Ladbrokes has Show County Quality tips and predictions for the group race at Randwick on Saturday.
Show County Quality odds have Campione D’Italia as the favourite, but it’s an open betting contest.
It could be best to overlook Disneck’s fresh stats. He has only one placing from five attempts, but we expect a top effort on Saturday.
The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding loves racing at Randwick as a four-time winner, and six of his eight career wins have come over this distance. That’s tough to look away from, and there are plenty of positives with his form.
He took on Group 1 opposition at Flemington last start, and he didn’t handle running down the straight track in Melbourne. He’s better suited to a turn at Randwick, and he would appreciate the track drying out a touch.
There is value to be had with Show County Quality odds, and the $7.50 for Disneck is a fair price from the team at Ladbrokes. We priced him at around $5.50, and he could shorten to that quote on race day, so it’s best to get in early.
| 2. Disneck (8) J: Tim Clark 58kg x160xT: Bjorn Baker | |||
| Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five-and-a-half months. Finished off last campaign second last of 14 at Flemington in the G1 Newmarket March 7 over 1200m, 4 len behind Caballus carrying 52kg at $81. Previous preparation first-up won by 1.75 len Flemington G3 Standish January 10 over 1200m defeating Extratwo carrying 55kg at $11. Goes well this course and distance, respect. | |||
He is another fresh-up runner with loads of upside. He might be only a four-time winner throughout his career, but he has handled fields of this nature in the past, and outside the favourite, there isn’t much Group 1 form.
The biggest betting guide is how much money has come for him throughout the week. He opened at $7.50 before firming to his current price, and that’s a big move for a runner coming off a spell.
It typically means the stable is confident, and after winning a trial at Rosehill, he looks ready to make an impact at this level in the spring. Include him in picks at the each-way quote.
| 7. Matcha Latte (5) J: Ashley Morgan 57kg 3613xT: Nacim Dilmi | |||
| Resuming after a break of four-and-a-half months. Finished off last preparation third of 15 at this track Prov-Mid Champ April 11 over 1400m, 3.5 len behind Lord Of Biscay with 56kg at $4. Previously first up; third of 9 at this track in the LR Carrington January 24 over 1400m, 0.8 len behind Sandpaper with 56kg at $6.50. Back in good shape but likely to find this short of his best. | |||
Kris Lees lines up Infancy, who enjoys running at Randwick with two wins and three placings.
There hasn’t been much betting support for him, which is fair given his record on soft tracks, consisting of only two placings from six starts. However, we wouldn’t be so quick to overlook his chances.
He was only 2.9 lengths behind Splash Back at Group 1 level last start, and he has been given a freshen up for this race. If he can replicate that effort, he’s good enough to figure in the finish at double-figure odds.
| 5. Infancy (3) J: Dylan Gibbons 57.5kg 02896T: Kris Lees | |||
| Dual acceptor. Comes here off a 56-day let-up. Last start 6th of 17 in the G1 Tattersall’s Tiara at Eagle Farm on June 27 over 1400m, slow going 3 len behind Splash Back with 57kg at $81. Before that 9th of 11 in the LR Bob Charley (June) Stakes at this track on June 6 over 1100m, slow going 2.75 len behind Wanaruah with 56.5kg at $26. Prepared to risk on recent form. | |||
Punters get value odds with our Show County Quality SRM, which includes our three selected runners.
We have Disneck Top 3, Macha Latte Top 4, and Infancy Top 5, which pays a generous $9 at Ladbrokes. We don’t have the favourite in our picks, as we believe he’s under the odds following a tough 2YO campaign.
There is much better value in backing the older horses in this race, so include our SRM bet in your horse racing picks.
| 2. Disneck (8) J: Tim Clark 58kg x160xT: Bjorn Baker | |||
| Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five-and-a-half months. Finished off last campaign second last of 14 at Flemington in the G1 Newmarket March 7 over 1200m, 4 len behind Caballus carrying 52kg at $81. Previous preparation first-up won by 1.75 len Flemington G3 Standish January 10 over 1200m defeating Extratwo carrying 55kg at $11. Goes well this course and distance, respect. | |||
| 5. Infancy (3) J: Dylan Gibbons 57.5kg 02896T: Kris Lees | |||
| Dual acceptor. Comes here off a 56-day let-up. Last start 6th of 17 in the G1 Tattersall’s Tiara at Eagle Farm on June 27 over 1400m, slow going 3 len behind Splash Back with 57kg at $81. Before that 9th of 11 in the LR Bob Charley (June) Stakes at this track on June 6 over 1100m, slow going 2.75 len behind Wanaruah with 56.5kg at $26. Prepared to risk on recent form. | |||
| 7. Matcha Latte (5) J: Ashley Morgan 57kg 3613xT: Nacim Dilmi | |||
| Resuming after a break of four-and-a-half months. Finished off last preparation third of 15 at this track Prov-Mid Champ April 11 over 1400m, 3.5 len behind Lord Of Biscay with 56kg at $4. Previously first up; third of 9 at this track in the LR Carrington January 24 over 1400m, 0.8 len behind Sandpaper with 56kg at $6.50. Back in good shape but likely to find this short of his best. | |||