Flemington hosts one of the premier middle-distance showdowns of the Melbourne Spring Carnival this Saturday, and the Ladbrokes form experts have you covered with our exclusive 2026 Turnbull Stakes tips, predictions and best bets, analysing the leading contenders, top winning chances and value runners in this year’s pivotal Group 1 contest. With a host of Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup hopefuls lining up in the traditional 2000m feature, we break down the key chances and highlight where the best betting value can be found in one of the season’s most important spring races.
The Group 1 $750,000 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) once again shapes as one of the defining races of the spring, with a quality field of proven elite level performers, emerging stars and genuine Cups contenders set to clash at Flemington.
Defending champion Sir Delius heads the Turnbull Stakes betting as he looks to become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Winx, with the Waterhouse & Bott-trained stayer set to relish the rise to 2000m following a solid first-up effort in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
His biggest danger in betting is Aeliana, with Chris Waller chasing a seventh Turnbull Stakes victory as the elite mare returns to Melbourne after an encouraging second-up run behind Autumn Glow in Sydney. The proven Group 1 winner is expected to appreciate the extra distance and gets every chance from a favourable draw.
The market’s other major player is Cosmic Crusader, who has not put a foot wrong this campaign and brings outstanding form through the Underwood Stakes. The Perth-bred galloper tackles Flemington and 2000m for the first time but has earned his place among the leading contenders.
Among the value runners, reigning Cups champion Half Yours, Naturalism Stakes winner Zahrann, in-form mare She’s A Hustler, and consistent grey Saint George all appeal. Saint George, in particular, shapes as a standout exotic’s hope after an unlucky second in the Naturalism when giving away significant weight to key rivals.
With proven Group 1 class, spring staying stars and plenty of betting depth throughout the field, the Turnbull looks set to be one of the standout betting races of the season.
Read on for our expert 2026 Turnbull Stakes predictions and Same Race Multi selections.
Turnbull Stakes 2026 Tips
Happy to stick with Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes favourite putting reigning champion SIR DELIUS (9) on top.
The classy Waterhouse & Bott-trained entire can successfully defend his crown at Flemington second-up as he tracks towards the Ladbrokes Cox Plate, for which he’s also the top elect.
He looks set for a big performance after an encouraging return in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes.
The six-year-old Frankel entire settled off a slow tempo and worked home strongly to finish fourth behind star mare Sheza Alibi, a run that should have him perfectly primed for Saturday’s rise to 2000m.
The extra distance is a major positive as his record at the trip is outstanding.
A proven performer at weight-for-age level, I expect he’ll take significant improvement from his first-up outing and now gets conditions to suit as he tackles his preferred journey.
A win would see him become the first horse since the legendary Winx to claim back-to-back editions of the Turnbull, and he profiles as the runner most capable of doing exactly that.
Drawn to get every chance and with Craig Williams maintaining the partnership, he ticks all the key boxes heading into one of Flemington’s premier spring features.
If he produces anything close to his best form, he should prove too strong.
| 2. Sir Delius (9) J: Craig Williams 59kg 331×4 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 4th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 4 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 59kg at $5. Previously second-up eased back early on 3rd in a small field in the G1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill on March 21 over 2000m, slow going 1.1 len behind Aeliana with 59kg at $3. Did more than enough fresh, he’ll improve again but his best would win. | |||
AELIANA (2) looks the clear each way danger to the favourite and appeals as a genuine winning chance third-up for mine.
Chris Waller’s classy five-year-old signalled she was back near her best when charging home for second behind stablemate Autumn Glow in the Group 2 7 Stakes at Randwick, a run that suggested she is crying out for the rise to 2000m.
The daughter of Castelvecchio boasts elite staying credentials, having captured both the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes and Tancred Stakes during the autumn, and she gets conditions to suit stepping up in distance.
