The Easter long weekend is serving up a mixed bag — a couple of genuine blockbusters, a few spicy value plays, and some games that look awful.
In any case, let’s dive into them and find some plays we like.
The reigning premiers will be looking to back-up their first win of the season when they host Collingwood at the Gabba on Thursday night.
The Lions, who sit 13th on the ladder with a 1-2 record, proved too strong for the Saints on the back of a seven-goal final term and the market has certainly followed them in at $1.38.
Collingwood jumped out of their bye round with a strong 33-point victory over the Giants, with Nick Daicos going one step closer to a maiden Brownlow Medal with 36 disposals and two goals.
The underdog has won each of the last five matches between Brisbane and Collingwood, but we’re expecting that stat to unravel with Darcy Moore and Scott Pendlebury sidelined for the Pies.
Fresh meat might be on the menu for North Melbourne this Good Friday as they prepare to face an embattled Carlton team and a senior coach fighting for his position.
The Roos are $2.30 outsiders with Ladbrokes, but that could prove a cheeky bit of value as they chase their first 3-1 start to a season since 2016.
They’ll need to do so without arguably their most important player Tristan Xerri (suspended) and makeshift ruck man Callum Coleman-Jones taking the reins.
There’s never been more pressure on Carlton and Vossy after they gave up a 43-point lead in last week’s loss to Melbourne.
The Blues will have Adam Cerra (hamstring) and Zac Williams (ribs) available, but the most expectation will fall on Marc Pittonet who should give his midfielders first use all night.
While the first Good Friday game could struggle for genuine interest, the second at the Adelaide Oval is arguably the match of the round.
The Adelaide Crows will enter their Round 4 clash as $1.77 favourites against Fremantle, despite the latter’s two consecutive wins against the Demons and Tigers.
The Crows gave up another close loss (8 points) to Geelong in wintry conditions at the Cattery last Thursday but should welcome back the likes of Jordan Dawson and Tex Walker. They’re considering recalling Reilly O’Brien to help combat the Darcy/Jackson ruck combo.
Fremantle haven’t beaten a side of any note yet this season, but Caleb Serong (32 vs Richmond) and Luke Jackson’s incredible form gives them every chance this week.
In each of Adelaide’s last 13 Friday matches, its opponent has been the first to five goals so expect a fast start from the Dockers.
After giving up a 29-point lead and losing to West Coast, there’s little doubt Port Adelaide will be licking their lips at the chance of facing Richmond at the MCG on Saturday.
With a five-game winning streak against the Tigers, Josh Carr’s men will need to bounce back without Esava Ratugolea (ankle) but a potential return of Miles Bergman.
The Tigers were impressive for one half against the Dockers and trailed by just six points at HT, before the Purple Haze nailed eight goals to one in a dominant second half.
No tricks here, Mitch Georgiades should have every chance to kick the Power back into the winner’s stall.w
Another one-sided game for your Easter Weekend (hint, it’s not the last) as the Sydney Swans look to notch their third win of the season when they travel to Optus Stadium.
The Swans have had the bye round to think about their Round 2 final quarter fade-out against Hawthorn and will be buoyed by the fact they’ve won the last five games between these two sides by an average of 83.8 points.
The Eagles are certainly revitalized after securing an incredible two-point win over Port Adelaide, with the form of Harley Reid and Willem Duursma giving fans something to get excited about.
While they are chasing a third-straight win, we’re not predicting it’s happening this week.
The Gold Coast Suns will be searching for a fourth-consecutive victory to start their 2026 season when they take on Melbourne at the MCG on Sunday.
Fresh off the break, the Suns will still be without Christian Petracca (hamstring) and Bailey Humphrey (suspension) but could potentially welcome back Brownlow Medallist Matt Rowell who is pushing to return from a broken finger.
Melbourne (and Kozzie Pickett) put on a masterclass to defeat the Blues by 23 points in Max Gawn’s 250th game, but you can’t expect a second-half slump against the might of the Suns.
What did we say about one-sided games?
The only team travelling worse than Carlton right now is Essendon and they’re coming up against the undefeated and refreshed Bulldogs on Sunday night.
$21 in the head-to-head market says it all for the Bombers after they slumped to a two-goals loss against the Kangaroos and lost Nate Caddy to concussion.
The Bulldogs should have no issues in this one and could even break scoring records against a Bombers side lacking any skill, structure or resilience.e
Nothing says Easter like a Monday blockbuster between these two great rivals – and boy we need it after some of the other fixtured games this weekend.
Hawthorn are the favourites ahead of this one at $1.57, with the week’s break and confirmation Mabior Chol and Mitch Lewis will be right to lace up.
