The AFL ladder is starting to become very cramped at the top with the Melbourne Demons suffering their first loss of the season in round 10 and the Western Bulldogs have dethroned them on top.
The best thing is, we get to see a top of the table clash in prime time this Friday night thanks to the AFL rolling fixture as the Dees and Dogs do battle at Marvel Stadium to kick start round 11.
That is not the only crucial game this weekend with the 4th placed Brisbane Lions hosting the 8th placed GWS at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon.
We have analysed every game and our full 2021 AFL Round 11 Preview, with our thoughts and betting plays, can be read below.
Friday, May 28, 7:50pm, Marvel Stadium
It was a very contrasting round 10 for both of these sides.
Melbourne lost their first game of the season by the barest of margins at the Adelaide Oval while the Doggies gave St Kilda a touch up to the tune of 111 points.
It was a very ordinary performance from Melbourne who turned the football over 78 times in total during the game. This is an area of concern going forward as they put the football into the opposition side at an average of 72.8 per game this season which is the 6th worst in the comp.
The Western Bulldogs percentage jumped to 161.9 with their huge win over St Kilda and their free flowing, attacking brand of football is the benchmark for other teams to either replicate or combat for the rest of the season.
The Dogs are 3rd for Uncontested Possessions and they turn the football over the second least amount of times aside from West Coast and Geelong in 2021 which is testament to the fact that they have scored the most amount of points as well.
The Dogs will not get it all their own way with Melbourne’s back six being very solid all year and their defensive zone has been in unison all year which will make it tough for the Dogs to penetrate through the middle of the ground and out of defense.
Tip: Western Bulldogs @ $1.64
Saturday, May 29, 1:45pm, MCG
Expectations have been recalibrated for Collingwood in recent weeks and many pundits and punters have admitted at overrating the depth and overall talent of the Pies.
The pressure was somewhat relieved for Nathan Buckley as his team went extremely close to knocking off one the premiership favourites in Port Adelaide in round 10.
It was far from the prettiest game of football to watch with Collingwood intent on playing ‘keepings off’ for the majority of the football game, something that came unstuck late in the game.
The Pies have scored the fourth least amount of points, they have also conceded the eighth amount of points going the other way.
Geelong were challenged early against the Gold Coast Suns at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday but ran away clear winners by 34 points in the end.
Mitch Duncan was subbed out of the game with concussion and Cameron Guthrie was nursing a shoulder injury but played out the game.
The patience that Geelong has shown with Quinton Narkle seems to be paying off as the midfielder gathered a career high 34 possessions, adding depth to an already very deep midfield group that will at some stage welcome the return of Brownlow Medalist Patrick Dangerfield.
Don’t expect this to be a high scoring and exciting game of football with both coaches putting a premium on controlling the football for long periods of time.
Collingwood have actually won two of the last three games between these two sides.
Just like their game against Port, I expect Collingwood’s defensive press to hold through the first half but fade late in the game.
Tip: Highest Scoring Half – 2nd @ $1.70
Saturday, May 29, 2:10pm, Gabba
The Brisbane Lions are possibly the in-form team of the competition having won their last six in a row by an average margin of 41.5 points.
They have also won 14 of their last 16 at the Gabba.
Their latest scalp was the defending premier to the tune of 28 points in round 10, dominating Richmond through the middle of the ground.
The Lions won the hit-outs 42-28 and in turn the clearances 51-24 and stoppages 35-13.
With the absence of Lachie Neale with have seen the emergence of Jarryd Lyons who is 4th in the competition for contested possessions and fifth for stoppage clearances.
After losing their first three games, the Giants have also found form in recent weeks, winning five of their last seven.
A narrow defeat to Richmond and a 39 point loss to the Western Bulldogs have been the speed humps along the way but there has been plenty to like about the Giants and they sit just inside the the top eight on percentage.
The Lions forward line is firing at the minute and Charlie Cameron has been the main catalyst for Brisbane’s scoring prowess during this streak of wins.
They go inside 50 more than any team in the competition aside from Richmond and Port Adelaide at an average of 45.8 and on the flip side, GWS struggle in this area at an average of just 38.2 entries inside 50 per game.
It’s hard seeing the hosts getting beaten but GWS have shown plenty of fight and if their recent form continues, and they remain competitive at the stoppages, they will not be blown out of the park.
Tip: Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $1.96
Saturday, May 29, 4:35pm, Marvel Stadium
What is the opposite of flat track bullies?
St Kilda suffered their third loss of over 75 points in season 2021 when the Western Bulldogs gave them a footy lesson and belted them by 111 points last weekend.
It is one thing getting beaten. It’s another getting beaten by 100+ points. That only happens to very ordinary football teams.
They were well beaten everywhere. Pick your stat. They were -27 for inside 50s and -13 in clearances.
They had 26 less tackles despite having 58 less uncontested possessions.
There is no way that I can back them until I see a vast improvement in these areas.
St Kilda has failed to cover the line in five of its last seven matches as a favourite and last placed North Melbourne have shown plenty in recent weeks despite limited talent.
Tip: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday, May 29, 7:40pm, TIO Stadium
**Update: this game has been moved to the SCG**
Gold Coast (15th 3W 7L) head to Darwin to take on Hawthorn (17th 2W 8L) this Saturday evening.
Despite both teams continuing to build their lists through the draft in the off season, both teams’ supporters should feel a level of disappointment through ten rounds of footy.
Injuries to key position players has taken it’s toll on both sides which can put real pressure on the depth on a developing list.
Hawthorn have now lost their last four straight games and has failed to cover the line in their last seven, which simply means they are not living up to expectations.
After the Suns put together wins against Sydney and Collingwood there was a sense of optimism around a club that has wallowed in the middle and lower end of the ladder for their entire existence.
Alas, they have now lost their last three in a row, the most worrying was a 73 point belting against their QLD rivals in round nine at Metricon Stadium.
With the last two rounds an exception, they have proved a team very hard to score against in season 2021.
In fact, excluding rounds nine and ten, they have averaged just 72.87 points per game against.
Tip: Gold Coast 1-39 @ $2.10
West Coast Eagles
Saturday, May 29, 7:40pm, Optus Stadium
The old adage that all West Coast needs to do to play finals is win their home games is proving particularly true in season 2021 so far.
Five games at home for five wins. Five games away from home for a single win against the lowly Hawthorn.
Their average winning margin when at home is 31.6 points and their average losing margin away is 35.
Essendon remains consistently inconsistent.
A one point loss to Hawthorn to start the year and a 57 point loss in the torrential rain in Brisbane have been the low points.
