Week 9 was a beauty for the tips. The Saints finally won at home, the Jags covered the big line with plenty to spare, the Giants handled Philly and the Packers put 45 on New England. We don’t talk about the Jets +10.
The trade deadline has come and gone, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Bucs are on the bye, and the NFL makes its last European stop of the year in Munich.
Here are my tips and predictions for Week 10 of the NFL.
Who had the Giants at 5–2–1 and leading the NFC East at this point of the season? Not me. J.J. McCarthy copped a hip injury and five sacks in Philly, but Harbaugh sounds confident he’ll be right for the short turnaround. Washington are 2–5–1 and couldn’t get anything going last week, but they do own a plus seven turnover margin, so expect them to hunt for cheap possessions.
The Giants are 6–2 against the spread this year, and the first meeting ended in a tie. I can’t see a second one. The big news for me is Cam Skattebo, who was a late scratch with a hamstring last week but should be full-go here. Give me the Giants to win and Skattebo to find the end zone.
The NFL’s last European trip of the season and it’s a cracker. Mike Vrabel admitted the Pats got their backsides handed to them last week, a 45–27 hiding from the Packers with Drake Maye throwing three first-half picks. Detroit are 6–2, but it hasn’t been pretty lately, scraping past Miami 19–9 with just one touchdown.
That touchdown came from Jahmyr Gibbs, his 11th of the season, and he’s about the safest anytime scorer on the slate. The Lions’ defence is banged up and ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed, so I think Maye bounces back with a big day through the air. Too hard to split on the result, so I’m sticking with the players.
I got burned backing the Jets last week and I’m not falling for it twice. They got rolled 35–12 by the Chiefs and have now lost four straight. Buffalo, meanwhile, went into Minnesota and choked the life out of the Vikings 23–6 on Monday night to move to 7–1.
Josh Allen already has nine rushing touchdowns, which is ridiculous for a quarterback, and the Bills lead the league in goal-to-go rushing scores. Jets games do love an under (18–7 since the start of last season), so I’m not touching the total, but I’ll take the Bills at the line and Allen to punch one in himself.
I told you the Saints would get their first win at home, and they did it the hard way, holding on 23–22 after Cleveland went for two in overtime and missed. Carolina, on the other hand, are in freefall. They lost to Denver, fired their DC, and the Bryce Young MVP chat feels like a lifetime ago.
The Saints have won their last three home games against Carolina and swept the series last year. Early money has leaned Panthers, but I’m riding the momentum with New Orleans. For a bit of value, Chuba Hubbard still gets the short-yardage and red-zone work, so I’ll throw him in for a touchdown.
C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns as Houston put 44 on the Chargers, and the feel-good story of the season kept rolling with Tank Dell catching four for 105 and a score. They’re finally clicking. Cleveland handed the keys to Shedeur Sanders, and he looked better than Watson, but they still found a way to lose.
The total is one of the lowest of the week at around 39, so I’m not expecting fireworks in Cleveland. But Houston will likely get it done, and Tank Dell will keep the comeback story going with 50 plus yards.
The Jags were my pick to go deep last week and they did nothing to change my mind, thumping the Ravens 33–10. That’s back-to-back wins by 20 plus, and the defence has allowed just 17 points in two games since the bye. They came into Week 9 first against the run, second in points allowed and seventh in pressure rate.
Now they get the Titans, who I still reckon are the worst team in the league, and Cam Ward has struggled against this defence before. I’ll take the big line again, and Parker Washington, who took a Lawrence pass 50 yards to the house on Thursday night, for a touchdown.
Well, Kenneth Walker made me look silly for backing the Jets, dominating as the Chiefs cruised 35–12. When Walker gets going this offence works, and when he doesn’t, it really doesn’t. But KC finally did something about that receiver room at the deadline, trading for Josh Downs, and this passing game should get a real lift.
Atlanta are a mess. They’ve lost five of their last six after the Bengals put 34 on them in Madrid, and Penix has already had a four-interception day this season. Walker should do the heavy lifting with 80 plus on the ground, and I think Downs slots straight in as Mahomes’ main target and gets on the board in his first game. Give me the Chiefs at the line, Walker for 80 plus, and Downs for an anytime touchdown.
This is the sellers’ bowl. The Colts have well and truly waved the white flag, shipping out Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Josh Downs before the deadline, and they’re 2–7 after falling short against my Cowboys. Jonathan Taylor is the last man standing, and he must be looking around a locker room full of empty seats wondering why he couldn’t get out of this absolute mess too. Miami copped a 19–9 loss to Detroit in one of the ugliest offensive days of the week.
