The 2026 Rugby League World Cup pool stage started and finished with a bang – with a bevy of blowouts in between – to set up arguably the two biggest, most tantalising semifinals in the tournament’s history.
Meanwhile, mirroring the men’s matches, the Pacific underdogs in the women’s semis also provide genuine value against the traditional might of Australia and New Zealand.
A mouth-wateringly explosive first semifinal awaits in Newcastle as fierce rivals Tonga and New Zealand vie for a spot in the Suncorp Stadium decider.
FORM: It’s been plain sailing for the Kiwis since an unlucky 24-22 loss to the Kangaroos in the tournament opener, pulverising Cook Islands (82-16) and Fiji (78-0) on the back of engine-room dominance and classy finishing.
Tonga won a crunch opener against England 30-12 and subdued Lebanon 36-0, before edging out Samoa in a 20-18 classic. After they gave up a 10-point second-half lead, Tonga snatched the win via Addin Fonua-Blake’s 72nd-minute try.
INS AND OUTS: Tonga’s line-up is unchanged. Leka Halasima has again been named in No.18 but got on the field last week with bench hooker Soni Luke unused. Paul Alamoti, Kulikefu Finefeuaki and Sione Katoa are the reserves in a deep squad.
The only change to the Kiwis’ 17 sees Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad come onto the wing for Ronaldo Mulitalo, whose suspension is a real blow. But the selection of Kalyn Ponga (arm) and Phoenix Crossland (suspension) hints that a significant reshuffle could occur in coming days.
KEY MATCH-UP: There’s some pivotal duels ahead in the spine and out wide, but whoever gets the better of the battle up front – James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota or Addin Fonua-Blake and Jason Taumalolo – will have a major bearing on this one.
Meanwhile, No.13s Joe Tapine and Francis Manuleleua are having marvellous tournaments, and Naufahu Whyte has been a beast off the bench for the Kiwis – impact the likes of Stefano Utoikamanu will be aiming to replicate.
HISTORY: Tonga kick-started an international rugby league revolution with a 28-22 win over New Zealand in Hamilton at the 2017 World Cup, while Isaiya Katoa’s field goal earned a 25-24 victory in Auckland in 2024 after the Kiwis had fought from 24-0 down.
But the Kiwis powered to a 40-14 victory at Eden Park during last year’s Pacific Championships, having built a 24-2 halftime lead.
KEY STAT: Jamayne Isaako has kicked 31 goals from 32 attempts at this tournament. Isaiya Katoa is 11 from 12. Casey McLean has scored 15 tries in just seven Tests for the Kiwis.
VERDICT: Strap in for a monumental showdown. Both teams have lived up to the hype and the winner arguably deserves to head into the following week’s final as the favourite.
The Kiwis’ relentless middle-forward rotation is an obvious strength, but they may met their match in the shape of their Tongan counterparts.
Meanwhile, Mulitalo’s absence seemingly gives the Tongan three-quarter line an edge, and the potential injection of Ponga and Crossland on their home track is a make-or-break proposition for Stacey Jones.
The sense of expectation could weigh heavily on Tonga, who only boast a few players that have won their way through to an NRL grand final; the Kiwis could have as many as 14 NRL grand finalists on show. But nothing about Tonga’s performances to date suggest they can’t get the job done here.
Tip: Back Tonga to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90
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Unbeaten Australia confront one of the most daunting semifinal assignments in their World Cup history in the shape of in-form Samoa.
FORM: The Kangaroos have been unmistakably patchy through the pool phase but have done enough to come away with three wins, overturning second-half deficits to beat New Zealand (24-22) and Fiji (36-22) before soundly beating Cook Islands (66-6).
Samoa crushed France (78-4) and Papua New Guinea (64-6), while they were gallant in a 20-18 defeat to Tonga in an epic encounter. Fighting back from a 10-point deficit to hit the lead with replacement half Ronald Volkman instrumental, Samoa was pegged back inside the final 10 minutes.
INS AND OUTS: Australia’s starting line-up is unchanged with Latrell Mitchell left on the six-man bench and Bradman Best and Kotoni Staggs holding onto the centre spots. Cameron Murray returns to the interchange at Lindsay Smith’s expense, while Ethan Strange is retained in the No.14.
Ronald Volkman comes in to start at five-eighth with Chanel Harris-Tavita ruled out. Jazz Tevaga is again named in the No.14 but could start at hooker, as he did against Tonga. Deine Mariner returns to the six-man bench after picking up an injury early in Samoa’s opening pool game.
KEY MATCH-UP: Queensland fullbacks Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow are arguably their respective teams’ most important player. Walsh had two line-breaks and five try assists against Cook Islands, while the ‘Hammer’ has four tries and two try assists in the tournament so far.
HISTORY: Australia is 5-0 against Samoa, winning each clash by at least 20 points. The Kangaroos prevailed 30-10 in the 2022 World Cup final and cruised to a 38-12 victory in the 2023 Pacific Championships…with Tabuai-Fidow scoring two tries for the green-and-golds.