A four goal Anzac Day win over rivals Collingwood and a 72 point thumping of the recently resilient North Melbourne last week the highlights.
Ben Rutten has his team putting a premium on retaining the football which is evident in their uncontested possession rate (4th in AFL).
The problem has been the way they have used the football when they have it.
The Bombers have the second worst disposal efficiency in the competition in front of only Hawthorn.
West Coast will make them pay if this does not improve with plenty of in form and dangerous forward options up forward.
Nic Naitanui is the only ruckman inside the top 10 for Stoppage Clearances (8th) and only ruckman in the top 20 for Centre Clearances (10th).
With the Eagles strong form at home I’ll back that trend to continue and they have covered the line in seven of their last nine against Essendon so I will take them with a line currently at just over 4 goals.
West Coast -26.5 @ $1.90
Sunday, May 30, 1:10pm, MCG
The defending premiers find themselves in a precarious position outside the top eight through 10 rounds and there are a number of worrying signs for Damien Hardwick and his troops.
They are 13th for average contested possessions in the competition, 2nd in clangers, 17th in stoppage clearances and 15th for disposal efficiency (71.4%).
They have also conceded more points than they have scored.
Adelaide secured one of the biggest upsets of the season when they toppled the undefeated Melbourne Demons at home last weekend.
That win broke a string of five straight losses for the Crows after an unexpectedly good start to season 2021.
It will be a welcome return to the home of football and playing under the natural sunlight (I assume) having won 23 of their last 24 day games at the MCG.
Richmond will be determined to rebound after a very disappointing performance against Brisbane last weekend and I’m confident it will be a comfortable margin.
Tip: Richmond 40+ @ $2.35
Sunday, May 30, 3:20pm, SCG
The Sydney Swans have been the surprise packet of season 2021 and they sit inside the top 6 after 10 rounds of football with a record of six wins and four losses.
They were narrowly beaten by Fremantle in Perth last weekend but were far from disgraced.
It has been another frustrating season for Carlton fans as their team has just as quickly shown promise as they have incompetence in certain areas of the game.
Scoring hasn’t been an issue, they have scored more points than any other side in the bottom eight except Essendon.
While the Swans have taken 13 of their last 15 matches against Carlton at the SCG, the Blues have covered the line in four of their last five so that is what I will back here.
Tip: Carlton +15.5 @ $1.90
Sunday, May 30, 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide got away with one last Sunday against a very persistent and disciplined Collingwood outfit.
The Power seemingly have plenty of attacking weapons at their disposal with the likes of Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades, Todd Marshall, Steven Motlop, Robbie Gray and Ollie Wines.
But they sit ninth for overall points scored throughout the season.
Despite recording just one win in their the last four weeks, Fremantle sit just outside the top eight on percentage.
Arguably their best victory of the season came last week when they narrowly defeated Sydney at home.
They had 24 more inside 50s, +29 hit-outs, +10 contested marks and +10 tackles inside forward 50.
The Dockers continue to outdo everyone’s expectations and they have now covered the line in six of its last seven matches.
Taking all of those stats into account, this line looks very large and I’ll back the visitors to cover.
Tip: Fremantle +28.5 @ $1.90
The AFL’s frantic fixture rolls over to Round 11 on Saturday kicking off another huge three days of doubleheaders.
Things get off to a bang with the Power hosting the Tigers in a serious top-four battle on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Lions return to the Gabba with the Bulldogs coming to town.
St Kilda v Geelong is the headline act on Monday night, while there’s plenty on the line between the Suns and the Bombers on Wednesday with both clubs hoping to move a step closer to playing finals.
Struggling to keep up with all the action? We’ve got you covered in our 2020 AFL Round 11 Preview below.
Saturday, August 8, 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
The Tigers were simply outstanding on Tuesday night in their 41-point win over the Lions, a performance Damien Hardwick will be hoping his side can replicate against the Power.
Dustin Martin, Tom Lynch, and Jack Riewoldt all enjoyed another big night against Brisbane in a repeat of last year’s Qualifying Final, but the trio will need to be at their best again on Saturday against a Port Adelaide side looking to extend their lead atop the table.
Port Adelaide held on for a nail-biting 13-point win over the Bulldogs on Monday and are in the enviable position of having an extra day’s rest to their advantage.
The Power won’t be short on motivation either after losing twice to Richmond last year.
The Tigers held on for a memorable 99-92 victory at the Adelaide Oval in Round 4, before belting Port by 38-points at the MCG in Round 18.
Both teams came away from their mid-week games unscathed, but we could still see a close, low-scoring game with a few tired legs on the field.
There’s great money on offer head-to-head, but considering Port’s last four games have all gone Under, backing the Total appears to be the safest way to approach this game.
Tip: Under the Points Total
Saturday, August 8, 7:40pm, Gabba
She’ll be a red-hot Sherrin at the Gabba on Saturday night as both the Lions and the Bulldogs hope to bounce-back from respective losses during the week.
The Lions were their own worst enemy on Tuesday night at Metricon as wayward goal-kicking kept their 11-year losing streak against Richmond intact.
The Bulldogs weren’t much better in front of the sticks in their loss to Port, either.
Luke Beveridge’s side kicked five goals and 12 behinds in their 13-point loss at the Adelaide Oval, a defeat that leaves the Bulldogs clinging to a spot in the eight with the Bombers breathing down their neck.
These two sides split their two-game series one win apiece last year.
The Dogs defeated the Lions by two goals when they met in Ballarat, before Brisbane got some revenge in Round 20 with an 18-point win at the Gabba.
Returning to their true home ground should help the Lions this week, but there are some real concerns for Chris Fagan right now.
The Lions clearly didn’t cope well with the short rest last week, while Cam Rayner’s hamstring injury really seemed to throw the forward line into disarray last week.
Meanwhile, down back, Harris Andrews had his fair share of trouble with Tom Lynch on Tuesday, an area the Bulldogs will look to exploit.
All in all, there really isn’t as much separating these two side as the current market suggests, so take the Dogs to keep it close.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+14.5 Points) @ $1.90
West Coast Eagles
Sunday, August 9, 3:35pm, Optus Stadium
A sixth consecutive win would see the Eagles leapfrog Geelong for a spot in the top four on Sunday night.
West Coast, just like Carlton, have enjoyed a handy week off ahead of their clash at Optus Stadium, but it appears this game is already a foregone conclusion according to the market.
The Eagles have gone to another level since returning home to Perth and their recent track record against the Blues suggests they should continue their winning ways.
West Coast has won five straight games over Carlton, while it’s also worth noting the Blues’ last win over the Eagles in Perth came way back in 2014.
The Blues are well-rested, so there’s every chance they keep this game competitive.
