A wild NRL finals series has left us with a 2026 Grand Final few could have predicted – even a few weeks ago – with underachieving heavyweights Sydney Roosters taking on one of the great fairytale teams of all time, Newcastle Knights.
For the first time since 2005, both teams with the week off lost on preliminary final weekend.
The upshot is Sydney Roosters became only the fifth qualifying final loser to make the grand final since this NRL finals format was adopted in 2012, while Newcastle Knights are just the third team from outside the top four to reach a decider during that period.
The Knights also join a rare group to make a grand final 12 months after landing the wooden spoon; the 2010 Roosters were the last. No club has gone from last to the premiership since 1934.
The star-studded Roosters feature in the big one for the first time since their back-to-back successes in 2018-19; the Knights had played in just one other preliminary final since their 2001 premiership triumph (in 2013) before carving out a massive chunk of finals folklore last weekend.
FORM: Top of the table at the end of Round 24 after winning eight straight, the Roosters limped into the finals with three dismal losses but recalibrated with a tough, gutsy 19-12 qualifying final defeat to Penrith.
It’s been smooth post-season sailing for the Tricolours since, overwhelming injury-hit Cronulla 46-10 – scoring 28 unanswered points in the second half – and putting away the Dolphins 36-20 in Brisbane.
The Roosters raced to a 16-0 lead over the Dolphins and piled on four unanswered tries to seal the prelim after their hosts had scored on either side of the break. Mark Nawaqanitawase (342 metres, two tries, one try assist) was incredible again and the Roosters’ pack dominated.
The injury- and suspension-hit Knights lost five of their last eight to land seventh but have found something special in September. After rolling Souths (20-10) in Sydney and the Warriors (12-10) in Auckland in rousing displays, they produced an all-time backs-to-the-wall effort in the prelim.
Down to 12 men with Phoenix Crossland sent off and trailing (an albeit Cleary-less) Penrith 14-6 at halftime, the Knights somehow pulled off a 22-14 triumph with some Dom Young and Sandon Smith brilliance complementing a herculean defensive effort.
INS AND OUTS: The unchanged Roosters have named Connor Watson in the No.14 jersey, but they will need to get clearance after he failed an HIA in the preliminary final.
Hugo Savala – the most likely to come into the frame if Watson is ruled out – and Cody Ramsey are currently the last two names on the six-man bench, while hooker Benaiah Ioelu, Tommy Talau and Egan Butcher are in the reserves.
Phoenix Crossland has been suspended for four weeks, which pitches Harrison Graham into just his 10th NRL start at hooker in his 31st match overall.
The Knights are otherwise unchanged. Fletcher Hunt is the fourth name on the bench with Thomas Cant and Kyle McCarthy rounding out the six-man interchange. NSW Under-19s hooker Diesel Hagan, yet to play in the NRL, is a smoky to come into the side with no other obvious dummy-half cover.
KEY MATCH-UPS: Fascinating duels abound but none are more important than Origin fullback adversaries and opposing captains James Tedesco – a two-time premiership winner – and Kalyn Ponga going head-to-head. Ponga has had the more influential finals series.
Out wide, Young v Tupou, Nawaqanitawase v Marzhew and Best v Toia are absolutely mouth-watering showdowns.
Unconventional five-eighth Fletcher Sharpe and back-up No.7 Sandon Smith, who spent the past three years with the Roosters, have done a marvellous job for the Knights. Daly Cherry-Evans lines up in a grand final 13 years after his last, while Sam Walker is coming off a stellar debut Origin series.
Up front, the middle trio of Naufahu Whyte, Lindsay Collins and Victory Radley would appear to give the Roosters a big advantage opposite Tyson Frizell, Cody Hopwood and Mat Croker – but the Knights trio’s grit and determination compensate for their modest stats.
Knights second-rowers Francis Manuleleua and Jermaine McEwen have been the breakout stars of the finals, but Roosters tyros Salesi Foketi and Siua Wong have also been superb.
HISTORY: The Roosters have won 16 of their last 18 against the Knights, including the teams’ last six straight encounters. They won 38-24 at Allianz in Round 7. But in a match they lost Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas to injury, the Knights were gallant in a 23-22 defeat at home in Round 21.
The Roosters boast a 5-1 record against the Knights in finals matches, most recently winning their 2013 preliminary final.
KEY STATS: The Knights are 2-0 in grand finals; the Roosters are 4-3 in deciders in the NRL era and have won their last three straight.
Dane Gagai (Souths, 2021) is the only Knights player with previous grand final experience. The Roosters have seven players who have featured on grand final day – five of whom have played in multiple deciders.
James Tedesco has 11 tries in 15 games against the Knights, including four in two games this season. Daniel Tupou boasts 13 tries in 18 games against the Knights but none in his last three. Dom Young has scored four tries in five games against the Roosters, who he played for in 2024-25.
Seven of the last 11 NRL grand finals have been decided by six points or less.
VERDICT: Plenty will need to go right for Newcastle to pull off a fourth straight finals upset and snare one of the unlikeliest premiership triumphs of all time.