Geelong managed to hold on in awful conditions at home, with Bailey Smith relishing the rain and accumulating 40 touches and 10 tackles.
Patrick Dangerfield won’t return for Easter Monday, but there’s no doubt this’ll be a close one in any case.like.
2024
For the second year in a row, all the action heads over to the City of Churches, as Gather Round brings all football fans together for a weekend of chaos, thrills, and exciting moments.
A round of AFL couldn’t get much bigger than a Thursday night blockbuster clash between Collingwood and Carlton.
And boy oh boy, does Carlton need to win!?
The two rivals kick-off a mouthwatering Round 4 of footy and we’ve dived into every game and come up with our best bets.
The age ol’ rivalry between two of the AFL’s biggest clubs will add another chapter to its storied history when Collingwood hosts Carlton in a Thursday night blockbuster at the ‘G.
The Pies, who enter the game as $1.48 favourites with Ladbrokes, will be relatively fresh coming off their Round 3 bye as they look to make it three wins on the trot following victories over Port (91) and the Dogs (6).
Dan Houston trained appropriately for a clash like this and will play through a broken nose, while Brody Mihocek and Billy Frampton will return in place of Mason Cox and Reef McInnes.
As for the 0-3 Carlton, the pressure gauge is at an all-time high for Michael Voss and their players and they desperately try to get off the mark in 2025.
Harry McKay will miss again with personal issues, so it will be up to Charlie Curnow to improve on the three he slotted against the Dogs.
Tip: Carlton (+13.5) To Cover The Line @ $1.90
The Blues might be the only cohort in the AFL who are thankful for the Dees, having had a hell of a lot of the media scrutiny redirected from them to the 2021 premiers.
It’s safe to say the season is already over for Simon Goodwin’s men after they suffered a third-straight loss when going down to the Suns by 58 points at the ‘G.
It was the Dees’ seventh consecutive loss in Victoria, with Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Bayley Fritsch among their premiership stars struggling to find form.
It should be a relatively straightforward return to the winner’s circle for the Cats, who gave up a 26-point half-time lead against the Lions on Saturday night.
Tom Stewart (knee) should return after being a late withdrawal, but they should still have the firepower and discipline to salute here nonetheless.
Tip: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) To Kick 3+ Goals @ $2.10
Who would’ve thought a Round 4 clash between the Gold Coast Suns and Adelaide Crows would be the match of the weekend?
Yeah, us either.
The most even match-up in the head-to-head markets ($1.73 vs $2.10), one side will be leaving People First Stadium with its first loss of the year.
We can’t help but think it will be won and lost in the midfield, where an in-form Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Sam Flanders will do battle with an equally dominant Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine and Jake Soligo.
The Suns will play at home for the first time this season and look to emulate the 7-2 form they showed there last year.
It certainly shouldn’t be a blowout, so we’re happy with the $2.35 on offer for the Suns 1-39.
Tip: Suns To Win 1-39 @ $2.35
In the infamous words of Lloyd Christmas, ‘so you’re telling me there’s a chance?’
From the most even match-up of Round 4 to potentially the most one-sided, the reigning premiers will fly to the MCG for a date with the embattled Tigers on Saturday afternoon.
The Lions sit comfortably in third position on the ladder, adding a hard-fought come-from-behind win over Geelong (9) to their scalps of West Coast (19) and Sydney (4).
Chris Fagan’s men aren’t dominating games by any means, but they’re banking early season victories and doing it with Lachie Neale averaging just 21.7 disposals – his lowest since his second season with Fremantle in 2013.
The Tigers will be looking for a more complete performance when they take to the ‘G, having given up 14 goals to two in the second half against the Saints.
Rhyan Mansell failed to overturn his three-match suspension at the tribunal, opening the door for the likes of Hugo Ralphsmith or Sam Banks to return.
Tip: Brisbane To Kick Over 16.5 Goals @ $2.15
If you told us during the pre-season that the Kangaroos would be as short as $2.50 for their Round 4 game against Sydney, we’d have laughed you out of the room.
Alas, the Shinboners have showcased a renewed vigour in 2025 with a comprehensive win over Adelaide sandwiched by two tough losses to the Dogs and Crows.
Griffin Logue (hamstring) should make his return to the Roos’ defensive 50 this weekend, as they attempt to snap a run of eight consecutive losses to the Swans.
Having started the year with just one win from their three games, the Swans will come into this one fresh from a Round 3 bye.
Despite the week’s rest, the Swans’ injury list continues to grow with Tom Papley (foot) joining Callum Mills, Taylor Dams, Robbie Fox, and Errol Gulden.