Unfortunately, the seven-day break still wasn’t long enough for Jack Silvagni to overcome his rib injury, while Matthew Kreuzer is still more than a month away after fracturing his foot in Round 1.
This is the first game of Carlton’s three-week stint in Western Australia, but it’s difficult to have them here against one of the Premiership favourites.
Tip: Back West Coast to Win & Over the Points Total
Sunday, August 9, 6:10pm, Adelaide Oval
The Dees asserted themselves back in the finals picture on Wednesday with a 51-point thumping over the Crows.
Melbourne’s first half was the stuff of nightmares, but Simon Goodwin has to be proud of the way his club turned things around to hold Adelaide to just one goal in the final two quarters.
North Melbourne were on the opposite end of the scoreboard in their 33-point loss to Geelong.
The Roos were big winners themselves over the Crows back in Round 9, but they failed to capitalise on a pretty strong first quarter against the Cats as the game got away from them.
Melbourne forward Alex Neal-Bullen will face the Match Review panel after his sling tackle against the Crows, but other than that, both clubs came away from their respective midweek games unscathed.
The key battle on Sunday will come in the midfield. The Dees have been unstoppable over the last month as Christian Petracca, Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver continue to rack up big numbers and Brownlow votes.
Surprisingly enough though, North currently ranks third in tackles this year, so there’s every chance they keep this interesting.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line
Monday, August 10, 6:10pm, Gabba
Geelong’s rollercoaster ride continued last week in their 33-point win over North, a result that leaves them right in line for a spot back inside the top four if results go their way.
St Kilda can make life difficult for the Cats however by defeating the Suns on Thursday at Metricon.
The three-day turnaround is a really big ask for the Saints, especially against a Geelong side that has enjoyed the better part of this fixture in recent years, but this does feel like a game Brett Ratten would have had circled on the calendar when the fixture was released.
St Kilda has lost three straight to the Cats dating back to 2016, but the neutral turf at the Gabba makes this game a completely different story.
The Saints should have a real point to prove here against one of the competition heavyweights, and with the Cats also playing on short rest, still without a few of their stars, you have to like St Kilda in this spot.
Tip: Back St Kilda to Win
Monday, August 10, 8:40pm, Optus Stadium
The Dockers and the Hawks both have a chance to earn back-to-back wins on Sunday when they meet in Perth.
Just about everyone had written Hawthorn off following four straight losses, but they still remain in the hunt for a top eight spot after a remarkable come from behind win over the Blues a fortnight ago.
Likewise, Fremantle pulled off a big win of their own against Collingwood in Round 9.
The Dockers have a little more ground to make up on the ladder, but their season is far from over with Nat Fyfe likely to return to the side.
Freo won’t hold particularly fond memories of this fixture, though. After losing to the Hawks in the 2014 Grand Final, the Dockers have only beaten Hawthorn once in six attempts.
It would come as no surprise if either team won this game, but you have to give it to the Hawks.
The extra few days’ rest should do wonders for their injury riddled list, while any added time for Alastair Clarkson to prepare is always a dangerous thing.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line
Tuesday, August 11, 6:35pm, Adelaide Oval
The Crows put up a brave fight in the first quarter against the Dees on Wednesday before they were ultimately steamrolled by 51-points.
Adelaide’s first win of the season is becoming more and more unlikely as the weeks roll on, and things aren’t about to get any easier against Collingwood on Tuesday.
The Pies have won their last two games against the Crows at Adelaide Oval, so if they pull up okay from Thursday’s narrow win over the Swans at the Gabba, they should be winning this quite comfortably.
With the short odds on offer however, it might be worth finding some value elsewhere.
It just so happens that both Collingwood and Adelaide rank bottom five in goals kicked this season, so the Under is shaping up as a nice little play by itself or in a multi.
Tip: Under the Points Total
Gold Coast Suns
Wednesday, August 12, 7:10pm, Metricon Stadium
It was another rough watch for Suns fans on Thursday as their club put up another gallant effort against a top eight team.
Unfortunately, the Gold Coast fell four-points shy of defeating St Kilda, but there was plenty of merit in the Suns’ performance as they hope to capitalise on Wednesday against the Bombers.
The three day turnaround for the Dons makes this game almost impossible to predict from a betting perspective.
Essendon’s injury list is already a mile long, and it’s tough to see them pulling through Friday’s crucial game against GWS unscathed.
With the Suns enjoying an extra day off and the added luxury of home-field advantage, it’s worth backing the Gold Coast to pull out the upset.
Tip: Back the Suns to Win
We’ve officially reached the halfway point of the season, and with several teams scrambling for a spot in the eight, this weekend’s action promises to pack a punch.
The Cats and the Pies continue to battle atop the ladder, while North kick-start a new era this week without long-time head coach Brad Scott. China also plays hosts to the Saints and the Power on Sunday, followed by an all-important game between the Bombers and Blues.
With the byes only a week away, there’s no time like the present to back a winner. Be sure to read on below for our complete 2019 AFL Round 11 Preview.
Friday May 31, 7:50pm, Marvel Stadium
A primetime game against Richmond is the last thing North Melbourne need after a horror week in the headlines.
With former coach Brad Scott stepping down, Sydney great Rhyce Shaw has been named as the caretaker for the remainder of the season – an enormous job for the inexperienced 37-year-old.
Shaw will oversee the game plan this week against the Tigers – a huge ask on such short notice, especially against a team that has now won three straight.
Richmond’s 23-point win over Essendon last week sees the Tigers back inside the top four, and as their recent record against North suggests, Richmond are the odds on favourite for a reason.
With Scott at the helm one last time, North turned up for a fight last week against the Bulldogs, pulling away in the final term to win by 25-points. Unfortunately, the Roos haven’t won a game against Richmond since 2016.
Winning the clearance battle will be crucial this week. North and Richmond both rank dead last in clearances this year, but if the Tigers’ inside 50 success against Essendon last week is anything to go by, Richmond should have no trouble putting points on the board if they can find some space.
The Tigers rightfully enter as the favourite this week at Marvel. Richmond are 5-2 straight-up as the away favourite, but considering this game isn’t at the MCG, don’t be surprised if the Roos keep this close.
North is a side that once gave Richmond plenty of problems between 2010 and 2015, and with a perfect 2-0 record against the line as the home underdog, take advantage of a generous looking spread.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+19.5) @ $1.90
Saturday June 1, 1:45pm, MCG
Fremantle travels to the MCG for the first time this year on the heels of last week’s gritty one-point win over the Lions in Perth.
