We have Colin Stephen Quality tips and predictions for the Group 3 2400m staying race at Rosehill on Saturday.
Colin Stephen Quality odds don’t have much between the favourites for this race, which could be a blanket finish over the staying distance.
| 1. So You Are (7) J: Rachel King 58.5kg 32421 T: Bjorn Baker | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run won by 1.75 len in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m defeating Fernao with 57.5kg at $3. The run before that gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 8 in the G3 Premier’s Cup at Randwick on August 22 over 2000m, slow going 0.6 len behind Boniface carrying 53kg at $3.60. Meets a similar line up again and sure to be thereabouts. | |||
| 2. Bella Montagna (4) J: Tim Clark 53kg 25×43 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 4th of 7 in the LR Wyong Gold Cup on September 4 over 2100m, 0.9 len behind Matusalem with 54kg at $4.40. Last start 3rd of 7 in the G3 Newcastle Cup on September 18 over 2300m, 2.75 len behind Aethelwulf with 54kg at $10. Capable of a better showing. Blinkers go on and looks hard to hold out on the limit. | |||
| 3. Sam Hawkens (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy 53kg 70×06 T: John O’shea & Tom Charlton | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming raced on the pace before fading ran second last of 11 in a Prem Prel at Randwick on August 8 over 1800m, 6 len behind Eliyass with 55kg at $31. Last start 6th of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 5 len behind So You Are carrying 55kg at $7. One of the contenders. | |||
| 4. Amplify (6) J: Zac Lloyd 53kg 43134 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run came home strongly from last on the turn; 4th of 7 in the G3 Newcastle Cup on September 18 over 2300m, 2.75 len behind Aethelwulf carrying 54kg at $21. The start before that 3rd of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 2 len behind So You Are carrying 53kg at $7.50. Fair again in the Newcastle Cup, each way. | |||
| 5. Fernao (2) J: Alysha Collett 53kg 62222 T: Annabel & Rob Archibald | |||
| Recent form sound. Most recently 2nd of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 1.75 len behind So You Are carrying 53kg at $6.50. Before that 2nd of 9 in a Bm80 at Doomben on August 22 over 2200m, long-neck behind Diamond Show with 59kg at $3.80. Made up good ground last start and gets every chance. | |||
| 6. Chief Little Rock (3) J: Andrew Adkins 53kg 07540 T: Patrick Kearney | |||
| Dual acceptor. Last start raced on the pace before fading ran second last of 11 in the G3 Archer Stakes at Flemington on September 12 over 2500m, 18 len behind Shockletz with 54kg at $101. The race before that 4th of 10 in a Bm78 at Morphettville on August 29 over 2500m, on a slow track; 1.5 len behind Retourne carrying 62kg at $4.80. Looks tested. | |||
| 7. Spacetime Legend (1) J: Reece Jones 53kg 53693 T: Joel Wilkes | |||
| Most recently 3rd in a small field in a Bm78 at this track on September 12 over 2400m, 2 len behind Appeared carrying 52kg at $81. The race before that 9th of 15 in a Bm78 at Randwick on August 22 over 2400m, slow going 6 len behind Foire De Trone carrying 54kg at $151. Happy to work around in this field. | |||
There has been solid money for Bella Montagna in an even field, which is a good sign. She looks set to run a good race after finishing third behind Aethelwulf, and she’ll be better for the run.
The main concern is her two-win record, but it’s only a matter of time before she wins her third race, and it could come on Saturday. She is never far away from the prize, including seven placings, and having Tim Clark riding is a bonus.
We expect Clark to insert some pace into the race, especially being a Waterhouse/Bott-trained runner. They love their runners to sit handy to the speed, so tactics won’t be surprising.
With 53kg on her back, she is tough to overlook, and our Colin Stephen Quality predictions are happy to back her at that price.
| 2. Bella Montagna (4) J: Tim Clark 53kg 25×43 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 4th of 7 in the LR Wyong Gold Cup on September 4 over 2100m, 0.9 len behind Matusalem with 54kg at $4.40. Last start 3rd of 7 in the G3 Newcastle Cup on September 18 over 2300m, 2.75 len behind Aethelwulf with 54kg at $10. Capable of a better showing. Blinkers go on and looks hard to hold out on the limit. | |||
Amplify is a runner who can’t be discounted. She ran fourth in the same race as Bella Montagna last start, but she can quickly turn the tables on this field.
The 5YO mare also ran third when finishing two lengths behind So You Are and Fernao two starts ago, and although she needs to find a couple of lengths to turn that result around, a good ride could get it done.
This race is all about tactics, and Zac Lloyd is reading races well. He should track the speed throughout from barrier 6, which will give him a platform to pull out at the top of the straight to launch her winning bid.
| 4. Amplify (6) J: Zac Lloyd 53kg 43134 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run came home strongly from last on the turn; 4th of 7 in the G3 Newcastle Cup on September 18 over 2300m, 2.75 len behind Aethelwulf carrying 54kg at $21. The start before that 3rd of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 2 len behind So You Are carrying 53kg at $7.50. Fair again in the Newcastle Cup, each way. | |||
Our Colin Stephen Quality tips include Sam Hawkens to run a good race. His recent form since arriving in Australia hasn’t been good, which is surprising for a well-bred son of Galileo racing against a sub-standard staying crop.
However, he might have needed time to adjust to the different conditions, and we’re prepared to give him another chance at this level. It’s not the strongest staying field you’ll ever see, so it’s up for grabs.
If he doesn’t finish in the Top 3, that would be a poor result, so we’re including him at each-way odds.
| 3. Sam Hawkens (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy 53kg 70×06 T: John O’shea & Tom Charlton | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming raced on the pace before fading ran second last of 11 in a Prem Prel at Randwick on August 8 over 1800m, 6 len behind Eliyass with 55kg at $31. Last start 6th of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 5 len behind So You Are carrying 55kg at $7. One of the contenders. | |||
Punters get value odds with our Colin Stephen Quality SRM, which includes our three selected runners.
We have Bella Montagna Top 2, Amplify Top 3, and Sam Hawkens Top 4, which pays $5.10 for our three-runner SRM.
Small fish are sweet, and we’re taking the $5.10 odds for our SRM multi. The small field makes for lower odds, but Bella Montagna and Amplify should run in the trifecta, and we just need Sam Hawkens to deliver a Top 4 result to cash the bet.
| 2. Bella Montagna (4) J: Tim Clark 53kg 25×43 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 4th of 7 in the LR Wyong Gold Cup on September 4 over 2100m, 0.9 len behind Matusalem with 54kg at $4.40. Last start 3rd of 7 in the G3 Newcastle Cup on September 18 over 2300m, 2.75 len behind Aethelwulf with 54kg at $10. Capable of a better showing. Blinkers go on and looks hard to hold out on the limit. | |||
| 3. Sam Hawkens (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy 53kg 70×06 T: John O’shea & Tom Charlton | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming raced on the pace before fading ran second last of 11 in a Prem Prel at Randwick on August 8 over 1800m, 6 len behind Eliyass with 55kg at $31. Last start 6th of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 5 len behind So You Are carrying 55kg at $7. One of the contenders. | |||
| 4. Amplify (6) J: Zac Lloyd 53kg 43134 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run came home strongly from last on the turn; 4th of 7 in the G3 Newcastle Cup on September 18 over 2300m, 2.75 len behind Aethelwulf carrying 54kg at $21. The start before that 3rd of 8 in the LR City Tatt’s Club Cup at Randwick on September 5 over 2400m, 2 len behind So You Are carrying 53kg at $7.50. Fair again in the Newcastle Cup, each way. | |||