Our Leeds vs Man United prediction is in for Sunday night (Monday 19 October), when Leeds host Man United at Elland Road from midnight AEDT. Here’s how we see it and the odds worth backing.
Leeds vs Man United match prediction
Man United are under pressure after a 2-0 Champions League loss to Atlético Madrid on Wednesday.
Not much is going right for them, and although Leeds should be tough to beat at home, we’re picking the draw at $3.50. It’s a good price in what should be a tight contest, where chances to score could be sparse.
We don’t have much confidence in either team, so the draw is a logical option.
- Correct score 1-1 @ $7.75: The last meeting at Elland Road, in the Premier League in January, finished 1-1, and neither league meeting last season was decided by more than a goal.
- Both teams to score @ $1.50: Both teams scored in four of Leeds’ last five games, and Man United have conceded in all five of theirs.
- Under 3.5 goals @ $1.50: Man United’s last five games produced 12 goals in total, and only one of them went over 2.5. The two league meetings last season produced five goals between them.
Odds correct at 1:23pm AEDT, Wednesday 14 October 2026. See the latest odds for every market below.
Head to head and what it means for our prediction
Of the last two Premier League meetings, Leeds won one and one finished level. Leeds scored three goals in those games and Man United scored two.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr 2026 | Man United | 1-2 | Leeds |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Leeds | 1-1 | Man United |
The two Premier League meetings last season ended in a 1-1 draw at Elland Road and a 2-1 Leeds win at Old Trafford. Neither game was won by more than a goal, which backs our draw tip.
Form and stats behind our tips
Leeds sit seventh on nine points. Man United are 13th on six points and are winless in their last five games in all competitions.
Leeds: last 5 games
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Result | Score | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2026 | Brighton | A | D | 1-1 | EPL |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Chelsea | A | L | 3-6 | League Cup |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Newcastle | H | W | 4-1 | EPL |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Crystal Palace | H | D | 0-0 | EPL |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Arsenal | A | L | 1-2 | EPL |
Man United: last 5 games
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Result | Score | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2026 | Man City | H | L | 0-1 | EPL |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Brighton | H | L | 2-3 | League Cup |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Fulham | A | D | 1-1 | EPL |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Spurs | H | D | 1-1 | EPL |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Atlético Madrid | A | L | 0-2 | UCL |
- Both teams scored in 4 of Leeds’ last 5 games and 3 of Man United’s.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Leeds’ last 5 and 1 of Man United’s.
- Leeds kept 1 clean sheet in their last 5. Man United kept 0.
- Leeds sit 7th on 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). Man United sit 13th on 6 points (1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses).
Leeds score often but also concede, with 10 goals against in their last five. Man United have scored four in the same run. A low-scoring draw where both sides score fits both sets of numbers.
Leeds: Joe Rodon (hamstring) and Mateo Joseph (knee) are out, and Daniel James is a doubt with a back problem. Harry Wilson is back from a quad injury, which gives Leeds another goal threat for the both teams to score bet.
Man United: Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu and Manuel Ugarte are out. Luke Shaw, Kobbie Mainoo and Noussair Mazraoui are all doubts. Bruno Fernandes is playing through a knock. Missing Sesko takes away a striker, which supports the under 3.5 goals bet.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin anytime goalscorer @ $2.63: Calvert-Lewin is Leeds’ top league scorer this season with three goals and leads their line at Elland Road.
- Bryan Mbeumo anytime goalscorer @ $3.40: Mbeumo has three league goals, level with Fernandes for the most at Man United, and he is fit while Sesko is out.
Here’s a quick look at the current odds and popular betting markets for the Leeds vs Man United matchup.
*odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford | 3.60 |
| Matheus Cunha | 3.40 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 2.63 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 3.70 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 3.40 |
| Noah Okafor | 3.70 |
| Joshua Zirkzee | 3.20 |
| Harry Wilson | 3.70 |
| Amad Diallo | 5.25 |
| Anton Stach | 5.75 |
| Brenden Aaronson | 4.80 |
| Youri Tielemans | 8.00 |
| Andrey Santos | 8.00 |
| Ao Tanaka | 7.50 |
| James Justin | 9.50 |
Premier League odds correct as of 14/10/2026 and subject to change. Event scheduled to start at 18/10/2026 11:00pm AEST.
Premier League odds correct as of 14/10/2026 and subject to change. Event scheduled to start at 18/10/2026 11:00pm AEST.