Dockers coach Ross Lyon has plenty to be proud of following his side’s efforts, particularly in the fourth quarter as Fremantle absorbed Brisbane’s pressure to win the disposals, inside 50’s and clearance counts by a wide margin.
Collingwood’s week was just as stressful as Nathan Buckley’s side held on for a narrow seven-point win over the Swans in Sydney. It was a strong result with a handful of big-name players missing, but the win didn’t come without a loss as gun midfielder Daniel Wells will now miss three months with a knee injury.
These two sides got together twice last season with Collingwood winning on both occasions. The Pies smashed Fremantle by 61-points at the ‘G in Round 11 before claiming a nine-point win in Perth two months later.
The MCG is often thought of as a fortress for the Pies, but they’ve been a mixed bag at home of late. Collingwood lost to Geelong in Round 1 before reliving last year’s Grand Final nightmare to the Eagles in Round 3.
Still, the Dockers haven’t beaten the Pies at the ‘G since 2006, so it’s tough to take on Fremantle at these odds.
For Collingwood to win, they simply need to replicate Brisbane’s efforts last week through the midfield. Take the speed of Bradley Hill and Michael Walters out of the game, and the Pies should add to Freo’s ugly 2-6 record on the back of a win.
Tip: Back Collingwood 40+ @ $2.22
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday June 1, 1:45pm, Sydney Showground
The odds don’t paint a pretty picture for the Suns as they search for their first win against the Giants since 2014.
To their credit, Gold Coast looked a strong chance last week at home to Geelong before the Cats raced away with four unanswered goals in the final term.
As for the Giants, GWS finally steadied the ship at the MCG defeating Melbourne by 26-points. It was the Harry Himmelberg show last week as the 23-year-old youngster booted a five-goal bag, while Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto combined for a whopping 63 disposals.
As previously mentioned, the Suns don’t hold a great track record against the Giants. In their 11 games since these two sides entered the competition, the Suns have won only four.
There’s no doubt Giants coach Leon Cameron will be treating this Suns side with respect, but he’ll also be looking for a complete four-quarter performance from his team on Saturday.
Despite the Giants’ 7-3 record, they’ve won only five of their 10 first quarters this year – compared to the Suns, who have won six.
Tip: Quarter 1/2/3/4 Leader: Gold Coast Suns/GWS Giants/GWS Giants/GWS Giants @ $8.50
Saturday June 1, 4:35pm, GMHBA Stadium
Things continue to spiral from bad to worse for the Swans as they now find themselves tied with the Demons and Suns on the bottom of the ladder.
Last week’s home game against Collingwood left fans feeling a little empty as the Swans blew a three-goal lead at three-quarter time to go on and lose by seven points.
Geelong supporters also have a few questions of their own after the Cats’ less than convincing performance against the Suns. With Patrick Dangerfield missing, Chris Scott’s side found themselves ahead by only two points at the three-quarter break before kicking four unanswered goals to win comfortably.
It’s become a bit of a theme for the Cats. For all their firepower and talent through the midfield, the ladder leaders have struggled to contain the likes of North Melbourne, the Bulldogs and the Suns throughout various stages of the game over the last three weeks.
Given Sydney’s position on the ladder, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Swans are no chance this week. Keep in mind though, the Swans did cause an upset over Geelong at The Cattery last year, leaving the door ajar for a potential upset.
Straight-up, the Swans are 4-4 as the away underdog against the Cats, but if you’re looking for something a little safer, take Sydney and their 3-2 record as the line underdog. The last two games between these sides have been decided by less than 20-points, so take advantage of the generous line.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+29.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 1, 7:25pm, The Gabba
Chris Fagan’s side returns home this week after a gut-wrenching loss to the Dockers in Perth.
It was a game the Lions deserved to win after applying tremendous pressure through the midfield all game, but after some crucial missed shots at goal as well as a fourth quarter lapse, Brisbane fell by a point to slip back down to sixth on the ladder.
Hawthorn once again finds themselves on the fringe of the eight this week following their resounding 31-point win over Port Adelaide in Launceston. The Power made things interesting in the third quarter, right before the Hawks booted three goals in the final term to win convincingly.
While the Hawks got their season back on track last week, they won’t hold particularly fond memories of the Lions. Brisbane got the better of Hawthorn twice last week – most notably at The Gabba where the Hawks fell by a whopping 56-points.
That win was perhaps the highlight of Brisbane’s season last year, and in many ways, it paved the way for their success in 2019. The Lions have to treat this game as a must-win, and with a 4-1 record at The Gabba, form is certainly on their side.
It might sound simple, but the Lions can win this if they kick straight. It’s been a challenge so far for the likes of Eric Hipwood, and against an equally dangerous forward line like Hawthorn’s, the Hawks can easily make you pay.
Of course, the side that wins the third quarter might just take the points this week. Brisbane’s woes in the third term have been obvious over the last fortnight, which won’t fly against Hawthorn. The Hawks have won six of their 10 third quarters this year, and with a steady 6-4 record as the line underdog over the last 12 months, the Hawks are probably worth backing to keep this close.
Tip: Hawthorn to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90
Saturday June 1, 7:10pm, TIO Stadium (Darwin)
Adelaide will be hungry for a bounce-back after last week’s 12-point loss to the Eagles, and on neutral ground, there’s perhaps no better side to face than the Demons.
Melbourne is once again heading backwards after suffering their second straight defeat last week, this time to the Giants. The Demons are familiar with the dimensions of TIO Stadium, but as the odds suggest, they’re in for a tough fight against a Crows side boasting a 6-5 record on the back of a loss.
There’s a list of reasons for Melbourne’s shortcomings this season, but the most prominent has to be their lack of accuracy in front of goal. The Demons are currently averaging the second-most inside 50’s per-game, but they’ve converted those opportunities into the second-lowest goal average on the season.
The Crows are also notorious for low-scoring games, having scored 100-points or more only once this season. This one looks like a safe Unders bet.
Tip: Under 159.5 Total Points @ $1.84
Sunday June 2, 12:40pm, Jingwan Arena Shanghai (China)
The AFL heads back to China for another year as the Jiangwan Stadium in Shanghai plays host to the Power and the Saints.
Port Adelaide defeated the Suns by 40-points in a low-scoring game at the same venue last year, but they’ll need to be at their best on Sunday if they wish to make up for last week’s loss to Hawthorn.
St. Kilda coach Alan Richardson eased some of the pressure following last week’s 13-point win over Carlton. It was hardly convincing, but the Saints fought hard to win what was a scrappy four quarters, capped off by a handy two-goal game from both Tim Membrey and Josh Bruce.
The market is well in favour of the Power here, but there’s a case to be made for the Saints on neutral turf.
