THE BRIEF
Round one produced a couple of surprises but generally speaking it all went relatively to script. As you now expect in AFL circles, there has been a seemingly major overreaction to the opening week of football; although we’ll only know if it is an overreaction if round two plays out against what we expect. I speak largely of the Hawks now being outsiders against the Eagles, but first things first.
THE BIG FIVE
- $20k on Bulldogs (v St Kilda) @ $1.26
- $10k on Collingwood (v Richmond) @ $2.30
- $10k on Geelong (v GWS Giants) @ $1.42
- $9k on Richmond (v Collingwood) @ $1.67
- $5k on Melbourne (v Essendon) @ $1.15
FIRST BOUNCE
It’s been a fairly solid betting match all the way through – largely you would imagine with supporters of each side looking at the match through one eye and investing with their hearts. We’ve seen good money for Collingwood as an outsider despite being belted by the Swans last week and heading in here against the Tigers without Dane Swan (as they’ll be all season) and Steele Sidebottom, who was rubbed out for a fortnight.
Richmond has some key outs of its own and was reasonably lucky to escape with the win against Carlton in the season opener. Personally I’ll be reserving judgment on these teams for a couple of weeks but the late support has undoubtedly been with Collingwood.
CROW CALL
One way traffic in the showdown with Adelaide sensationally backed to beat its arch rival. At the time of writing this, the Crows had made their way in from a $2.40 outsider with a line of +9.5 to be $1.92 and share the price with Port which means obviously no line to speak of. It is, in the punters eyes, a genuine toss of the coin.
EAGLES TO TAKE FLIGHT IN GRAND FINAL RE-MATCH
Hawthorn dropped another great game against the Cats and in the process lost Luke Hodge for 4 to 6 weeks. They also lost premiership favouritism and are outsiders for the rematch against the Eagles, who were dominant against the Lions and have been absolutely smashed in betting this week.
The market which went up Monday had the two sides sharing the $1.90 price and that’s when the punters swooped in on the Eagles.
They’re into $1.73 with the triple reigning premiers on the drift out to $2.15 with a line of 5.5 points.
It is worth noting, the last time the Hawks were outsiders on the MCG was the 2014 Grand Final against the Swans and we can all remember what happened that day. Or, if you can’t, the Hawks smacked them.
DOGS BARKING
The Western Bulldogs were emphatic in their thrashing of last year’s minor premiers, Fremantle, in the opening round and look the goods against the still developing Saints.
Only issue is, it is also the 300th game of skipper and club legend Nick Riewoldt, and sometimes a major milestone can upset the applecart.
It hasn’t deterred most punters though with the Bulldogs among the best backed of the round including one bet of $20k at $1.26.
BEST OF THE REST
We have surprisingly seen some specking for the Gold Coast at a big price against the Dockers. Surely, the purple haze won’t drop this at home?
Brisbane Lions have also had a little bit of support at the line against North Melbourne, which has shifted from 26.5 to 23.5