We have Tibbie Stakes tips and predictions for the Group 3 1400m sprint race at Newcastle on Friday.
Tibbie Stakes odds have a very even betting affair for punters to enjoy, and there is value throughout the market.
The Nathan Doyle stable is having a good run this season, and Churchill’s Choice is always a good bet at each-way odds.
She tends to get back in her races before finding the line with authority, and that makes the 1400m starting point this season ideal for her. She rattled home to finish second behind Surfin’ Bird at Eagle Farm in June, which is an excellent form guide.
She has a win and a placing over 1400m, and she also has the same stats from two runs at Newcastle. This is her favourite track, which should make her tough to beat, and she’ll give punters something to cheer down the straight.
The $7.50 odds are included in our Tibbie Stakes predictions. We thought she would be paying around $5 to win, and with a lot of early speed projected for this race, she’ll hit the line better than most.
| 2. Churchill’s Choice (10) J: Regan Bayliss 57kg 9122x T: Nathan Doyle | |||
| Mare returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign second of 15 at Eagle Farm Nat Clas Fm-Wfa June 6 over 1600m, a nose behind Surfin’ Bird carrying 57kg at $5.50. First up last campaign second of 10 at this track in the G3 Ncle Stakes March 6 over 1400m, a long neck behind Tuileries carrying 54kg at $10. Look for her to launch late. | |||
There is a lot of value in this race, and Mareth is a value runner at $6.50. She is only a one-race winner, but she has performed well behind some smart types.
The 4YO mare by Harry Angel ran second fresh-up at Randwick behind Ernaux, who has since won again, and although she finished eighth last start at Wyong, she didn’t have many favours in the race.
She also finished behind Beskar at Randwick last preparation, which saw her finish ahead of Regal Award, who runs at Group 1 level on Saturday in Melbourne. It’s good form for the Tibbie Stakes, and she can’t go under the radar at the odds.
| 10. Mareth (2) J: Tim Clark 55kg 92×28 T: Michael Freedman | |||
| Third-up today. First-up took up a position near the tail 2nd of 10 in a F&M Bm78 at Randwick on August 8 over 1200m, 1.75 len behind Ernaux carrying 56.5kg at $4.60. Second-up 8th of 10 in the LR Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong on September 4 over 1350m, 3.5 len behind Modella carrying 55kg at $5. Strips fitter and looking for this trip. | |||
Our Tibbie Stakes tips include Snitzel Dancer at a price. She started her season with a tidy run for fifth behind Modella, and although she wasn’t able to get past a few race rivals, she has more improvement in store than most here.
Her form last season was excellent, including a win over the highly touted Plaintiff at Randwick. Something close to that performance sees her win this race, so she is being underrated in betting markets.
We’re including her to finish in the Top 4, which gives SRM odds a healthy boost for Friday’s first feature race.
| 4. Snitzel Dancer (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy 57kg 119×5 T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou | |||
| Second run back. First-up after four months settled back and ran on when 5th of 10 in the LR Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong on September 4 over 1350m, 1.4 len behind Modella with 58kg at $21. Previously second-up 5th of 7 in a F&M Bm72 at Warwick Farm on February 18 over 1400m, 5 len behind Profoundly carrying 57.5kg at $6. Exciting mare who can finish over the top of these. | |||
Punters get value odds with our Tibbie Stakes SRM, which includes our three selected runners.
We have Churchill’s Choice Top 2, Mareth Top 3, and Snitzel Dancer Top 4, which pays $38 for our three-runner SRM.
The odds are huge for our 3-leg multi, and although it includes runners who aren’t favoured to win by betting markets, we think they’re being criminally underrated. Even a small wager gets a good result, so we recommend including this pick in selections.
| 2. Churchill’s Choice (10) J: Regan Bayliss 57kg 9122x T: Nathan Doyle | |||
| Mare returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign second of 15 at Eagle Farm Nat Clas Fm-Wfa June 6 over 1600m, a nose behind Surfin’ Bird carrying 57kg at $5.50. First up last campaign second of 10 at this track in the G3 Ncle Stakes March 6 over 1400m, a long neck behind Tuileries carrying 54kg at $10. Look for her to launch late. | |||
| 4. Snitzel Dancer (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy 57kg 119×5 T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou | |||
| Second run back. First-up after four months settled back and ran on when 5th of 10 in the LR Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong on September 4 over 1350m, 1.4 len behind Modella with 58kg at $21. Previously second-up 5th of 7 in a F&M Bm72 at Warwick Farm on February 18 over 1400m, 5 len behind Profoundly carrying 57.5kg at $6. Exciting mare who can finish over the top of these. | |||
| 10. Mareth (2) J: Tim Clark 55kg 92×28 T: Michael Freedman | |||
| Third-up today. First-up took up a position near the tail 2nd of 10 in a F&M Bm78 at Randwick on August 8 over 1200m, 1.75 len behind Ernaux carrying 56.5kg at $4.60. Second-up 8th of 10 in the LR Mona Lisa Stakes at Wyong on September 4 over 1350m, 3.5 len behind Modella carrying 55kg at $5. Strips fitter and looking for this trip. | |||