After a rousing start to the 2026 Rugby League World Cup – headlined by Australia-New Zealand and Tonga-England blockbusters that lived up to the hype – the second round of pool matches are looking like lopsided affairs in comparison.
The RLWC has delivered some mighty upsets over the years…are any of this weekend’s massive underdogs a chance of a boilover?
Tonga made arguably the biggest statement of the opening round and are searching for a points differential boost against plucky Lebanon.
FORM: Tonga wore England down in a physical, professional 30-12 win in Perth. Isaiya Katoa pulled the strings superbly on the back of a rumbling pack.
Lebanon performed creditably in a 42-18 loss to Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby, fighting back to 18-12 and 30-18 deficits.
INS AND OUTS: Tui Lolohea starts at five-eighth for Tonga, while Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti get their first starts of the tournament for Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia. A rejigged pack sees Stefano Utoikamanu and Kulikefu Finefeuaki coming into the run-on side and Taniela Paseka joining the bench.
Lebanon’s only change sees Moustafa Dirani come in at hooker and Yehya Ayache move to the bench.
KEY MATCH-UP: Tonga veteran Jason Taumalolo was a monster against England and shifts to the No.13 this week. Opposing lock Alex Twal is the inspiration in the Lebanon pack.
HISTORY: An oft-forgotten chapter in Tonga’s watershed 2017 World Cup campaign, they got out of jail with a 24-22 quarterfinal win over Lebanon in Christchurch – the nations’ only meeting to date.
KEY STAT: Lebanon has only lost two Tests by margins of more than 44 points – against New Zealand in 2000 (64-0) and Russia in 2008 (80-0).
VERDICT: Tonga passed its first RLWC test with flying colours to stamp themselves as a genuine title contender. Making only minor tweaks to the line-up, Kristian Woolf’s side will recognise the importance of not taking their foot off the pedal with for-and-against to potentially play a big role.
Lebanon punches above its weight, but the Cedars pack was outgunned by their Kumuls counterparts – and that disparity is almost certain to be even more stark in Sydney this week.
Tip: Back Tonga to Cover the Line (-47.5) @ $1.90
SGM: TONGA BY 41-50 / TUIMOALA LOLOHEA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $61.13
The forgotten team of Pool B/C, Papua New Guinea will be looking to turn the tournament on its head when it hosts heavyweight Samoa and PNG Chiefs marquee signings Jarome Luai and Brian To’o.
FORM: Papua New Guinea accounted for Lebanon 42-18, though there were some scrappy periods and defensive lapses that the Kumuls will need to tidy up.
Samoa ran riot in Round 1, swamping a hopelessly outclassed and overpowered France 78-4.
INS AND OUTS: Papua New Guinea has named Bailey Biondi-Odo at halfback again, but last week he started on the bench and came on for the last 17 minutes. Epel Kapinias and Jack de Belin are also named to start, with Josh Feledy, Rodrick Tai and Khaiya Waiembi joining the interchange.
Deine Mariner’s hamstring injury sees Su’a Faalogo start on the left wing after he come off the bench early against France and scored four tries. Ronald Volkman takes Faalogo’s place on the interchange.
KEY MATCH-UP: Kumuls five-eighth Gairo Voro was a sparkplug against Lebanon and will be a go-to player this week. Chanel Harris-Tavita stood out in the Samoa No.6 jumper in Round 1.
HISTORY: Samoa is 3-0 against Papua New Guinea, winning 26-18 in Apia in 2009, 38-4 in the 2013 World Cup at Hull, and 24-6 in the 2019 Oceania Cup in Sydney.
KEY STAT: The Kumuls have won 15 of their last 16 Tests in Port Moresby and have not conceded more than 43 points there since 2001.
VERDICT: Coming off what was effectively a training run against France, this assignment represents a potential banana skin for Samoa – an unfamiliar and challenging venue in sweltering conditions against a team that always brings physicality.
Man for man, the Kumuls look comprehensively outmatched. But in their own backyard it may not be the complete whitewash many are predicting – though improving their error and missed tackle rates are imperative.
Tip: Back Under 58.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: PAPUA NEW GUINEA +30.5 / SUA FAALOGO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / ZAC LAYBUTT ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.51
After a promising start that was nevertheless damaging to its semifinal chances, England needs to rack up a cricket score at the expense of minnow France.
FORM: England fared better in its loss to Tonga than the 30-12 scoreline suggests, creating plenty of opportunities, holding their own in the physical battle and forcing their opponents to resort to kicks and penalty goals to get the scoreboard ticking over.
France had a tough evening out in Sydney last Friday, conceding 14 tries in a 78-4 walloping from Samoa.
INS AND OUTS: The England squad is unchanged. France has promoted Thomas Lacans to five-eighth, while Romeo Tropis comes in at centre with Guillermo Aispur-Bichet going to the wing. Captain Ben Garcia shifts from hooker to lock as Amir Bourouh slots in at dummy-half.
KEY MATCH-UP: Versatile Rooster Hugo Savala made an eye-catching Test debut at centre with two try assists. He’ll line up opposite France’s only current NRL player, Latrell Siegwalt.