Wet ground is another plus, with Aeliana having previously defeated Sir Delius over 2000m on a Soft track in the Ranvet when she was third-up and he was second-up, remarkably the same scenario they meet under here.
She strips fitter for two runs back this campaign, has a proven third-up record, draws ideally in barrier two and gets the services of Damian Lane.
With Waller chasing a seventh Turnbull Stakes victory and Aeliana set to peak at the right time, she looks the horse most capable of upsetting the favourite and is a must for all Turnbull Stakes betting exotics.
| 5. Aeliana (2) J: Damian Lane 57kg 11×02 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up ran last of 11 in the G1 Winx Stakes at Randwick on August 22 over 1400m, slow going 10 len behind Autumn Glow with 57kg at $14. Last start 2nd in a small field in the G2 7 Stakes at Randwick on September 19 over 1600m, 1.3 len behind Autumn Glow with 57kg at $21. Much better second up and gets every chance third up to 2000m. | |||
While I’m on the favourite to win (see above) for value in the exotics I’m happy to throw a little something on SAINT GEORGE (13) who looks somewhat forgotten by the punters ($13 at time of publish).
The Ciaron Maher-trained grey has been in excellent form this spring and arguably produced one of the tougher performances of the season when runner-up in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield.
After returning with a dominant 2000m victory under the hefty impost of 61.5kg, the son of Roaring Lion backed it up with another brave effort when finishing second to stablemate Zahrann despite carrying 58.5kg and jumping from the extreme outside gate.
In contrast, the winner enjoyed a much kinder run from barrier six with 3.5kg less on his back, making Saint George’s performance better than it first appears.
The return to Flemington looks ideal and his proven record at both the track and distance adds further confidence.
With race fitness on his side and a likely more economical run in transit, Saint George profiles as the type of horse capable of outperforming his market quote against some of the better-fancied runners.
If he reproduces his Naturalism effort under more favourable circumstances, a top-three finish is well within reach.
| 13. Saint George (12) J: Michael Dee 55kg x4112 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start 2nd of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m, 1.0 len behind Zahrann with 58.5kg at $3.60. The start before that won by 1.3 len in a Qlty at Caulfield on August 29 over 2000m in soft going defeating Litzdeel with 61.5kg at $5.50. Keeps racing well but this is a tough ask. | |||
2026 Turnbull Stakes Same Race Multi Selections
- Top 3 – No. 2 Sir Delius
- Top 3 – No. 5 Aeliana
- Top 4 – No. 13 Saint George
I’m backing SIR DELIUS (9) to finish Top 2 after an excellent first-up Makybe Diva Stakes run, with the reigning Turnbull champion set to improve sharply second-up over his preferred 2000m trip as he bids to become the first back-to-back winner since Winx.
AELIANA (2) to finish Top 3 looks a strong SRM play after her eye-catching second-up run in the 7 Stakes, with the Waller-trained mare set to peak third-up over her ideal 2000m trip where her proven Group 1 staying credentials and favourable draw make her a standout place chance.
Finally, SAINT GEORGE (12) to finish Top 4 after a luckless second in the Naturalism carrying a big weight from a wide gate, with the in-form Maher-trained grey boasting strong 2000m credentials and looking well placed to outperform his double-figure odds at Flemington.