It’d take a brave punter to dive into the head-to-head markets, with both sides showcasing varied levels of discipline and commitment so far in 2025.
Tip: Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) 25+ Disposals @ $2.15
Much in the same mould as the Tigers and Lions clash, the Giants will have no shortage of backers when they host the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
The Giants, who sit in fifth spot on the ladder, suffered their first loss of the year to the Hawks and will be hungry to return to the top four against arguably the worst team in the AFL.
Tom Green returned to the field with 33 disposals and looks set for another prosperous year after missing the first two games with a calf strain.
If things couldn’t get any worse for the 0-3 Eagles, they will be without star defender Jeremy McGovern due to a groin injury.
While the showed glimpses of talent when they pushed Brisbane to 19 points two weeks ago, the murmurings surrounding captain Oscar Allen and Harley Reid’s futures at the club can only serve as a distraction for an inexperienced side.
Tip: GWS Giants (-55.5) To Cover The Line @ $1.90
Can Port Adelaide arrest their poor start to the year and get Ken’s last potential finals campaign back on track?
If ever there’s a time, it’s against a side they hold a 14-1 recent record against.
The Power were disappointing again last weekend and handed Essendon its first win of the season.
Zak Butters is among those who will be tested this week, with the dual All-Australian desperately needed alongside Connor Rozee, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis in the Power’s underperforming midfield.
The Saints will enter the clash with their chests out and shoulders back following their 83-point trouncing of the Tigers, which included 14 of the last 16 goals of the game.
Jack Sinclair (40 disposals) and Jack Macrae (31) have the ball on a string at present and will undoubtedly cause headaches for the Power midfield that tends to run forward more than it does back.
Tip: Total Points Under 167.5 @ $1. 88
Another intriguing match-up pits Fremantle against the in-form Western Bulldogs at Subiaco Oval.
A Derby against the Eagles came at the right time for the Dockers, who were previously winless and watching their season slip away within the first couple of rounds.
Caleb Serong (35), Andrew Brayshaw (29) and Luke Jackson (17 and 35 hit-outs) dominated through the midfield, and will now go head-to-head with a Bulldogs engine room in similar form.
The Dogs have been the surprise packet so far this season with two wins while missing Marcus Bontempelli, Cody Weightman and Adam Treloar.
While Fremantle has lost four of its past five games as favourite, they showed enough last week to make the $1.60 about them look very attractive.
Tip: Fremantle To Win @$1.60
The action starts on Thursday night as the Crows face a whole heap of pressure opening Gather Round with the prospect of a 0-4 start, whilst their hometown rivals Port Adelaide get their turn on Friday night to bounce back against the Bombers.
The Adelaide Hills will see two games this year, as Brisbane and North Melbourne (unbelievably) search for their first win, along with the expansion derby between GWS and Gold Coast.
Norwood Oval will be packed out when the Swans and Eagles meet on the Saturday and Saints and Tigers meet on Sunday.
The Ginnivan Cup closes out Gather Round at Adelaide Oval between Hawthorn and Collingwood, along with a whole lot more excitement as we’ve dissected every game ahead of Gather Round and offer our best plays below!
The Dees are flying high once again, three on the trot and they come into this game already defeating the other half of Adelaide at their oval.
The Crows believed that it would just happen in 2024, and with no real off-season indication as to why, they now sit 0-3, facing the same issues as last year.
Last year the Crows had their statement win in Gather Round, convincingly knocking off the Blues by ten goals in a game that set up their season.
The difference this year, they face a Melbourne team that has no problem winning in Adelaide, as well as a forward line that has been deadly accurate across the past few weeks.
The synergy within the Crows forward line hasn’t reached the heights of 2023 as of yet, with 77 points their highest score so far, along with a mere 34 points last week.
The Crows have a strong stoppage game and don’t struggle to extract the ball from the contest, but it’s their lack of drive and direction inside 50 that breaks down their flow.
Under pressure, the Crows will crack, and against a Dees side that thrives on contested, hard football, this should be their night.
The Crows must win this or their season is pretty much as good as gone with the Blues in Melbourne to follow.
Tip: Melbourne to win by 1-39 @ $2.25
As I mentioned in the intro, this is unbelievably a game that has two winless teams moving into their fourth game of the year.
Arguably two different ends of the spectrum when it comes to where both sit, but it’s becoming damaging for the Lions and simply discouraging for the Roos yet again.
The Lions were unable to defend their home turf for the second game in a row, and whilst they show moments of why they were so good, the intensity isn’t there across four quarters like it was.
