Three weeks in and the NFL’s lost the plot! The Browns and Steelers are running the AFC North? Bryce Young leads the league in passing yards? The Raiders are 3-0 and legitimately good? And half the league’s starting quarterbacks are on the treatment table before Week 4 even kicks off? Yeah, none of this makes sense.
But hey. That’s the NFL for ya. Here’s the rundown, game by game, and what I’m backing.
How is this even possible? The Steelers and Browns, two teams most of us wrote off as awful in the preseason, are somehow early leaders in what’s supposed to be the toughest division in football.
Cleveland’s defense has been doing the heavy lifting, generating three sacks, an interception and constant pressure in their win over Carolina. While Rodgers looked efficent for the Steelers last week with 300+yards.
It feels dirty to say it, but the Browns get the wood over the Steelers in this one.
London Game!!
Washington pulled off the upset of the season so far, somehow pipping the Seahawks 33-31 in the home opener, with Marcus Mariota throwing three touchdowns and taking home a league Player of the Week honour for his trouble.
But this really is a battle of two dreadful defenses. Washington’s allowed the highest opponent passer rating in the league through three weeks, and Indianapolis isn’t much better, having already given up ten touchdowns themselves.
Daniel Jones has a history of big days against Washington from his years in the NFC East, and between him and a red-hot Jonathan Taylor, this looks like the Colts’ game to win. There’s not much to read into that Commanders upset over Seattle and itfeels like a flash in the pan, sorry Washington fans.
Drake Maye has thrown six interceptions to just one touchdown through three games, an astonishing collapse and the Pats were just torched 35-6 by Jacksonville.
Josh Allen, meanwhile, has been terrific(ish) – five passing touchdowns, six more on the ground, over 780 yards through the air and currently fourth in the league in efficiency. But is coming off a 2 INT game.
There is a sliver of history here, with New England also sitting 1-2 at this point last year before going into Buffalo and upsetting a 4-0 Bills team. Can it happen again? NO.
Despite Allen being a little turnover-happy last week, expect him to right the ship and for Buffalo to put together a big performance that starts to put real distance between them and the rest of the AFC East.
The Ravens will be buying a lottery ticket after somehow beating the Cowboys last week with seven seconds left on the clock – and for a team that’s been nowhere near as dominant as everyone expected, this is the perfect get-right game.
The Titans, meanwhile, are an absolute shambles; Cam Ward looks like a bust so far, and it’s hard to see Tennessee doing anything of note here. This should be the blowout of the week, with Derrick Henry running rampant and Cam Ward struggling badly. Maybe even the beginning of the end of his run at quarterback?
Spare a thought for Robert Saleh too, who might be coaching for his job if he can’t get this Titans team to a reasonable level soon.
Was last week one of the great unknown-quarterback games in NFL history? Case Keenum came in as the third-stringer with barely any time to learn the playbook and torched the Eagles anyway. It’s becoming clear Ben Johnson can win with pretty much anyone under center.
Caleb Williams remains out with a hamstring injury, so it’s a question of whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent gets the nod, with the latest depth chart pointing to Bagent, somewhat bafflingly. I think that might change.
The Jets, for their part, have quietly gone about their business. Geno Smith hasn’t thrown a pick all season, even with Breece Hall now banged up. This could be closer than people expect.
There’s a lot to like about this Jaguars team right now. Liam Coen is doing a tremendous job again, and this is probably the best we’ve seen out of Trevor Lawrence, even if they still have a tendency to dip, as their one loss this year showed.
It sets up a fascinating battle between two former number one overall picks. On the other side, Cincinnati weirdly had a top-five defense by fantasy numbers through the first three weeks, but after last week that’s starting to look a lot shakier.
There’s more faith here in Jacksonville’s defense than Cincinnati’s, but more faith in the Bengals’ weapons than the Jaguars’ and Joe Burrow’s perfect head-to-head record against Lawrence makes it too hard to split a straight winner.
Could this finally be the week Trevor Lawrence gets one over the Bengals’ star quarterback? Rather than call it outright, this one leans on the overs and the skill players.
The Giants at 2-1 is genuinely surprising, though last week’s win over the Titans was a needed gimme given all their injuries. The big news this week is the trade for J.J. McCarthy, but Harbaugh has confirmed Jameis Winston keeps the job for now and despite a couple of rough outings, Winston’s probably still the better option of the two.
Tank Bigsby will do what he does grinding it up the middle, but with the Giants banged up on both sides of the ball, this looks tough against a Cardinals side that’s been overperforming all year.
Jacoby Brissett is playing solid football, and with Trey McBride and the receiving corps clicking, this feels like a big spot for Arizona.
Green Bay’s favored on the road against a shorthanded Bucs side – pardon the pun, given Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb – but if the Packers can’t win this one, they’re well and truly in top-five pick territory, and LaFleur will be on the hot seat.
Rookie Jalon Daniels gets his first career start for Tampa. He threw roughly a INT for every two TDs in college, so ball security could be an issue against a Green Bay defense that’s struggled to generate pressure anyway. Both wide receiver rooms have been abysmal, and the Packers’ ground game has been just as bad – there’s a genuine chance of an upset here.
