylor Walker 3+ Goals
GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Suns Predictions
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Suns as they stare down the harsh reality of a 10-game losing streak.
It was a familiar script against Melbourne last week, with Gold Coast running out of steam in the final term and again conceding far too much damage from centre clearances.
Something clearly isn’t clicking on the coaching front, and while Damien Hardwick’s future may be under scrutiny, the Giants are focused on mounting a late charge back into the Wild Card conversation.
Snapping a two-game losing run against Port Adelaide was a positive step for GWS, with encouraging signs at both ends of the ground. Jake Stringer hit the scoreboard, while Lachie Whitfield filled the stat sheet across almost every key category.
Still, despite their recent record, the Suns should offer more resistance than Port, particularly with Jed Walter and Matt Rowell beginning to find some form.
With Brisbane and St Kilda to come, this may be Gold Coast’s best chance to finally end their horror run.
Prediction: Suns to Cover (+18.5 Points)
Value: Suns to Win @ $3.05
Player Pick: Matt Rowell 30+ Disposals
West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Predictions
The Pies head west with a few questions to answer after a slow start left them chasing the game early against Geelong last week.
Craig McRae’s side had no real answers for Ollie Dempsey and Oliver Henry in the 25-point defeat, and it will be interesting to see what changes he makes at selection with a favourable matchup against an out-of-sorts West Coast outfit.
As mentioned, the Eagles were wasteful in front of goal in last week’s loss to Richmond — a game they really should have won, particularly with Harley Reid doing everything he could to drag them over the line.
Collingwood have won four straight against West Coast dating back to 2022, though it’s worth noting their Round 11 meeting earlier this season was decided by just 10 points.
The Eagles were much cleaner by foot that day and actually won the clearance battle, having led by as much as 10 points at the main break.
Last week’s display doesn’t inspire much confidence, but with a point to prove and a final-month chance to salvage something from the season, West Coast may be capable of making this competitive.
Prediction: West Coast to Cover (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Quarter 1/2/3/4 Leader – Any Other Result @ $2.15
Player Pick: Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals
St Kilda vs Carlton Predictions
Marvel Stadium should be close to packed on Sunday night for a clash that has all the feel of an elimination final between 10th and 11th.
The Saints will have spent the week ruing the one that got away against Sydney. Ross Lyon’s side held a four-goal lead at one stage, only to concede 45 points in the final term, with injuries to Jack Silvagni and Tom De Koning adding further pain.
Carlton, meanwhile, are making it very difficult for the board not to hand Josh Fraser the full-time coaching job in 2027.
A stirring 76-point win over back-to-back premiers Brisbane was the highlight of the post-Michael Voss era so far, and there may still be more to come with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, and young gun Jagga Smith all playing outstanding footy.
This shapes as a tight contest from the opening bounce, but the big question is whether the Saints can withstand the inevitable momentum swings.
They were strong on the wing against Sydney last week but lacked polish going inside 50, especially once the Swans began to surge.
With Harry McKay also finding touch in Carlton’s forward half, the Blues look to have the edge.
Prediction: Carlton to Win @ $1.73
Value: Carlton 1-39 @ $2.35
Player Pick: Jack Higgins 2+ Goals