The Roos are still a long way away from being properly competitive again, although they have young foundations that are evident, it’s just a matter of time.
These two sides meet at Gather Round yet again, and it was the Lions who hammered home 152 points at the Adelaide Hills that got the job done convincingly.
If Carlton’s 137 points last week is anything to go by, a similar result may occur, although this time at Norwood Oval, which could throw off either side tactically with the narrow wings, forcing a lot of corridor movement.
North has some advantage here, they’re able to exploit the middle with some pace and at the very least force some inside 50 entries.
If Daniher and Hipwood struggle to take a mark like last week, there’s every chance this game becomes a scrap.
Both winless, both lacking confidence, the Lions should get it done, but this is the definition of a free hit for the Roos, so anything could happen.
Tip: Lions Total Goals Over 15.5 @ $1.98
The Power is facing some pretty nasty statistics with their Adelaide Oval record in night-time games, under 50% for wins against top eight sides.
They were unable to capitalise against the Dees, but still found themselves capable of matching it with the best.
The Bombers had some good fortune last week, as they were able to sneak up on St Kilda’s inaccuracy and pinch the win on the back of a great last quarter.
Essendon’s skill under pressure is what still separates them from the top-tier sides, a lot of turnovers and skill errors as seen against Sydney, get punished.
They’ve proven early that they can convert when it matters, but for all the ball they get, they don’t often get it inside 50, a heavy handball game that highlights their inefficiency by foot at times.
The Power on the other hand can get it inside 50, and with a 58.1% inside 50 efficiency, they probably would be 3-0 if the Dees didn’t miss last weekend.
St Kilda’s smalls were on the move inside 50 and this is where Port Adelaide need to exploit the Bombers and take some reliance off Dixon, who will be matched aerially by McKay and Laverde.
The Bombers need to rely on quick transition and challenge Port Adelaide’s defensive accountability with the high line they often push up in transition.
The Bombers can’t rely on the opposition’s inability to convert this week, and if there’s no scoreboard pressure on the Power, this game will be over quickly.
Tip: Port Adelaide to cover the line (-20.5) @ $1.90
The Swans had their first showing of deficiencies against the Tigers, who may have opened a few wounds last year on their defensive transition they probably thought they had closed.
The Eagles continued to dish up some of the most uninspiring football of the decade so far.
The first game that takes to the Adelaide Hills of the weekend, may have the writing of Sydney’s 171-point drumming of the Eagles last year, written all over it again.
The Swans will look to take it through the corridor at every opportunity and with the litter of forward options they have to choose from inside 50, it’s just a matter of lowering their eyes and it will just come naturally.
There are no real positives for the Eagles heading into this one, but limiting the damage of last year’s thrashing is probably some form of motivation.
Tip: Logan McDonald to kick 3+ goals @ $2.20
The Dockers and Blues probably didn’t envision themselves undefeated heading into this one, but it’s shaped up to be a fascinating watch.
The Dockers took care of a woeful Adelaide outfit last week in scrappy fashion, whilst the Blues flexed their tall forward weapons against the Roos.
The fix for the Dockers this year has been their ability to adapt under pressure. This year they’ve faced deficits of 25 points and 31 points and still found themselves winning games by over 20 points.
The Blues came back from 46 points down against the Lions and haven’t seemed off since that point, apart from their tussle against Richmond who proved they can beat top sides.
The Dockers love to get their hands on the footy and move it by hand, which gets them territory effective in finding an inside 50 option.
Both teams sit in the top four for disposal efficiency and tackling which feeds into why this contest is set up to be a hard-fought battle in the midfield to assert transitional dominance.
The Blues sit third for inside 50 entries, whilst the Dockers sit 16th, which does dial down the winner to the most effective defensive structure.
Curnow and McKay will see a heap of footy, which asks the question of Alex Pearce and Luke Ryan to play that shutdown role.
If Weitering and Marchbank can take down Amiss and Taberener, there’s a lot of reliance on the Dockers smalls to kick a winning score.
It’s the perfect opportunity for the Blues to get their first win at Adelaide Oval.
Tip: Carlton to win by 1-39 @ $2.20
The Doggies face their second test of the year, where they’re either going to be deemed contenders or pretenders against a Geelong side who don’t seem too keen to be taken lightly.
The Cats flexed their muscles when it mattered against the Hawks on Easter Monday, coming home with a 36-point win in Tom Hawkins 350th match.
Statistically, both sides are exactly even in their clearances, centre clearances, and stoppage clearances, which is extremely rare to find two teams with such similar numbers down to the decimal point.
