With only two rounds before the AFL finals, the jostling for positions in the top 10 (still sounds weird) is heating up.
From a Hawthorn vs Collingwood blockbuster at the ‘G to a Bulldogs vs Carlton battle in 9th and 10th, there’s never been more on the line for these teams.
See below for our complete 2026 AFL Round 23 predictions, tips and best Aussie Rules bets to place this weekend!
Fremantle vs Adelaide Predictions
Round 23 kicks off on Friday night (excuse me, where’s Thursday!?) with Fremantle looking to officially lock up the minor premiership when it hosts Adelaide at Optus Stadium.
The ladder-leading Dockers arrive off the back of ‘the game they needed to lose’, falling short in a 113-109 classic against Melbourne at the MCG.
Alex Pearce will be a key inclusion after his week off, while big Sean Darcy put his hand up for selection with 56 hit-outs and 18 disposals in the WAFL. Don’t do it, JL.
Meanwhile, Adelaide slogged it out in the wet for a nine-point win over Richmond, but it was the 36-disposal, 11-clearance and one-goal performance from Izak Rankine that will have Crows fans licking their lips come finals. If he remains tight-lipped etc.
Fremantle are short enough at $1.36 and while the Crows have shown they can match it with the best, the Dockers’ home record in the west (12 in a row) remains close to untouchable.
Richmond vs St Kilda Predictions
Saturday’s big day of footy at the MCG kicks off at lunchtime with St Kilda’s season on life support against Richmond.
The Saints arrive in disastrous form, falling 106-62 to Carlton last Sunday in a performance compounded by superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera exiting early with a hamstring injury.
They’re now two games outside the top 10 and needing a miracle to make Wildcard Weekend.
Richmond, for all their struggles, gets an opportunity here against a rival that is anything but flying after they pushed Adelaide to nine points in the rain.
They’ve proven they won’t tank for the number one pick with their recent win over the Eagles (mistake if you ask me), so expect them to run with the Saints for at least the first half.
The favourite has covered the line in each of the Saints’ last six matches, and we’re expecting that to continue with the line set at -22.5 and a big second half from Ross’ men.
North Melbourne vs Geelong Predictions
So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?
North Melbourne’s Wildcard hopes are all but over, however, the most passionate and optimistic fans will consider the two games and 9% outside the 10 a challenge rather than fait accompli.
Especially considering Geelong’s week…
The Roos are $3.50 outsiders against the Cats but will take confidence from a crucial 100-77 win over the Western Bulldogs last Thursday, a result that marked just their second win this season over an opponent of note.
Geelong continues to be a genuine bogey side for North regardless of form with 15 consecutive wins against the Shinboners.
Patrick Dangerfield could make his return after spending the past two weeks in the sidelines.
The Cats are $1.30 favourites with Ladbrokes and the head-to-head history here is about as lopsided as it gets.
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Predictions
Brisbane will press their case for a top four finish when they host the Gold Coast in the Q-Clash at the Gabba.
The Lions were utterly ruthless last week as they dismantled Hawthorn 125-58 just one week after lowering their colours to the Blues.
Kai Lohmann (24 disposals, five goals) did the damage forward of centre while Will Ashcroft (39 disposals) and Lachie Neale (35 disposals) tore the Hawks’ midfield to shreds.
They only look like getting stronger with the return of Keidean Coleman from concussion protocols.
The Suns finally snapped their 10-game losing streak with a two-point victory over the Giants, but they can’t be considered a serious chance against the two-time champs.
Dimma’s men have also lost 11-straight at the Gabba, and they’ve clearly not currently got the character to snap that hoodoo anytime soon.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Predictions
Saturday’s MCG double-header wraps up with Hawthorn and Collingwood locking horns in front of a packed house on Saturday night.
The Hawks will be looking to bounce back after they failed to show up against Brisbane, going down 125-58 on the back of 17+ turnovers and an efficiency of just 42% inside 50.
It leaves Sam Mitchell’s side just two points clear of the sixth-placed Demons and with their top four spot suddenly under pressure.
Collingwood, who have now won four of their past five after defeating the Eagles by 19 points in the west, could regain Scott Pendlebury and Jordan De Goey for this one.
The Pies have lost 14 of their last 15 away matches against the Hawks, which is a surprising and telling stat that gives us all the confidence in the Hawks bouncing back.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Predictions
Just beat the ladder leaders, no worries.
The Dees are low flying at this point in the season and can go one step further to securing a top four spot when they take on Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.
Kozzie was unreal with 27 disposals and two goals, leading his side to victory and into $23 for the premiership.
Things don’t look any better for Port, who have now lost five on the trot, when you consider Jason Horne-Francis could be out for the rest of the season with a hyperextended knee.
To their credit, Port has covered the line in each of its last six home matches against teams on a winning streak, but it’s hard to see them making any in-roads against the Dees without Butters, Rozee and now the Horney one.
GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles Predictions
Like the Saints and Roos, a minor miracle would be needed if the Giants were to play Wildcard Weekend, but it’s more than possible against the 16th-placed Eagles on Sunday.
Sitting in 12th spot and two games outside the 10, the Giants lost their third game in four outings when they went down to the Gold Coast by two points last week.
Jayden Laverde punctured his lung in the loss but is a test ahead of this week.
The Eagles weren’t disgraced in their 19-point loss to Collingwood but are still considered wild outsiders at $5.75.
It might have something to do with their inability to kick a goal on the road, having lose 23 of their last 24 away matches.
The Giants to bounce back in this one.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Predictions
Wildcard positioning is squarely on the line on Sunday afternoon when the Western Bulldogs host Carlton at Marvel Stadium.
Carlton has been the form side of the competition since making a coaching change from Michael Voss to Josh Fraser, continuing an incredible turnaround with a 106-62 demolition of St Kilda last Sunday – a third consecutive win that has the Blues within four points of a finals spot.
Jacob Weitering (19 disposals, 12 marks) dominated in his VFL return from a calf injury and would slot straight in if Fraser was to risk him this week.
The Bulldogs were disappointing against North Melbourne, and things will only get tougher with Tim English’s MCL injury ruling him out of the reminder of the home and away fixture.
Carlton seem a bit short at $1.40, but it’s hard to argue with the fact they’ve won five straight at Marvel and covered the line in their past three overall.
Essendon vs Sydney Predictions
The round closes with a $1.02 Sydney side aiming to lock in a home qualifying final against the embattled $14 Bombers at the ‘G.
The Swans were at their explosive best last week as they put 167 points on Port Adelaide behind Errol Gulden (39 disposals, one goal) and Charlie Curnow (five goals).
They will welcome star ruckman Brodie Grundy back into the side after his missed through parental leave.
Essendon, by contrast, are terrible. Thus, the whole $14 thing.
Nick Bryan could return to face off with Grundy, but it will matter little as the Swans tune up for a potentially deep finals run.