Despite having played on the same ground last year, the Power head to China only a week after a tiring (and unsuccessful) trip to Launceston. Following a flat performance against the Hawks, take the Saints to win in what should be a close affair.
Tip: Back St. Kilda To Win @ $2.60
Sunday June 2, 3:20pm, MCG
A 23-point loss to the Tigers now sees the Bombers fighting for life at just 4-6.
This week’s game against Carlton is the perfect opportunity for John Worsfold’s side to turn things around, but with injuries piling up, the Dons could have a fight on their hands against an equally hungry Blues team.
Carlton once again showed signs of promise during their 13-point loss to the Saints last Sunday, but as we’ve said before, it’s time for the Blues to start winning some games.
These two sides met only once last year, a game Blues fans should hold in high regard as their young roster pulled off an incredible 13-point upset.
This time around, the bookies have set a slim line with Carlton posing a serious upset risk, but unfortunately, the Bombers’ 6-3 record on the back of a loss suggests otherwise.
Essendon are now without Joe Daniher, but there’s still a strong chance Dylan Shiel could return to the side this week. The Bombers aren’t scaring anyone on the stat sheet right now, but, neither are the Blues.
Carlton are currently the third-worst fourth quarter side in the competition, which means we could see a similar thriller to last week’s game against St. Kilda. Even so, Essendon’s midfield should see them over the line in a close battle.
Tip: Back the Bombers 1-39 @ $2.08
West Coast Eagles
Sunday June 2, 3:20pm, Optus Stadium
West Coast are quietly gaining momentum inside the eight after stringing together their fourth straight win.
The Crows posed a mighty test for the Eagles in Adelaide last week, but Adam Simpson’s brilliant three-quarter time adjustments saw the Eagles boot five goals in the final term to earn a much-needed 12-point victory.
The Dogs weren’t quite so lucky at home to a spirited North Melbourne. Luke Beveridge’s side stood a fighting chance at three-quarter time, only to surrender five goals themselves to lose by 25-points.
This mightn’t be the most thrilling end to Round 11, but that isn’t to say the Eagles can’t provide some value.
West Coast are 9-3 as the home favourite over the last 12 months, but perhaps more importantly, 6-1 as the home favourite against the Dogs.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs could also be in for a bit of a blowout if Jack Darling has things his own way. The dangerous West Coast forward has booted 12 goals across his last five games against the Dogs – bad news considering Beveridge’s side is currently allowing the fourth-highest goal average to opponents on the year.
Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-25.5 Points) @ $1.90
Dreamtime at the ‘G has become one of the highlights of the AFL calendar and it will be a packed house when Essendon take on Richmond at the MCG on Saturday night.
We may have to wait until Sunday afternoon for the best game of the weekend as Adelaide host the GWS Giants, while there are a host of other intriguing fixtures set to take place this weekend.
We have analysed all nine games and our complete 2018 AFL Round 11 tips can be found below.
Friday 1 June, 7:50pm, SCG
Swans 91-Blues 61
The prospect of bottom of the ladder Carlton playing the Sydney Swans on a Friday night at the SCG is enough to make you consider doing something else with your life that evening.
However, the Blues were very competitive against Geelong last weekend and Sydney was able to survive a challenge from the Brisbane Lions.
The Swans’ win was a thoroughly professional one in the wet at the Gabba last weekend.
Despite, Buddy Franklin being held to only one goal for the game the likes of Isaac Heeny, Ben Ronke and Will Hayward were able to get the job done for the Swans.
Josh Kennedy and George Hewett in the mid-field also proved valuable in the Swans 18 point win over Brisbane.
For Carlton, a gallant performance against Geelong at the Cattery last week was something to give Blues fans a bit of hope in what has otherwise been a very disappointing season.
At quarter time, the Blues trailed by 24 points and it looked like they were in for a long night.
However, senior leaders such as Kade Simpson, Patrick Cripps and Ed Curnow proved vital in the Blues gallant efforts against Geelong.
Carlton was able to get within eight points in the last quarter and the 28 point loss doesn’t reflect on their efforts and was a far superior effort to their 109 loss to the Dees the previous week.
Can Carlton cause an upset this Friday night? Unlikely, but they are going to give the Swans a run for their money.
So far in 2018, Sydney has lost three out of five at home and if Carlton’s backline can hold down Buddy the Swans will have their work cut out for them.
Back Sydney To Win By 1-39 @ $3.35
Saturday 2 June, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium
Dogs 51-Dees 100
Melbourne, that’s right, Melbourne return to their happy hunting ground – Etihad Stadium where they have won their past four matches and are coming off a streak of two wins in a row of over 90+ points for the first time since 1993.
It’s hard to believe that their opponent, the Western Bulldogs won the flag just under two years ago.
The Demons proved their credentials as a premiership contender last Sunday at Alice Springs with their thumping 91 point win over the Crows.
Melbourne kicked the first five goals of the game and despite some Eddie Betts magic to get the Crows first major, Adelaide never looked in it.
The Dees were quick to get the ball from the centre with Maxy Gawn, Sam Jacobs, Jack Viney, Nathan Jones, James Harmes and five goals from Jessie Hogan – it was the Dees finest performance in over a decade.
For the Doggies, they showed some promise early in their game against Collingwood last week.
It was very much a game of two halves for the Western Bulldogs.
At quarter time, the Dogs were up by 25 points and were looking impressive.
Then, come half-time the Pies overran them to win by 35 points and the Dogs scoring a lowly four behinds for the entire second half of the game.
Toby McLean was in good form with 33 disposals for the Dogs and Jack Macrae also was amongst their best.
With Melbourne in red-hot form and the Bulldogs not able to string four solid quarters together in a match, the Dees should continue on with their winning ways.
Melbourne To Cover The Line (-29.5 Points)
Saturday 2 June, 2:10pm, University Of Tasmania Stadium
Hawks 64-Port 61
Hawthorn takes on Port Adelaide in Launceston – a city, that unlike Shanghai, actually cares and knows about the game.
The Hawks were able to match it against the Eagles last Sunday at Eithad and didn’t make it easy for the ladder leaders but fell short against a side who are playing some of their most impressive football since when they were last at their peak in the mid 2000’s.
Hawthorn improved significantly from their loss to the Lions in the previous round, but some costly turnovers in the second half allowed the Eagles to run away with the win.
A feel-good story from the game was the return and goal in the first quarter of Jonathon Ceglar who played his first AFL games after two years on the sidelines with injury.
The Power, will come into the game fresh after a bye with their most recent win being their 40 point defeat of the Gold Coast Suns at their Shanghai fortress.