The Dogs centre stoppage work was boosted by the return of Jack Macrae from VFL duties, as the Dogs finally see Treloar, Bontempelli, and Macrae back in the same midfield mix.
The Dogs spark run out of their defensive 50 but often lack an element of class against the top sides through the middle of the park.
Geelong’s pressure has been elite to start the year, sitting first in the competition for tackles, their relentless energy to create a stoppage or contest in defensive transition has put them in winnable positions even under duress.
The Dogs have found a lot of spark from their small forwards in Weightman and Gallagher, but in a game like this one, really need the likes of Ugle-Hagan and Aaron Naughton to step up.
The Cats energy has been rolling on, and the Bulldogs are not reliable in these big contests.
They could prove everyone wrong, but if their game against Melbourne was anything to go by, the Cats should expose the Dogs’ inconsistency.
Tip: Geelong to win by 1-39 @ $2.45
Both teams are fresh off a one-week break, with this contest setting up as an early indication of how serious this Gold Coast side is under Damien Hardwick.
They showed against the Dogs their on-the-road form hasn’t changed, but in neutral territory where neither fan base is likely to travel to, it sets up as a good opportunity to right some wrongs.
The Giants look unstoppable across all thirds of the ground. They’re fast, skilful, efficient, and don’t give you any room for error.
The Suns match the Giants around the ground, with a strong midfield group, a defensive line that is good transitionally, and a mix of talls and smalls inside forward 50.
There’s still a level in class between the two sides, as the Suns lack a bit of conviction in their transition out of defensive 50 and often get caught on the turnover with fast and flashy ball movement.
The Suns’ stoppage work is third best in the competition and it will come up against a Giants midfield who have struggled in that area.
First hands on the ball from the stoppage is key for the Suns, and if they’re able to slow down the Giants ball movement they’ll create contests deep inside 50 and stop their efficiency from finding a leading target.
The Giants as they have done over the last 12 years continue to show the Suns how it’s done, and they should do the same again with the class they possess.
Tip: Giants to win by 25+ @ $2.25
This contest has all of a sudden become a little more cloudier than expected, with the Tigers proving to the AFL world they’re not easy beats by any stretch.
The Saints will be coming out fiery, disappointed with their loss against Essendon where they were the better team, let down by the goal-kicking inaccuracy.
The Tigers couldn’t seem to put it together in the first few weeks but we saw a four-quarter performance of flashiness in transition that kept calling out Sydney’s defensive accountability.
The Tigers still have a lot of reliance on that game working for them, which is a high-risk, high reward, which we’ve seen has let them down with their poor disposal efficiency, sitting second last in the league.
The Saints have a few fixes themselves, but most came down to self-errors on the weekend, along with some transitional deficiencies at times, struggling to find a Plan B when the corridor was taken away from them.
The Saints will be helped by the return of Max King, who returns from suspension, and the Tigers could see back veteran class in Dustin Martin and Dylan Grimes.
Both sets of small forwards have stood up when the talls haven’t seen a lot of action, and it will yet again play a major role.
With the narrow ground at Norwood, a lot of corridor movement should suit both sides, but if the Tigers continue to be inefficient with their disposal, there’s not enough margin for error in this one.
The Saints should bounce back, but not without a fight from the Tigers.
Tip: St Kilda to win/Under 164.5 points @ $2.55
Most Pies fans would’ve been hoping to see Jack Ginnivan take on the black and white at the MCG, but he’ll suit up against the side he won a premiership for six months ago at Adelaide Oval.
The Pies took four weeks, but they’ve got a win to their tally, taking down the Lions at the Gabba which was against the odds.
Hard to say the Pies are back, and a win against the Hawks doesn’t tell us a lot more either, but they’re certainly back around the top eight with a win, which is all that matters in football.
The Hawks were outclassed by the Cats, and whilst they showed some fight, bringing the margin back to four points, their lapses of concentration and defensive accountability are still below par.
Besides form lines, this is a fixture that Collingwood supporters will be pretty pessimistic heading into.
The Hawks have had the wood over the Pies for a considerable amount of time now, upsetting the Pies last year at the G, as in the last ten games, the Hawks have won seven.
The Hawks saw good productivity up forward from Mabior Chol, who was able to kick three goals, but there was still a lack of forward impact for the Hawks throughout periods against the Cats.
The Pies should be able to exploit the Hawks offensively with their dash and dare through the middle, however, if their disposal efficiency continues to be on the poorer side of the scale, the Hawks will be in with every chance here.
The Pies capped off 2023 Gather Round with a six-point win over the Saints, and this game gives the feel of something similar.
Tip: Collingwood to win by 1-39 @ $2.05