Brian Flores’ revenge game, and what a time for it to land. He gets to unload his blitz-heavy defense on his old team, Miami.
The Dolphins are 0-3 and look thoroughly weaponless, with Malik Willis struggling to a 74.1 passer rating in Tua Tagovailoa’s old seat, and it only gets harder against this Vikings defense.
Another tip of the hat to Kevin O’Connell too, somehow plugging in whoever’s needed at the skill positions and still finding a way to win. Domination looks likely, and Miami covering would be a surprise.
Call this the big question mark game. The Rams have been up and down since the start of the season, and now all the attention is turning to Matthew Stafford, who threw four interceptions last week under very little pressure – distinctly un-Stafford-like form.
The bigger question, though, is what’s going on in Philadelphia. This team had every piece in place to run away with a shambolic NFC East and cruise into the playoffs, but they’re stumbling.
Jalen Hurts looks a little lost out there, and Sirianni is starting to resemble the version of himself from the collapse two years ago. Saquon Barkley has underperformed the last few weeks.
The Rams bounce back stronger than the Eagles do. Sirianni’s seat starts to heat up fast.
The battle of big old Texas. Houston is chasing their first win of the season at 0-3, while Dallas is looking to bounce back from a gutting, clutching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory loss in Brazil to the Ravens.
Dallas’s defense is genuinely in shambles, down several players to injury and dipping into free agency to patch the secondary, which is exactly why this could be the week Houston finally breaks through – their run defense is one small glimmer, but overall it’s shaky.
C.J. Stroud still hasn’t thrown an interception all season, and if he keeps protecting the ball and if Nico Collins plays, expect them to do damage against a weakened Dallas cornerback room.
This could turn into another shootout, much like Dallas’s Brazil game – but the hope here is for a run-heavy, clock-eating approach from the Cowboys to keep it under control.
Can you believe how far this Raiders team has turned things around? A genuine clash of unbeatens, with both Kansas City and Las Vegas sitting at 3-0 and sole possession of first place in the AFC West on the line.
Kirk Cousins and first-year coach Klint Kubiak have engineered a remarkably fast turnaround in Las Vegas, riding three straight wins, while the Chiefs have been dominant on paper, outgaining opponents by more than 400 total yards through three games, with Patrick Mahomes looking reborn after last year’s injury and Kenneth Walker breathing life into a previously nonexistent run game.
But the real story here is the Raiders’ defense – this is a revamped linebacker and pass-rush group that could make this the genuine battle these division rivals haven’t quite delivered yet.
The smart money says take the Chiefs and Kenneth Walker’s overs on the ground – but this is a week for backing the upset.
Two quarterbacks people hold very strong opinions about. There was a meme going around this week that sums up Bo Nix perfectly – something like “I know Bo Nix is bad, yet he keeps winning” – and it fits, given his twelve career game-winning drives and dramatic comeback against the Rams.
On the other side, Brock Purdy still can’t get people to put real respect on his name. Fair enough, he was Mr. Irrelevant, but he’s one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league right now. It’s a bit of a Dad’s Army approach for San Francisco, playing “next man up” through injuries yet again and still performing – and a lot of that comes down to the coaching battle between Kyle Shanahan and Sean Payton, two brilliant schemers, with the Niners having proven it a little more this season.
This looks like a game where turnover-happy Bo Nix shows up, and the Niners get the win BUT does it??
At some point the excuses run out for Justin Herbert – this is shaping up as one of the great quarterback collapses, just 59.1% completion with three touchdowns to four interceptions, and it might take a change of scenery for him to recapture his early-career form.
Seattle, meanwhile, gets Sam Darnold back healthy after a glute injury, and this Seahawks team is simply the better side right now.
Keep it simple: Chargers bad, Seahawks great.
Start with the line: Bryce Young is the current passing yardage leader in the NFL. That’s not a typo, that’s completely true. Now he takes on one of the league’s weaker pass defenses in Detroit.
Carolina’s injury situation is dire, especially at cornerback, which plays right into the hands of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jared Goff, who hasn’t thrown an interception all season.
It’s hard to see the Panthers creating enough pressure up front or covering well enough in the back end to stop Detroit’s passing attack ripping through them, whether it’s St. Brown, Jameson Williams or Sam LaPorta doing the damage.
Expect a tough day for Carolina’s defense but a fun one for their offense – Chuba Hubbard has been doing big things on the ground, and Young himself is playing some of the best football of his career. His defense, though, is probably going to let him down.
Can lightning strike twice? Penix was crazy good after an early INT, snapping Green Bay’s 13-game home-opener winning streak with a 256-yard performance, while Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns in that win.
Tyler Shough has been just as hot for New Orleans, throwing a career-high four touchdowns against the Raiders last week and sitting on over 900 yards and eight scores on the season – though he’s been sacked at a high rate, and Atlanta’s pass rush ranks first in the league by grade, setting up a real pressure battle in the trenches.
The read here is a Falcons team that leans on the ground game all day to control this one but enentually lose.