KEY STAT: Tom Trbojevic and Jack Bostock have scored 13 tries between them at this World Cup. Sua Faalogo leads the way for Samoa with six tries.
Australia has won 21 straight World Cup matches.
VERDICT: Australia’s grip on favouritism for a fourth straight World Cup crown has loosened thanks to an underwhelming pool campaign – rarely have the green-and-golds looked more vulnerable. Physically, the Kangaroos struggled against the Kiwis and Fiji.
Samoa match up well across the park, with the form of a rejuvenated Jarome Luai, a crack back-five and hungry, dynamic back-rowers their trump cards. Australia’s superiority at hooker and five-eighth, the presence of the mercurial Walsh and vast big-match experience still puts them in the box seat.
But Samoa will have taken so much confidence from their fightback against Tonga. Australia will have to dig deep to keep the streak alive.
Tip: Back Samoa to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.98
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Fetu Samoa shape as a genuine chance to pull off their biggest-ever victory as they line up against a wobbly Kiwi Ferns outfit.
FORM: It was a patchy pool campaign for the Kiwi Ferns, who bookended a 92-0 demolition of France with a fortunate 18-12 win over debutants Fiji and an eventually comfortable 40-12 defeat of PNG after trailing late in the first half.
Samoa held all-destroying Australia to 40-0, before pummelling Wales 76-0 and claiming a historic 24-6 win over England.
INS AND OUTS: Centre Mele Hufanga and five-eighth Charntay Kiria-Ratu return for New Zealand, while Otesa Pule comes into the starting front-row. Annessa Biddle replaces Brooke Anderson on the bench.
Samoa’s only starting line-up change sees Fanua Rimoni slot in at lock with Tavarna Papalii going to the bench.
KEY MATCH-UP: If Samoa can match the Kiwi Ferns up front, an upset could be on the cards. Ex-New Zealand rep Annetta Nuuausala has to set the tone for the underdogs, while Otesa Pule has a big job to do at prop for the Kiwi Ferns.
HISTORY: The Kiwi Ferns are 5-0 against Fetu Samoa, scoring 206 points to 40. But Samoa will take massive confidence from last season’s Pacific Championships clash between the nations, storming to a 20-0 halftime lead before being run down 22-20.
KEY STAT: The Kiwi Ferns have contested every World Cup final.
Stacey Waaka has scored six tries in this tournament for New Zealand, while Freedom Crichton Ropati leads the way for Samoa with four.
VERDICT: The vast experience of spine trio Apii Nicholls, Raecene McGregor and Georgia Hale, and the strike out wide – particularly via gun centre pairing Waaka and Hufanga – provides the Kiwi Ferns with an enviable platform to keep their World Cup final record intact.
But New Zealand’s overall form has been more than a little concerning, while Samoa’s performances over the past three weeks and when these nations met last year suggest this semifinal will be fought on a knife’s edge.
The Kiwi Ferns may just have that extra bit of polish and poise to get them over the line.
Tip: Back Samoa to Cover the Line (+12.5) @ $1.90
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The Jillaroos’ irresistible march through the World Cup forges onto the semis, where surprise packet Fiji awaits.
FORM: Australia has been merciless in dismantling Samoa (40-0), England (78-0) and Wales (124-6).
Fiji was unlucky not to come away with a boilover win against New Zealand, eventually going down 18-12. They subsequently swamped Papua New Guinea (40-4) and France (54-6) in a stellar maiden World Cup campaign.
INS AND OUTS: Five-eighth Jocelyn Kelleher, hooker Olivia Higgins, and forwards Millie Elliott, Simaima Taufa and Tiana Penitani Gray all return to the Jillaroos’ starting side.
Maria Paseka is back on the wing for Fiji after missing the past two games, while Lorren Ieli comes in at prop, Leilani Ahsam moves to lock and Talei Holmes shifts to the second-row.
KEY MATCH-UP: Wests Tigers halfback Losana Lutu has been superb for Fiji, while Sydney Roosters No.7 and Jillaroos linchpin Tarryn Aiken is one of the code’s most influential players.
HISTORY: First meeting.
KEY STAT: Australia has won 25 of its last 26 Tests, with 15 of those coming by margins of 32-plus points. Meanwhile, the Jillaroos are on a 14-match World Cup winning streak.
Jamie Chapman has scored 14 tries in eight Tests for the Jillaroos. Thalia Marshall scored five tries in two starts for Fiji but has been bumped back to the bench for this clash.
VERDICT: No one is getting close to the Jillaroos at this World Cup – their speed, skill and athleticism is several notches above the competition.
But Fiji has legitimate claims to being the second-most impressive team of the tournament to date. They’re extremely unlikely to run the hosts close, but a team that restricted the number two-ranked team to three tries can expect to cover a colossal line in this semi.
Tip: Back Fiji to Cover the Line (+62.5) @ $1.90
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