| 2. Sir Delius (9) J: Craig Williams 59kg 331×4 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 4th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 4 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 59kg at $5. Previously second-up eased back early on 3rd in a small field in the G1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill on March 21 over 2000m, slow going 1.1 len behind Aeliana with 59kg at $3. Did more than enough fresh, he’ll improve again but his best would win. | |||
| 5. Aeliana (2) J: Damian Lane 57kg 11×02 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up ran last of 11 in the G1 Winx Stakes at Randwick on August 22 over 1400m, slow going 10 len behind Autumn Glow with 57kg at $14. Last start 2nd in a small field in the G2 7 Stakes at Randwick on September 19 over 1600m, 1.3 len behind Autumn Glow with 57kg at $21. Much better second up and gets every chance third up to 2000m. | |||
| 13. Saint George (12) J: Michael Dee 55kg x4112 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start 2nd of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m, 1.0 len behind Zahrann with 58.5kg at $3.60. The start before that won by 1.3 len in a Qlty at Caulfield on August 29 over 2000m in soft going defeating Litzdeel with 61.5kg at $5.50. Keeps racing well but this is a tough ask. | |||
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Flemington Race 4 – No. 2 Saintly Dancer (Top 2)
| 2. Saintly Dancer (9) J: Ethan Brown 56kg 2162 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 10 in the G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield on September 19 over 1400m, 0.8 len behind Icelady carrying 56kg at $8. The start before that 6th of 11 in the LR Atlantic Jewel Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 1300m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Pretty Baby with 56kg at $6. Keeps racing well and can settle on speed again. | |||
Flemington Race 5 – No. 14 Tennessee Bound (Win)
| 14. Tennessee Bound (11) J: Jabez Johnstone 55kg 11122 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Form hard to fault. At the latest run set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 7 in the G3 Chautauqua (Chandler Macleod) Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 9 over 1300m, on a slow track; 1.3 len behind Warnie carrying 54kg at $4.20. The race before that raced on speed throughout when 2nd of 7 in a Bm88 at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 1300m, on a wet track; 2.25 len behind Gold Coast Belle with 56.5kg at $2.90. Well placed. Keeps racing well and can take catching again. | |||
Flemington Race 6 – No. 10 Natural Fling (Win)
| 10. Natural Fling (10) J: Damian Lane 56.5kg 12×13 T: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy | |||
| Third-up today. First-up favourite; won by 4 len in the G3 Quezette Stakes at Caulfield on August 15 over 1100m on a soft track defeating Scintillation with 56kg at $2.40. Second run from a spell sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 13 in the G1 Moir Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 1000m, slow going 1.1 len behind My Gladiola with 50kg at $3. Very hard to catch back to own age group. | |||
Flemington Race 7 – No. 11 Litzdeel (Top 3)
| 11. Litzdeel (10) J: Daniel Stackhouse 54kg 5×425 T: Danny O’brien | |||
| At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 11 in the G3 Archer Stakes at this track on September 12 over 2500m, 4 len behind Shockletz with 58.5kg at $3.50. The run before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 15 in a Qlty at Caulfield on August 29 over 2000m, slow going 1.3 len behind Saint George carrying 55.5kg at $8.50. Drops in weight and can give a sight. | |||
Flemington Race 8 – No. 2 Sir Delius (Top 2)
| 2. Sir Delius (9) J: Craig Williams 59kg 331×4 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 4th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 4 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 59kg at $5. Previously second-up eased back early on 3rd in a small field in the G1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill on March 21 over 2000m, slow going 1.1 len behind Aeliana with 59kg at $3. Did more than enough fresh, he’ll improve again but his best would win. | |||
Flemington Race 9 – No. 4 Hedged (Top 3)
| 4. Hedged (3) J: Blake Shinn 59kg 26×52 T: Gavin Bedggood | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 5th of 8 in the G3 Carlyon Stakes at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 1000m, in the wet; 3 len behind Cavalry Girl carrying 59kg at $4.40. Second-up rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 14 in the G2 Bobbie Lewis Quality at this track on September 12 over 1200m, 0.5 len behind Losesomewinmore carrying 57.5kg at $13. Well placed. Tough win last time, hard to catch. | |||