I’m not touching the result in this one. This could go one of two ways for JT: he either loses all interest, or he has an absolute blinder to remind everyone why he’s worth a big price on the trade market come season’s end. I’m backing the latter, with Taylor for 80 plus, and my guy Ollie Gordon to keep grinding for 50 plus on the other side.
Is Jordan Love in the MVP conversation now? He had arguably the best game by any quarterback this season against the Pats: 372 yards, three passing touchdowns and one on the ground, with Matthew Golden and Christian Watson combining for 335 receiving yards. The run game is basically non-existent, but it doesn’t matter, because this offence is unbelievable.
Minnesota are in trouble. Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring strain, and now Kirk Cousins returns to the Vikings in what has to be the weirdest, borderline incompetent quarterback rotation a team has ever had. Cousins, then J.J. McCarthy, then Sam Darnold, then McCarthy again, then Kyler Murray, then Carson Wentz, and now back to Cousins. Full circle. It’s crazy. Cousins gets thrown straight in at Lambeau after Wentz couldn’t get them into the end zone in that 23–6 loss to Buffalo, and the Vikings have the fewest red-zone touchdowns in the league. We saw last week what happens when a top offence meets the league’s best defence: it got ugly, and the offence reigned supreme. I can see this going the same way. Packers at the line, and Love for two plus touchdowns.
You’ve got to feel for Fernando Mendoza. The Raiders have shipped Kirk Cousins to the Vikings for a third-round pick, so the number one overall pick gets his first start, and he’s thrown straight into back-to-back games against two of the meanest defences in the league, Seattle this week and Denver next. The Seahawks allow just 18 points a game, while Vegas give up a league-worst 29.8.
Seattle aren’t exactly flying on offence either. Sam Darnold is out again with a quad injury and a cracked rib, so it’s the Drew Lock show for another week, and that defence will probably do enough to get them home. But can Mendoza prove people wrong like he did in college? It’ll be tough, but we love a bit of optimism in this blog, so I’m backing the rookie to throw two plus touchdowns on debut.
Revenge game. Arizona pulled off one of the upsets of the year by beating the Rams 18–16 back in Week 6, but this is a very different Rams side now. They’ve won three straight, and Myles Garrett is finally back and looking like Myles Garrett, with three sacks against Washington. After the injury to Minshew, Arizona have now switched to Carson Beck. Going to your third-string quarterback is usually a massive red flag, but I really liked what Beck showed in the preseason, and he’s got the college pedigree, national title and all. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw it reasonably well.
The Rams’ offence is the bigger question mark. With Puka likely headed to IR and Davante Adams already there, the receiver room is Tutu Atwell and a bunch of random names. This is shaping as the Kyren Williams show, so I’ll take him for a touchdown, with the Rams -7 and Beck for 225 plus passing yards. And separately, Garrett for a sack.
The Cowboys beat the Colts but didn’t cover my line, which is the most Cowboys thing possible. Now they host a 7–1 Niners side that put 38 on Vegas, with McCaffrey scoring on the ground and through the air.
As a Cowboys fan I can’t bet against my team, and as a sane person I can’t bet against the Niners, so I’m staying off the result. Dallas haven’t beaten the Niners since 2020, and the Niners have won four straight in this rivalry, two of those in the playoffs. The total is the highest of the week at around 55 for a reason. That Dallas defence is leaky, and the Cowboys offence racked up 510 yards last week. Give me the over, McCaffrey for a touchdown and CeeDee for 70 plus. This is going to be a long day for Dallas.
Sunday night with the AFC North on the line. Both teams are 6–2, and Pittsburgh won the first meeting in Week 3, so they hold the tiebreaker. Burrow and the Bengals did the job in Madrid, but they’ve had the long trip home, while the Steelers come in rested off the bye.
I love what Burrow’s doing, but that rest edge has me taking the Steelers with the start. Ja’Marr Chase is too good to leave out of any Bengals bet, though, so he’s in for a touchdown.
The Chargers are 0–8 and look like they’ve already checked out. Derrick Henry has had a pretty down year by his standards, averaging just 3.9 yards a carry after 5.2 last season, so expect him to be the focal point against a pretty weak Chargers front. Zay Flowers has been quiet too, and that’s down to the poor quarterback play.
If there’s one thing we know from his time in Arizona, it’s that Brissett gets the ball to his key receivers, so Flowers’ catches should be up. And yes, this one is purely for my fantasy team. Ravens to win, King Henry to find the end zone, and Flowers for seven plus catches.