Tonga vs Lebanon Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

Tonga made arguably the biggest statement of the opening round and are searching for a points differential boost against plucky Lebanon.

FORM: Tonga wore England down in a physical, professional 30-12 win in Perth. Isaiya Katoa pulled the strings superbly on the back of a rumbling pack.

Lebanon performed creditably in a 42-18 loss to Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby, fighting back to 18-12 and 30-18 deficits.

INS AND OUTS: Tui Lolohea starts at five-eighth for Tonga, while Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti get their first starts of the tournament for Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia. A rejigged pack sees Stefano Utoikamanu and Kulikefu Finefeuaki coming into the run-on side and Taniela Paseka joining the bench.

Lebanon’s only change sees Moustafa Dirani come in at hooker and Yehya Ayache move to the bench.

KEY MATCH-UP: Tonga veteran Jason Taumalolo was a monster against England and shifts to the No.13 this week. Opposing lock Alex Twal is the inspiration in the Lebanon pack.

HISTORY: An oft-forgotten chapter in Tonga’s watershed 2017 World Cup campaign, they got out of jail with a 24-22 quarterfinal win over Lebanon in Christchurch – the nations’ only meeting to date.

KEY STAT: Lebanon has only lost two Tests by margins of more than 44 points – against New Zealand in 2000 (64-0) and Russia in 2008 (80-0).

VERDICT: Tonga passed its first RLWC test with flying colours to stamp themselves as a genuine title contender. Making only minor tweaks to the line-up, Kristian Woolf’s side will recognise the importance of not taking their foot off the pedal with for-and-against to potentially play a big role.

Lebanon punches above its weight, but the Cedars pack was outgunned by their Kumuls counterparts – and that disparity is almost certain to be even more stark in Sydney this week.

SGM: TONGA BY 41-50 / TUIMOALA LOLOHEA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LEKA HALASIMA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JASON SAAB ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $61.13