HISTORY: France’s last win over England was in 1981, losing all 23 matches since – most recently a 40-8 result in 2024.
KEY STAT: Only two of England’s last 11 wins against France came by margins of 44-plus points.
VERDICT: Following a horror commute to Perth, England will relish the chance to spend a whole week on terra firma and take on low-level opposition after a brutal encounter against Tonga – from which they can take plenty of positives.
France is clearly the chief easybeat of this tournament and are set to be on the wrong end of another landslide.
Tip: Back England to Cover the Line (-43.5) @ $1.90
SGM: ENGLAND BY 51+ / DOMINIC YOUNG TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / HERBIE FARNWORTH TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JEZ LITTEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.57
The Kiwis were impressive in the tournament opener but couldn’t quite get the job done. They’ll be looking to tune up for the bigger matches to come in a Christchurch-hosted clash with Cook Islands on Sunday.
FORM: New Zealand had the better of a classic tournament opener against Australia but went down 24-22 after coming undone in key moments. Nevertheless, the Kiwis’ forward pack dominance fired a warning shot for the rest of the competition.
Cook Islands were overrun in the first half against Fiji in Newcastle, but after trailing 28-0 at the break they can take heart from a two-tries-apiece second stanza in a 40-12 loss.
INS AND OUTS: Keano Kini will start at fullback for the Kiwis with Kalyn Ponga out, while Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad comes in at centre to spell Dane Gagai, Erin Clark, Xavier Willison and Scott Sorensen move into the starting pack, and Leo Thompson, Tanner Stowers-Smith and Jacob Laban join the bench.
Valentine Holmes makes his Cook Islands debut at fullback, Brad Takairangi slots in at halfback with Esan Marster dropping to the bench, and Rua Nagtikaura comes in at hooker with Mason Teague shifting to lock.
KEY MATCH-UP: The Kiwis’ title hopes could hinge on Kini’s ability to provide the same sort of influence Ponga would have at fullback. Meanwhile, Holmes is arguably the highest-profile player to turn out for the Kukis since Kevin Iro.
HISTORY: The nations have only met once previously, with New Zealand powering to an 84-10 win at the 2000 World Cup.
KEY STAT: The Kiwis have notched scores of 68-plus at the past two World Cups. Since their 2000 loss to the Kiwis, the Kukis have conceded more than 56 points just once – in a 92-10 defeat to Tonga at the 2022 World Cup.
VERDICT: These mismatches can be tricky and it would not surprise to see the Kiwis coast a bit after establishing some early dominance. But with several forwards looking to push their claims for the games ahead, it shapes as a tall order for a Cook Islands pack that was largely steamrolled by Fiji.
With Jahrome Hughes blowing out the cobwebs last week and Kini eager to stamp his claims to the fullback spot vacated by Ponga, there should be plenty of points on offer in warm conditions under the roof in Christchurch.
Tip: Back New Zealand to Score over 57.5 Points @ $1.80
SGM: OVER 62.5 TOTAL POINTS / RONALDO MULITALO TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ERIN CLARK ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $22.41
The Kangaroos have rung the changes for the second match of the tournament against a Fiji team that can’t be taken lightly.
FORM: Australia was under the pump for the majority of its opening clash with New Zealand, yet weathered the storm with some opportunist tries in the first half and came home with a wet sail to grab a memorable 24-22 win with two tries in the last 12 minutes.
Fiji stormed out of the blocks in Newcastle to lead Cook Islands 28-0 at halftime, before easing off to a 40-12 result. Makeshift halves pairing Brandon Wakeham and Kurt Dongohoe were particularly impressive.
INS AND OUTS: James Tedesco and Bradman Best come into the Kangaroos’ backline, Tom Dearden and Sam Walker team up in the halves, and Keaon Koloamatangi, Blayke Brailey, Lindsay Smith, David Fifita, Reuben Cotter and Cam Murray make up an all-new starting pack.
The Fiji squad is unchanged.
KEY MATCH-UP: Sam Walker makes his Test debut on the back of a maiden Origin series and his role as the Roosters’ premiership-winning halfback. Brandon Wakeham looked good in Fiji’s No.7 jersey last week, producing three try assists.
HISTORY: Australia has won all seven of its Tests against Fiji, most recently winning their 2022 World Cup pool showdown 42-8. The Kangaroos won their 2017 semifinal at Suncorp Stadium 54-6.
KEY STAT: The average margin between Australia and Fiji since the first clash in 1995 is 50 points.
VERDICT: There could be a bit of rust in the Australia performance with only three starters from last Thursday retained, while the natural inclination of players vying for first-choice spots may take away from team cohesion.
But the firepower and flair throughout the Kangaroos line-up is a daunting prospect for Fiji.
The Bati will be fired up for this one and won’t die wondering, but with only a handful of NRL regulars in their side they may find it difficult to compete for 80 minutes.
Tip: Back Australia to Score Over 52.5 Points @ $1.94
SGM: AUSTRALIA -44.5 / BRADMAN BEST TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / CAMERON MURRAY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DAVID FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.94