The quality that was on display at Caulfield last weekend for P.B. Lawrence Stakes Day is missing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, but there are still a number of very intriguing races.
The McKenzie Stakes is the highlight of the meeting and a number of new three-year-olds will have the chance to stamp themselves as contenders for races like the Coolmore Stud Stakes or the Caulfield Guineas.
We have closely analysed all nine races that are set to take place at Moonee Valley this weekend to come up with our best early selections across the card.
Race 1 – 12:20pm Quest Moonee Valley Plate (1200m)
There are a number of very lightly-raced three-year-olds in this field and it is fairly tough to stack up the form. Strykum won the Queen Adelaide Stakes before she failed to fire in the National Stakes during the Adelaide Autumn Racing Carnival and that form looks fairly strong compared to what these other fillies have produced. Sebring Sally won in good style first-up at Geelong and she has the advantage of Damien Oliver in the saddle. Grey Street ran a fairly smart time on debut at Seymour and would not surprise, while Alderney is set to make her racing debut in the race and has been included in the Thousand Guineas nominations.
Race 2 – 12:55pm Simpson Construction Handicap (1600m)
Strong Hand is a very progressive four-year-old and looks like the horse to beat in what is a fairly weak race. He has worked through the grades in impressive fashion on the provincial circuit and trainer Darren Weir looks to have found a perfect race for him to score a maiden metropolitan win. Firehouse Rock failed to fire first-up at Flemington on August 8, but he was placed in the Autumn Stakes and Autumn Classic in the autumn, which is good enough form to win this race. Leveraction, So Does He and Gerontius all have claims.
Race 3 – 1:30pm SAJ Fruit Supply Handicap (2040m)
This is a very tricky race to analyse as there are a number of inconsistent gallopers in this race. Shenzhou Steeds came out of nowhere to win at Flemington last start, but that was his first race win for a number of years and it is tough to see him replicating that effort. Prizum may be a nine-year-old, but he is still racing in good style although he is not a noted winner. Try Four looked like a stayer on the rise before he was beaten at Morphettville last start, but I am happy to give him another chance. However, Albonetti could prove to be the one to beat as she finally gets up to her right trip and her two lead-up runs have been very solid.
Race 4 – 2:05pm Dr Sheahan Plate (1200m)
Tawteen is the class horse in this field and would tail this lot up at her best, but she was a big drifter first-up over this track and trip before she tired late to finish third. I would want to see some market support before I backed her again. Forgeress has won two on the trot in good style and is clearly racing in career best form, but this is another level up and she may not have the class. Catch That Cat went to another level last preparation and has an outstanding first-up record, so she can’t be discounted. Written Dash was outclassed in the Bletchingly, but this is a much more appropriate grade. Pilly’s Wish may be towards the end of her prep, but could go close at her best.
Race 5 – 2:40pm Hill Handicap (1200m)
The most interesting runner is this race is Team Hawkes-trained Sardaaj, who is set to make her Australian racing debut after being scratched from the Regal Roller Stakes last week. She has Group 1 form in New Zealand and Team Hawkes seem fairly happy with her ahead of the 2015 Spring Racing Carnival. Outside of Sardaaj, the form around Valiant Warrior is the strongest and Mighty Like could prove tough to beat based on that. He has an excellent first-up record and he doesn’t get into this race too bad in the weights with Michael Dee’s claim. Churchill Dancer also performed well first-up and he will go close if he can take another step forward.
Race 6 – 3:20pm Listed McKenzie Stakes (1200m)
This is the race that produced Caulfield Guineas runner-up Rich Enuff 12 months ago at big odds, so you never know what could come out and win this. Odyssey Moon obviously has the best exposed form in this field after finishing second behind Pride Of Dubai in the Sires Produce Stakes in the autumn and he handled Moonee Valley without any issues in track work. Manhattan Blues was also competitive at the highest level as a two-year-old, but I did not love his trial and I would like to see some market support. El Greco has a fitness edge over the majority of his rivals and the fact that Moody has kept him in work indicates that he thinks he is up to this. Gold Busker bring a completely different form line into this race, but you can’t knock anything that he has done during his career to date and it would not surprise if he went close in this.
Race 7 – 4:00pm 1PRINT Carlyon Stakes (1000m)
This is always a very interesting betting race and I expect a blanket finish. Gregers is the early standout and she gets into this race extremely well at the weights with just 57 kilograms on her back. She normally goes very well first-up and she has a good record at Moonee Valley. Le Bonsir produced his usual honest effort in the Aurie’s Star Handicap and he does go well at Moonee Valley, but he has developed into a bit of a non-winner. Éclair Choice trialed in outstanding fashion at Morphettville on August 7 and she took out the Redelva Stakes in the autumn. Our Nkwazi has a fitness edge over the majority of his rivals and he loves Moonee Valley, so he can’t be discounted. Sweet Emily was very poor first-up, but short course sprints at the Valley are her go and she could prove tough to catch if she is at her best.
Race 8 – 4:40pm Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap (1500m)
This is one of the toughest betting races on this card and there are a number of interesting runners in this field. Almoonqith has joined the Lindsay Park team after he took out the Nad Al Sheba Trophy and finished sixth in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year and that form is very strong, but this is well short of his best. Foundry and The United States both resume for Team Williams, but you can’t expect them to do much first-up. Kenjorwood produced a very big effort at Royal Randwick in the Shoot Out Mile and that performance would likely be enough to win this race on Saturday.
Race 9 – 5:15pm Adapt Australia Handicap (1800m)
These staying races in Melbourne are a deadset lottery and this is a very tough way to get home for punters. Crafty Cruiser showed that he is capable of winning away from Flemington with this win at the Valley last start, but he does not win out of turn and it is tough to see him making it two wins on the trot. The problem is that it is very difficult to find another horse in this field to beat him with any confidence and if you are a winner at this point of the day I would be giving this race a wide berth. Kareeming would be my gun to the head selection because of his previous win at Moonee Valley, but it could be tough from barrier 13.