Latest Turnbull Stakes 2026 Odds
Turnbull Stakes 2026 Odds
| 1. Half Yours (13) J: Jamie Melham 59kg 444×6 T: Tony & Calvin Mcevoy | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months got back early 6th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 4.5 len behind Sheza Alibi with 59kg at $51. Previously second-up 4th of 10 in the G2 AD Hollindale Stakes at Gold Coast on May 9 over 1800m, 4.5 len behind Pride Of Jenni with 59kg at $3.80. Lovely return but draw means he’ll be ridden to hit the line. | |||
| 2. Sir Delius (9) J: Craig Williams 59kg 331×4 T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 4th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 4 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 59kg at $5. Previously second-up eased back early on 3rd in a small field in the G1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill on March 21 over 2000m, slow going 1.1 len behind Aeliana with 59kg at $3. Did more than enough fresh, he’ll improve again but his best would win. | |||
| 3. Light Infantry Man (3) J: Harry Coffey 58kg 15×48 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 4th of 8 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 15 over 1600m, on a slow track; 2 len behind Darkbonee carrying 60kg at $3.40. Second run from a spell 8th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 5.5 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 59kg at $41. Very wet ground a query but his form over this trip is very good. | |||
| 4. Cosmic Crusader (4) J: William Pike 58kg x1132 T: Andrea Leek | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start raced on speed throughout when 2nd of 8 in the G1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 1800m, 1.75 len behind Birdman carrying 59kg at $2.25. The race before that 3rd of 12 in the G1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 1400m, slow going 3.5 len behind Beiwacht with 59kg at $3.30. Can improve again. Had his chance latest but draws well and will like the ground. | |||
| 5. Aeliana (2) J: Damian Lane 57kg 11×02 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up ran last of 11 in the G1 Winx Stakes at Randwick on August 22 over 1400m, slow going 10 len behind Autumn Glow with 57kg at $14. Last start 2nd in a small field in the G2 7 Stakes at Randwick on September 19 over 1600m, 1.3 len behind Autumn Glow with 57kg at $21. Much better second up and gets every chance third up to 2000m. | |||
| 6. Asterix (11) J: Ben Melham 56.5kg 61×53 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming settled back and ran on when 5th of 9 in a So You Think at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 1500m, slow going 3 len behind Evaporate carrying 58.5kg at $51. Second-up made some head-way from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m, 1.3 len behind Zahrann with 58.5kg at $26. Going well but lacks the class. | |||
| 7. Zahrann (1) J: Ethan Brown 56.5kg 53×41 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 4th of 16 in a LR Heatherlie Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 1700m, slow going 1.75 len behind Kingswood with 57kg at $11. Last start favourite; came from midfield and won by 1.0 len in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m defeating Saint George with 55kg at $3.20. Tougher here, this looks a bit of a trial for the Cups. | |||
| 8. Ohope Wins (5) J: Blake Shinn 56kg 41×09 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming ran last of 11 in the G2 PB Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield on August 15 over 1400m, slow going 10 len behind Cosmic Crusader with 56.5kg at $41. Last start ran second last of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 5.5 len behind Sheza Alibi with 56.5kg at $101. Fitter again but can’t have. | |||
| 9. Middle Earth (6) J: Mark Zahra 56kg 91×87 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 8th of 16 in a LR Heatherlie Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 1700m, slow going 5 len behind Kingswood carrying 61.5kg at $41. Second run from a spell ran second last of 8 in the G1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 1800m, 6 len behind Birdman carrying 59kg at $61. Wait until he gets over further. | |||
| 11. Buckaroo (8) J: Jye Mcneil 55kg 25×55 T: Chris Waller | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 5th of 12 in the G1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 1400m, slow going 4 len behind Beiwacht carrying 59kg at $101. Second-up got back early 5th of 8 in the G1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 1800m, 4.5 len behind Birdman carrying 59kg at $9. Ready to peak now and gets in very well under the conditions. | |||