Sitting just outside the eight, Port isn’t hampered with injury and a favourable fixture with their big games being played at Adelaide Oval.
Will they be able to tear Hawthorn apart in Tassie?
The Hawks are a proud team and will make the most of their home ground advantage this Saturday.
Back Hawthorn to win @ $1.85
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 2 June, 4:35pm, Metricon Stadium
Suns 36-Cats 121
The Gold Coast have been everywhere, man, they’ve been everywhere.
They’ve played in Cairns, Melbourne, Brisbane, China, Perth, Ballarat and Adelaide and in Round 11 the Suns finally get a home game at Metricon Stadium now that the place has returned to football-mode post the Commonwealth Games.
The Suns are fresh off a bye after going down to Port Adelaide as part of their annual China junket and the Cats come off a 28 point win over a gallant Carlton at GMHBA Stadium.
The main story of this game is the prospect of the little master Gary Ablett returning to Metricon Stadium to play against his old team the Gold Coast Suns. (When has it never not been the main story in the history between these two sides?)
Despite football’s longest away trip in history, the Suns have remained largely competitive in all of their matches bar their games against West Coast and Melbourne.
Tom Lynch will return for the game against the Cats and will want to put in a good performance to up his much talked about future contract at the Suns or elsewhere.
The Cats proved too good for Carlton last week, but their 28 point win was hardly inspiring.
Ablett was able to rack up 25 touches and Tom Hawkins two late goals in the game made the Cats end lead flattering.
The season-ending injury to young gun forward Esava Ratugolea left a sour note for Cats fans in what was supposed to be a celebration of the little masters homecoming.
A good win on the road will do a world of good for Geelong’s 2018 campaign, and they should be too classy for a Gold Coast Suns side that has been gallant in a tough start to the season.
Back Geelong To Cover The Line (-26.5 Points)
Saturday 2 June, 7:25pm, MCG
Dons 43-Tigers 114
This edition of the annual “Dreamtime at the G” clash is arguably the biggest one in the 13 years this has been an event on the AFL fixture.
In the space of two weeks, Essendon have completely transformed their season and are playing the football people expected of them at the start of the year.
The Dons are coming off an impressive 35 point win over GWS in the smoky conditions at Spotless Stadium.
In what was a arm-wrestle between the two, the Bombers were able to fend off the Giants in what was a game many would have had GWS penciled in for a win under a fortnight ago.
Going into the final quarter, Essendon was up by just under a kick but old hands David Zaharakis and Dyson Heppell was able to break the game open with a six goals to one last quarter.
The reigning premiers, Richmond were able to fend off a gallant St.Kilda after losing Jack Riewoldt to concussion and Bachar Houli with a groin injury, leaving the Tigers with just two men on the bench going into the second half.
This left the Tigers to rely on the likes of Josh Caddy and Nick Vlaustin being moved up forward, kicking three important goals in the second half which ensured a Richmond victory, along with the strong on-field leadership of captain Trent Cotchin.
With the Bombers finding their feet again, the Tigers will need to find that extra gear if they are to continue their MCG winning streak, currently at 14 games.
Back Richmond To Cover The Line (-22.5 Points)
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 2 June, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium
Eagles 101-Saints 88
The top of the ladder Eagles return to their fortress at Optus Stadium in Perth to take on the struggling Saints.
West Coast were able to tighten their grip on the top spot with a 15 point win over Hawthorn.
Not only do the Eagles have a fortress in Perth, they are winning in Victoria on a regular basis, something that was considered their kryptonite in previous years.
Led by Andrew Gaff and Elliot Yeo the Eagles were able to hold off the Hawks who challenged all day along with three important goals from forward Josh Kennedy.
The Saints were spirited against reigning premiers Richmond last weekend at the MCG.
They made the Tigers pay for their skill errors and were even able to get out to an 11 point lead late in the third quarter.
St.Kilda was able to get more of the ball with 74 more disposals than the Tigers, eight more tackles and matched them with clearances but were outclassed in the end.
Jade Gresham, Seb Ross and Jack Steven were standouts for the Saints along with Jake Carlisle who is likely to miss the game with suspension after knocking Jack Riewoldt out early in the first quarter.
It will be hard to see the Saints being able to string another spirited performance like they did against the Tigers, and West Coast should expect to win this easily.
Sunday 3 June, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
North 141-Lions 87
The surprise packet of season 2018, North Melbourne takes on the spirted Brisbane Lions this Sunday in what should be a fascinating contest.
North Melbourne were able to overcome an inaccurate start to their game against Fremantle in what turned out to be an impressive 28 point win on the road.
Despite Coleman Medal leader Ben Brown having a quiet day, he was still able to kick two vital goals in the second half.
Defender Ben Jacobs was amongst North’s best after Nat Fyfe dominated in the first half and it turned out to be a memorable win for Ruckman Todd Goldstein’s 200th game.
For the Lions, they were able to chase the Sydney Swans for all of their game last week but couldn’t overcome them.
In yet another spirited performance, the Lions didn’t disgrace themselves but the Swans skill and class left them short again of causing a major upset.
Mitch Robinson and Dayne Beams were dominant for the Lions along with experience from Zorko and Christensen.
Number one draft pick Cam Rayner was also impressive for the Lions last week.
Brisbane have the capabilities of causing a major upset this season and it won’t be a walk in the park for the Roos.
Back Brisbane To Cover The Line (+27.5 Points)
Sunday 3 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Pies 138-Freo 77
The Magpies sitting in the top eight and coming into form return to the MCG to take on Freo this Sunday afternoon.
Trailing by 26 points early in the second quarter, the Pies struggled for the first half in their game against the Western Bulldogs last Friday night but with a four goal to zero third quarter and then another four in the final quarter saw them romp home with a 35 point win.
It was a Brodie Grundy production on Friday night with 26 possessions, 38 hit outs and seven clearances and was easily the Magpies best.
Adam Treloar was a ball magnet with 40 touches and two goals, Tom Phillips was also amongst the Pies best and the reliability of skipper Scott Pendelbury was important.
Had North Melbourne been able to kick straight, Freo would have been belted last round.
Instead, the first half was a tight contest between the two sides but Freo couldn’t catch up with the Roos in the second half.
Nat Fyfe was held by North’s Ben Jacobs after the first quarter and amongst Freo’s best was Michael Walters, David Mundy and Luke Ryan proving valuable.
With Collingwood in form and Freo tending to struggle outside of Perth, the Magpies should be too good for them this Sunday.
Back Collingwood To Win By 1-39 Points @ $2.10
Sunday 3 June, 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval
Crows 81-Giants 97
Round 11 of AFL finishes off in what could be the game of the round between two of the more disappointing teams of recent weeks, the Crows and the Giants.
