Three rounds of pool matches and a fascinating semifinals weekend – with several Pacific nations lighting up the tournament – have left us with a trans-Tasman double-header in the final of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup at Suncorp Stadium.
The Kangaroos and Kiwis are set for an absolute barnburner after staging an extraordinary opener a few weeks ago, while the Jillaroos are heavy favourites to continue their dominance against the Kiwi Ferns.
The Kiwis return to the scene of their only Rugby League World Cup triumph – 18 years on – and are rated a red-hot chance of ending the Kangaroos’ reign as champions.
FORM: Underwhelming in pool wins over New Zealand, Fiji and Cook Islands, Australia clicked in the semis to dispose of in-form Samoa 44-12. The Kangaroos scored five tries to none in the first half.
After letting the tournament opener against the Kangaroos slip away, the Kiwis have been utterly dominant – racking up massive scores against Cook Islands and Fiji, then overwhelming dangerous Tonga 34-10 in the semis. New Zealand showed tremendous poise and control after falling 10-6 behind.
INS AND OUTS: Australia’s squad is unchanged, with Kevin Walters avoiding the temptation to bring Latrell Mitchell back into the starting backline. Tom Dearden and Reece Walsh justified their semifinal selection with impressive displays against Samoa.
Ronaldo Mulitalo returns from suspension on the wing for Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in New Zealand’s only change. Naufahu Whyte has been named on the bench despite leaving the field against Tonga with an ankle problem; Leo Thompson is waiting in the wings should Whyte fail to recover.
KEY MATCH-UP: Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga produced one of the great individual Test duels four weeks ago and shape as the most important players on the park in the final. Both were superb in the semis, with Ponga’s brave and brilliant display 23 days after breaking his arm especially notable.
HISTORY: The Kangaroos have won 10 of 12 Tests against the Kiwis in the previous decade, including a heart-stopping 24-22 victory in the opening match of this tournament in Sydney.
The Kiwis have won four of the past five matches between the nations at Suncorp Stadium (they have not played there since 2015), while they have beaten the Kangaroos in five of eight international tournament finals since 2005 – most recently a 30-0 rout in the 2023 Pacific Championships.
KEY STAT: Australia is on a 22-match World Cup winning streak since losing the 2008 final to New Zealand.
Casey McLean and Tom Trbojevic have both scored eight tries in four matches at this tournament, while Jack Bostock has crossed seven times.
VERDICT: The Kiwis are widely regarded as the most impressive team of this World Cup, physically outpointing every team they’ve played with a big, brutal pack.
Kalyn Ponga has added a new dimension, Jahrome Hughes has built very nicely and Casey McLean especially has been an elite strike weapon. They were forced to dig deep in tough conditions against an excellent Tonga team and ultimately came away with an authoritative win.
But the Kangaroos’ ability to win while playing below their best and on the back foot is a major factor that could prove decisive in the final. The likes of Walsh, Munster, Grant, Dearden and Yeo have starred in Origin and grand final victories with their teams’ backs against the wall.
The Kiwis may have a clear advantage in the engine-room, but there’s several positions elsewhere that clearly favour the green-and-golds.
Australia has a history of peaking at the right time, though New Zealand’s record in tournament finals – and a very good strike-rate in Brisbane dating back to Lang Park days – and a smattering of top-tier match-winners will provide Stacey Jones’ side with some confidence.
Buckle up for what should be one of the great contests between the archrivals, but the Kangaroos shape as the best bet here as only a slight favourite.
Tip: Back Australia to Win @ $1.70
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 6.5 POINTS / OVER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KALYN PONGA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DANE GAGAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACK BOSTOCK ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $86.85
The only two nations to win the women’s Rugby League World Cup, the Jillaroos and Kiwi Ferns meet in the tournament decider for the fourth consecutive occasion.
FORM: Australia romped through pool play, scoring 242 points to four in winning their three games. But the three-time defending world champs were handed a wake-up call in the semis by Fiji, held to 8-all at halftime and only sealing a 30-14 result in the dying stages.
New Zealand bumbled through pool wins over Fiji and Papua New Guinea either side of a landslide victory over France, before putting in a much more polished display in a 32-0 semifinal shutout of Samoa.
INS AND OUTS: The Jillaroos’ only change sees Jesse Southwell return at five-eighth for Jocelyn Kelleher. Seven members of this side featured in the 50-point defeat of the Kiwi Ferns in the 2022 final.
The Kiwi Ferns are unchanged and will field six survivors from the 2022 final; Apii Nicholls and Raecene McGregor line up in their third World Cup decider.
KEY MATCH-UP: Jillaroos and Sydney Roosters linchpin Tarryn Aiken won her second Karyn Murphy Medal in three years just last month – she is an elite big-match performer at halfback.
Aiken was third in the Dally M Medal count to her No.7 opponent this Sunday, Wests Tigers’ vastly experienced Raecene McGregor, who will be the fulcrum of the Kiwi Ferns’ attack and direction.
HISTORY: New Zealand still holds a 17-15 advantage overall against Australia, but the Jillaroos have won 11 of the last 12 encounters.
The Jillaroos have defeated the Kiwi Ferns in the last three World Cup finals – 22-12 in 2013, 23-16 in 2017 and 54-4 in 2022.
KEY STAT: The Kiwi Ferns have not managed more than 12 points in their last nine encounters with the Jillaroos.
VERDICT: The Jillaroos never looked anything less than title certainties through the group stage…but a tough semifinal against Fiji may just have provided a blueprint for a Kiwi Ferns side that possesses many of the same qualities.
Of the score of speed, fitness and strike, Australia holds a clear advantage. New Zealand can put a spanner in the works if they cut down the time Aiken, Upton and co. have with the ball, get physical in the middle of the park and – which hasn’t bee a strong suit at this World Cup – take their own chances.
Stacey Waaka has been sensational for the Kiwi Ferns and Mele Hufanga is a match-winner, while McGregor is among the craftiest players in the women’s game.
The Jillaroos should ultimately be too strong and the Brisbane heat could be a factor with a 3pm kick-off and a more mobile pack, but if semifinal trends continue the Kiwi Ferns are solid value to cover.
Tip: Back New Zealand to Cover the Line (+20.5) @ $1.85
SGM: AUSTRALIA BY 11-20 / UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS / STACEY WAAKA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ISABELLE KELLY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $41.49