| 12. She’s A Hustler (7) J: Jordan Childs 55kg 355×5 T: Grahame Begg | |||
| Second run back. First-up after three months got back early 5th of 10 in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1600m, 4.5 len behind Sheza Alibi with 57kg at $91. Previously second-up 3rd of 10 in the G2 AD Hollindale Stakes at Gold Coast on May 9 over 1800m, 3 len behind Pride Of Jenni with 57kg at $4.60. Lovely return, will peak for Caulfield Cup but should go well. | |||
| 13. Saint George (12) J: Michael Dee 55kg x4112 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start 2nd of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m, 1.0 len behind Zahrann with 58.5kg at $3.60. The start before that won by 1.3 len in a Qlty at Caulfield on August 29 over 2000m in soft going defeating Litzdeel with 61.5kg at $5.50. Keeps racing well but this is a tough ask. | |||
| 15. Kings Valley (10) J: Lachlan Neindorf 55kg 1×087 T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Last start 7th of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 2000m, 2 len behind Zahrann carrying 54kg at $81. Before that ran second last of 9 in a So You Think at Sandown-Hillside on September 5 over 1500m, slow going 9 len behind Evaporate carrying 58kg at $81. Going quite well but this is too tough. | |||
| 10. Soul Of Spain (15) Scratched: | |||
| 14. Deakin (12) Scratched: | |||
2026 Turnbull Stakes Big Bets Tracker
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Turnbull Stakes FAQs
The Turnbull Stakes is a Group 1 weight-for-age thoroughbred horse race run during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival. Held annually at Flemington Racecourse, the race is widely regarded as one of the most important lead-up events to both the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.
The Turnbull Stakes is traditionally run on the first Saturday in October at Flemington as part of the Melbourne Cup Carnival lead-up program. The 2026 Turnbull Stakes date is Saturday October 3 with the race set to run as Flemington Race 8 at 4:25pm (AEST) on the 10-race Turnbull Stakes Day card.
The Turnbull Stakes is run over 2000 metres, making it a key middle-distance test for horses targeting major spring features including the Cox Plate (2040m), Caulfield Cup (2400m), and Melbourne Cup (3200m).
The Turnbull Stakes is held at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Victoria. The race is contested down Flemington’s famous straight and attracts many of Australia’s best weight-for-age gallopers.
The Turnbull Stakes is a Group 1 race, the highest level of thoroughbred racing in Australia.
The 2026 Turnbull Stakes offers $750,000 in prize money, with a significant portion awarded to the winning connections.
The Turnbull Stakes is conducted under weight-for-age conditions, meaning horses carry weights based on their age and sex rather than handicap ratings.
The Turnbull Stakes is one of Australia’s premier spring lead-up races and has produced numerous Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne Cup winners. A strong performance in the Turnbull is often a key indicator for the major races later in the carnival.
Nine horses have won multiple editions of the race with Ajax (1938 & 1940) the only to do so on non-successive years. Champion mare Winx famously won consecutive editions of the Turnbull Stakes in 2017 and 2018, becoming one of the race’s most celebrated winners and latest back-to-back champion. In 2026, No. 2 Sir Delius defends his Turnbull Stakes title looking to be the next.
Lee Freedman is the most successful Turnbull Stakes trainer having prepared an impressive eight winners with Rising Fast (1954), Galilee (1968), Super Impose (1989), Let’s Elope (1991), Naturalism (1992), Doriemus (1996), Northerly (2001), and Elvstroem (2004).
While the Turnbull Stakes does not automatically guarantee a Cox Plate berth, strong performers are often among the leading contenders in Cox Plate betting and frequently progress to the Australasian WFA championship later in October. Via Sistina (2024) was the last galloper to complete the Turnbull Stakes – Cox Plate double.
The Turnbull Stakes field is typically limited to 16 starters plus 4 emergencies, although final field sizes can vary depending on nominations and acceptances.
At the time of publication, defending champion No. 2 Sir Delius heads the 2026 Turnbull Stakes betting as he chases consecutive victories in the Flemington feature.
You can find the latest Turnbull Stakes tips, predictions, best bets, odds, form analysis and betting markets right here on the Ladbrokes Blog in the lead-up to race day.