It could not been more of a disappointing day for Adelaide in Alice Springs against the Dees.
Melbourne kicked the first five goals of the game and despite some Eddie Betts magic late in the first quarter, they never looked a chance.
The death stare of Crows coach Don Pyke in the three quarter time huddle was the only highlight for Adelaide.
The Giants, who were ravaged by injury were able to stay intouch with Essendon in their game last weekend but the spring in the step and pressure of the Bombers proved too good for them.
Stephen Conigilio was dominant for the Giants with 32 disposals along with the reliable hands of Heath Shaw in the backline and Callan Ward was also impressive with his 34 touches.
GWS looked like they had the momentum going for them early in the last quarter but the Dons had other ideas.
With both teams desperate to get their 2018 season back on track, you should expect it an extremely hard fought contest but you can’t go against the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
Back Adelaide To Cover The Line (-20.5 Points)
This is the first of the big bye rounds in the AFL, but there are still plenty of quality games set to take place this weekend.
There is now only one win separating fourth and 11th on the AFL ladder and every win is crucial as sides look to break into the top eight.
We had another big week of results in the AFL last weekend and our complete 2017 AFL round 11 tips can be found below.
Thursday 1 June, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 98 - Hawthorn 47
Hawthorn recorded an upset win over Sydney last week, but it is still Port Adelaide that will go into this clash as dominant favourites.
Port Adelaide were incredibly unlucky not to come away with the four points against Geelong last Friday night and there was still plenty to like about the performance.
Adelaide Oval has been far from a fortress for Port Adelaide and they have won only three of their past six games as home favourites for a clear loss.
Hawthorn made it three wins from their past four games with a fighting victory over Sydney and that was easily their best performance of the season to date.
I still believe that the Hawks are a better side than their current record suggests and they have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a big profit, while they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
There is nowhere near as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and Hawthorn are a great bet to beat the line with a monster start.
Back Hawthorn To Beat The Line (+31.5 Points)
Friday 2 June, 7:55pm, Simonds Stadium
Geelong 96 - Adelaide 74
This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend and there will obviously be plenty of attention on Patrick Dangerfield.
Geelong have the home ground advantage in this clash, but it is Adelaide that will start this game as clear favourites.
The Crows could hardly have been more impressive against Fremantle last weekend, but this is arguably their toughest test of the season to date.
Adelaide have won eight of their past ten games as away favourites for a profit and they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
A couple of contentious umpiring decisions helped Geelong beat Port Adelaide last weekend and the ten year premiership reunion was almost spoiled.
Geelong have won their past two games as home underdogs and they have also won their past four games against Adelaide.
The Cats would need to improve on their last start effort to win this fixture, but they do represent genuine value at their current price.
Back Geelong To Win @ $2.15
Gold Coast Suns
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 3 June, 1:45pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast Suns 80 - West Coast Eagles 77
Both these teams head into this game on the back of a pair of losses and it is the West Coast Eagles that will start as clear favourites.
West Coast were far from disgraced against Greater Western Sydney last weekend and they will fancy their chances against a Gold Coast Suns side that they have never lost to.
The problem for the Eagles has been winning away from home and they have won just four of their past eight games as home favourites, while they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.
Gold Coast started extremely strongly against Melbourne, but they fell in a hole badly and ended up suffering their fourth defeat in their past five matches.
The Suns have won only two of their past seven games as home underdogs and they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Both these teams are tough to trust from a betting standpoint and this is a game that I am more than willing to stay out of.
Saturday 3 June, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium
GWS Giants 117 - Essendon 101
Greater Western Sydney won another nail-biter last weekend and they go into this clash with Essendon as dominant favourites.
The Giants do seem to have another gear that they can go to when the pressure comes on and that has got them out of trouble in recent weeks, but they continue to be somewhat unreliable from a betting standpoint.
GWS have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites for a narrow loss and they are 5-6 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon were far from disgraced against Richmond last weekend and there has been plenty to like about the way that they have played in recent weeks.
Playing away from Melbourne has been an issue for the Bombers and they have lost their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 2-6 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I will be staying out from a betting perspective.
Saturday 3 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne 66 - Richmond 101
Richmond finally ended their losing streak last weekend and they will start this clash with North Melbourne as narrow favourites.
Richmond showed a fair amount of character to secure victory against Essendon last weekend and this is another game they really should win as they look to cement their position in the top eight.
The Tigers have won seven of their past eight games as favourites, but they are only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne threw away a big lead against Carlton last weekend, but they were able to fight back in the fourth quarter to come away with the victory.
The Kangaroos have won only two of their past 14 games as underdogs and they are only a middling 7-7 against the line when being given a start.
Richmond do have a genuine quality edge over North Melbourne and will get the job done if they play anywhere near their best.
Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
Sunday 4 June, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 85 - Collingwood 105
Fremantle were flogged by Adelaide last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.
The Dockers showed very little fight against a rampant Adelaide side and the margin could have been even better if the Crows had kicked straight.
If you ignore that performance, the recent form of Fremantle has been good and they have won their past three games as home favourites.
Collingwood made it two wins on the trot with a fairly comprehensive win over the Brisbane Lions and they have shown some positive signs over the past fortnight.
The Magpies have won three of their past eight games as away underdogs and they are a most impressive 7-1 against the line in this scenario.
A firing Collingwood side would have the edge over Fremantle and they do represent just a hint of value at their current quote of $2.10.
Back Collingwood To Win @ $2.10
Richmond fans will still be smarting from the fact that they were knocked out of the AFL Finals by North Melbourne last season and the two sides will meet in Friday night football in round 11.
Carlton and the Brisbane Lions fought out the wooden spoon last season and they are set to do battle this weekend in what has developed into a key game for both sides.
There are a number of exciting games on Sunday afternoon and there will be plenty of interest in the Collingwood, Port Adelaide clash as well as the meeting between the Western Bulldogs and the West Coast Eagles.
Friday 3 June, 7:50pm, Blundstone Arena
North Melbourne 124 - Richmond 54
This will be the first meeting between North Melbourne and Richmond since the Kangaroos upset the Tigers in the opening of the AFL Finals in 2015.
North Melbourne had their undefeated run ended by the Sydney Swans last weekend, but they will still go into this game at Blundstone Arena as clear favourites.
Blundstone Arena has been a happy hunting ground for North Melbourne and they have won eight of their past ten games at the venue, while beating the line in seven of these games.
Richmond go into this game on the back of three straight wins, but this is easily the toughest challenge that they have faced in the past month.
