Here’s our PNG vs Samoa prediction for Saturday 24 October at Santos National Football Stadium in Port Moresby, where kick-off is 3:25pm AEDT. We’ve picked the best bets and odds at Ladbrokes.
The forgotten team of Pool B/C, Papua New Guinea will be looking to turn the tournament on its head when it hosts heavyweight Samoa and PNG Chiefs marquee signings Jarome Luai and Brian To’o.
FORM: Papua New Guinea accounted for Lebanon 42-18, though there were some scrappy periods and defensive lapses that the Kumuls will need to tidy up.
Samoa ran riot in Round 1, swamping a hopelessly outclassed and overpowered France 78-4.
INS AND OUTS: Papua New Guinea has named Bailey Biondi-Odo at halfback again, but last week he started on the bench and came on for the last 17 minutes. Epel Kapinias and Jack de Belin are also named to start, with Josh Feledy, Rodrick Tai and Khaiya Waiembi joining the interchange.
Deine Mariner’s hamstring injury sees Su’a Faalogo start on the left wing after he come off the bench early against France and scored four tries. Ronald Volkman takes Faalogo’s place on the interchange.
KEY MATCH-UP: Kumuls five-eighth Gairo Voro was a sparkplug against Lebanon and will be a go-to player this week. Chanel Harris-Tavita stood out in the Samoa No.6 jumper in Round 1.
HISTORY: Samoa is 3-0 against Papua New Guinea, winning 26-18 in Apia in 2009, 38-4 in the 2013 World Cup at Hull, and 24-6 in the 2019 Oceania Cup in Sydney.
KEY STAT: The Kumuls have won 15 of their last 16 Tests in Port Moresby and have not conceded more than 43 points there since 2001.
VERDICT: Coming off what was effectively a training run against France, this assignment represents a potential banana skin for Samoa – an unfamiliar and challenging venue in sweltering conditions against a team that always brings physicality.
Man for man, the Kumuls look comprehensively outmatched. But in their own backyard it may not be the complete whitewash many are predicting – though improving their error and missed tackle rates are imperative.
PNG vs Samoa Odds & Popular Betting Markets
Here’s a quick look at the current odds and popular betting markets for the PNG vs Samoa matchup.
*odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change
| Team | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Samoa) | 7.25 | Bet Now |
| Sualauvi Fa'alogo (Samoa) | 6.40 | Bet Now |
| Brian To'o (Samoa) | 6.80 | Bet Now |
| Stephen Crichton (Samoa) | 9.00 | Bet Now |
| Izack Tago (Samoa) | 12.50 | Bet Now |
| Chanel Harris-Tavita (Samoa) | 15.00 | Bet Now |
| Robert Derby (Papua New Guinea) | 16.00 | Bet Now |
| Jermaine McEwen (Samoa) | 17.00 | Bet Now |
| Dudley Dotoi (Papua New Guinea) | 19.00 | Bet Now |
| Francis Manuleleua (Samoa) | 19.00 | Bet Now |
| Jarome Luai (Samoa) | 19.00 | Bet Now |
| Connelly Lemuelu (Samoa) | 19.00 | Bet Now |
| Benaiah Ioelu (Samoa) | 26.00 | Bet Now |
| Nene Macdonald (Papua New Guinea) | 26.00 | Bet Now |
| Zac Laybutt (Papua New Guinea) | 29.00 | Bet Now |
| Ata Mariota (Samoa) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
| Morea Morea (Papua New Guinea) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
| Gairo Voro (Papua New Guinea) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
| Junior Paulo (Samoa) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
| Jazz Tevaga (Samoa) | 34.00 | Bet Now |
Men's World Cup odds correct as of 21/10/2026 and subject to change. Event scheduled to start at 24/10/2026 2:25pm AEST.