But their self-belief, defensive resilience and instinctive attacking adventure have come together at the right time, culminating in a style capable of overcoming any obstacle – as so iconically illustrated last week – reminiscent of the last team from outside the top four to win the comp, the 1995 Bulldogs.
The Knights’ back-five will have to do the heavy lifting, as they did against the Warriors and Panthers, in a yardage battle the underdogs will almost certainly lose again up against a powerhouse Roosters pack. But the Newcastle forwards play with so much heart and will tackle the house down all night.
The Roosters’ backline is laced with strike, arguably outmatching even the Knights in that department – and they’ve been on fire throughout the playoffs. The big-match experience of their halves is a clear advantage, and their comparatively green Knights counterparts can’t afford to go into their shell.
But the pressure is all on the Roosters, who haven’t exactly had the most taxing build-up to the decider after their week one barnburner. Only Penrith, against Parramatta in 2022, has gone into the grand final as a shorter favourite in the past seven years.
Another hot start and a vintage display from Ponga is imperative – but if the Knights can’t complete one of the great rugby league fairytales, the ingredients are there for them to go awfully close.
Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 7.5 TOTAL TRIES / MARK NAWAQANITAWASE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $30.19
TOTAL POINTS
The total points line for the grand final has been set at 42.5 – a tally just four of the last 20 NRL deciders have exceeded.
Four of the last eight have produced 27 points or less, but the two grand finals involving Brisbane in the past three years produced 48-plus, the two biggest totals since 2001.
After 18 of their 24 regular-season matches produced 44-plus points, the reborn Knights’ amazing finals run has witnessed three totals of 36 points or less.
The Roosters featured in 13 games with a total of 44 or more in the regular season. After their low-scoring qualifying final loss, their two sudden-death wins both produced 56 points.
Tip: Under 42.5 @ $1.90
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL
Halfbacks account for 12 of the 40 Churchill Medals handed out since the award was inaugurated in 1986. Sam Walker ($4.75) is a runaway favourite, while preliminary final man of the match Sandon Smith ($15) is undeniable value.
Only three five-eighths have taken out the award, but Daly Cherry-Evans ($8) – the winner from a losing Manly side as halfback in 2013 – and Fletcher Sharpe ($15) are among the top contenders this year.
Fullbacks have made a big impression in Churchill Medal reckoning recently, with No.1s named best on ground in six of the last 17 deciders – including last year’s recipient, Reece Walsh. Kalyn Ponga ($7) and James Tedesco ($7.50) are on the second and third lines of betting.
Hookers are underrepresented, with only two No.9s winning it. Reece Robson ($26) and Harrison Graham ($51) shape as unlikely candidates to boost those numbers.
Only four forwards have won the honour in the past 15 years, with Liam Martin (2024) the most recent. Roosters duo Naufahu Whyte and Victor Radley, and Knights sensation Francis Manuleleua are the lowest-priced players from the pack in this match at $26.
No centre or winger has ever won the Churchill Medal. However, Mark Nawaqanitawase ($13) is on the fifth line, while Robert Toia ($21) and Bradman Best ($23) have been hugely influential in this finals series.
Tip: Kalyn Ponga @ $7
FIRST TRY SCORER
Last year Brisbane’s Deine Mariner broke a seven-year grand final first tryscorer drought for wingers.
Roosters wing duo Mark Nawaqanitawase ($7.25) and Daniel Tupou ($8) are the top two favourites to dot down first on Sunday night, with Knights pairing Dom Young and Greg Marzhew ($11) not far behind. All four are scoring at 0.88 tries per game in 2026 or better.
Hookers scored the first try in three of the previous six grand finals: the Roosters’ Sam Verrills in 2019, Penrith’s Mitch Kenny in 2023 and Melbourne’s Harry Grant in 2024. Centres crossed in three straight deciders from 2020-22: Melbourne’s Justin Olam, and Penrith’s Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton.
No.9s Harrison Graham ($29) and Reece Robson ($41) are in the longshot department. As far as centres go, Roosters pair Robet Toia ($11.50) and Billy Smith ($15) have scored 27 tries between them in 2026 but Knights Bradman Best ($19) and Dane Gagai ($21) only have 10 tries combined.
Cronulla’s Ben Barba (2016) was the last fullback to score the first try in a grand final. Opposing No.1s and captains James Tedesco ($10.50), who has 12 tries in 20 games in 2026, and Kalyn Ponga ($17), who has a modest five in 18 games, are among the top contenders.
Melbourne’s Ryan Hoffman (2012) was the last forward (excluding hookers) to score the first grand final try. But there’s a lot to like about Newcastle duo Francis Manuleleua ($29), who scored the first try of the prelim, and Jermaine McEwen ($34), who grabbed an elimination final double.
A half hasn’t scored the first try in a decider since Allan Langer way back in 1992, but Fletcher Sharpe ($15), Sam Walker ($19), Daly Cherry-Evans ($23) and two-try prelim hero Sandon Smith ($41) are all compelling options.
Tip: Francis Manuleleua @ $29