The Tigers remain a highly profitable betting play as away underdogs and they have won three out of their past four games in this scenario, while they have the exact same record against the line.
North Melbourne have won six of the past seven games played between these two sides, but there is no edge at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 4 June, 1:45pm, MCG
Hawthorn 82 - Melbourne 64
The Demons have not beaten the Hawks since 2006 and Hawthorn are clear favourites to continue their dominance over their rivals this weekend.
Hawthorn were not overly impressive against the Brisbane Lions last weekend, but they found another gear when it was required in the final quarter as they have done on a number of occasions this season.
The Hawks are 8-3 as home favourites in the past 12 months, but they are 3-8 against the line in this scenario and really haven’t been a strong betting team this season.
Melbourne received a reality check when they suffered a big defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide last weekend, but they have still been a profitable team so far this season.
The Demons have won four of their past eight games as away underdogs and they are an excellent 6-2 against the line.
I’m not sure that the Demons can end their losing streak against Hawthorn, but I am still keen to back them with a start of 29.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+29.5 Points)
Saturday 4 June, 2:10pm, Etihad Stadium
Carlton 102 - Brisbane Lions64
Carlton have lost their past three games against the Brisbane Lions, but they are clear favourites to continue their excellent form this weekend.
The Blues have won five out of their past six games and they showed just how much improvement they have made with an outstanding performance against Geelong last weekend.
Carlton have only started two games in the past 12 months as favourites, but they won both of them and beat the line comfortably in both.
The Lions were far from disgraced against Hawthorn last weekend, but they have saved the majority of their best form for The Gabba and they have lost their past 12 games as away underdogs.
Brisbane have covered the line just twice in these 12 games and if Carlton play as well as they did against Geelong, it is tough to see that changing.
Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (-25.5 Points)
Saturday 4 June, 4:35pm, Simonds Stadium
Geelong 98 - GWS Giants 88
This is arguably the match of the round and it is a crucial game for both sides that were beaten as favourites last weekend.
Geelong stamped themselves as premiership favourites when they beat both the West Coast Eagles and Adelaide, but they have since suffered shock losses to both Collingwood and Carlton.
They will still start this game as favourites and their record at Simonds Stadium needs to be respected as they are 6-2 as home favourites in head to head betting as well as 5-3 against the line.
Greater Western Sydney were another team that received a reality check last weekend and they face a tough assignment on the road against Geelong.
The Giants have struggled away from Spotless Stadium in the past 12 months and they have not won a game as away underdogs during this time period.
The Cats can bounce back this weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 8.5 points comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Back Geelong To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 4 June, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast Suns 41 - Sydney Swans 79
The Gold Coast Suns are yet to score their maiden win over the Sydney Swans and they have lost all six meetings against their rivals by sizable margins.
The Suns suffered another embarrassing loss against the West Coast Eagles last weekend and it is tough to see any other result happening on Saturday night.
Gold Coast have now lost seven games on the trot and they have won just one game as away underdogs in the past 12 months, while they are 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney were at their professional best against North Melbourne and there s little chance that they will not make it three wins on the trot this weekend.
The line is the only betting option that really makes sense in this game, but the Swans are 4-5 against the line as away favourites in the past 12 months and they are not a team that are particularly efficient at putting weaker opposition to the sword.
With the line set at 44.5 points, this is a fixture that I am more than happy to stay out of.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 4 June, 5:40pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle 126 - Essendon 47
Fremantle are yet to win a game this season and they may never have a better chance to break their duck in 2016.
The Dockers looked like they had found their old form for the first half of their clash with St Kilda last weekend, but they gave the game away very quickly in the second half.
Fremantle will still start this game as favourites, but they have been a losing betting team in just about every metric this season and they have beaten the line in just two of their past ten games as home favourites.
Essendon are another team that have struggled in 2016 and they are another team that it is very tough to trust from a betting perspective.
The Bombers have won just one of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is a very poor 4-8.
They have not been blown out by the likes of Richmond, St Kilda and North Melbourne in recent weeks, but their inability to score points is a huge issue and they have scored over 70 points just once in their past eight games.
The one betting market that really stands out in this fixture is the total points betting market.
The line has been set at 165.5 points, but the under has saluted in 67 percent of the games played by both these teams this season and it is one of the safest bets in this round of the AFL.
Recommended Bet: Back The Under (165.5 Points)
Sunday 5 June, 1:10pm, MCG
Collingwood 58 - Port Adelaide 125
Collingwood had their winning streak snapped by the Western Bulldogs last weekend and Port Adelaide beat Melbourne, but Collingwood will still start this game as favourites.
Poor kicking cost Collingwood against the Western Bulldogs, but their was still some positives to take from the performance.
What is not positive is their record as home favourites in the past 12 months – they have actually lost four of their past seven games in this scenario and they are 2-5 against the line.
Port Adelaide showed what they were capable of against Greater Western Sydney and they have actually been a profitable betting team as underdogs over the past 12 months.
They have won two of their past five games in this scenario and they are the best value bet of the weekend at their current price of $2.05.
Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.05
West Coast Eagles
Sunday 5 June, 3:20pm, Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs 83 - West Coast Eagles 75
This is another interesting game on a weekend that is packed full of them.
The Western Bulldogs returned to winning form against Collingwood last weekend and they will go into this game as clear favourites to make it two wins on the trot.
Favoritism has been a position in which the Bulldogs have thrived in the past 12 months and they have won 14 of their past 16 games as the punter’s elect, while they are 7-2 against the line in this scenario.
The West Coast Eagles scored a massive win over the Gold Coast Suns, but they face a much tougher test against the Bulldogs.
West Coast have made a slight profit in their past four games as away underdogs and their record against the line is the same, but they don’t have the best record at Etihad Stadium.
The Etihad Stadium factor should be enough to get the Western Bulldogs home in what I expect to be a very tight game.
Recommended Bet: Back The Western Bulldogs To Win @ $1.77
Sunday 5 June, 4:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Crows 133 - St Kilda 45
The Adelaide Crows have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but they were impressive against Greater Western Sydney last weekend and they will go into this game as clear favourites.
Adelaide have an excellent record in front of their home fans and they have won eight of their past ten games at the Adelaide Oval, but they are only 2-2 against the line as home favourites.
St Kilda made a slow start against Fremantle last weekend, but they were able to get the job done in the second half to record back-to-back wins for the first time in 12 months.
Whether St Kilda can string together three straight wins is a big question and the answer is probably no – they have won just three of their past nine games as underdogs and they are 4-5 against the line as away underdogs.
Adelaide should be able to record a comfortable win, but the market has got there price just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet