THE BRIEF
Another week, another North Melbourne win, Hawthorn lucky escape and Carlton loss; there is no doubting this season is become one of reliable consistency.
Looking at round 5, North should win and Carton should register another loss while the Hawks have another challenger of which to slay.
THE BIG FIVE
- $7k on Sydney -3.5 line (v West Coast) @ $1.92
- $6k on Sydney (v West Coast) @ $1.75
- $6k on Adelaide +48.5 line (v Hawthorn) @ $1.22 (pick your own line)
- $5k on Total match point +196.5 (Hawthorn v Adelaide) @ $1.88
- $4k on Adelaide +20.5 line (v Hawthorn) @ $1.92
FIRST BOUNCE
A three point victory over the Bulldogs one week, a three point victory over the Saints the next. Will it be three consecutive three point victories for the three time reigning premiers? Probably not. I don’t even know the odds on that.
It is a fair assessment the Crows are the second best side in the competition behind North Melbourne at the moment and we are sure to get a better gauge on just how good they are this evening when they play the competition benchmark.
There has been a whole lot of love for Adelaide this week with more money wagered on the Crows around the $3 mark, than the Hawks who are at less than half that quote.
It at the line though were Adelaide has attracted the most interest including one bet of $4k on the Crows to get within 21 points.
Money late in the piece has been for Hawthorn in the head to head market.
NEW INTEREST IN OLD RIVALS
A decade ago, Sydney versus West Coast was the greatest modern rivalry in the game. They played in consecutive grands finals, both decided by under a goal, and for years even their home and away matches finished in gripping fashion with rarely a kick between them. While the Swans remained a model of consistency, the Eagles slid to the bottom and the rivalry dwindled, but with both teams now back up as contenders, will this rivalry replicate what it once delivered? A line of around a goal would suggest it will and it’s with the visiting Eagles who punters have been most interested in backing. The head to head price has remained firm with the Swans as favourite but the line has firmed in two points from -8.5 to -6.5. Hopefully the money is right and we get another glorious Swans Eagles spectacle.
HOPPING MAD TO BACK THE ROOS
Punters have declared their hand on the Kangaroos in the past week or so. They’ve been backed in from $15 to $11 for the premiership on the back of four consecutive wins and remain the only undefeated team in the competition; a statistic which looks unlikely to change this weekend. Brad Scott’s boys have been easily the best backed team of the round as they take on the injury and suspension ravaged Suns coming off a loss in the worst named rivalry game in history; the Q Clash against the Lions. Having opening with a line of -10.5, punters have snapped that up and then proceeded to take whatever line was offered on the Kangaroos. The -10.5 has ballooned out north of three goals and almost at four, currently sitting at -21.5 with an expectation from Ladbrokes AFL bookmakers it will only inflate further in the lead up to the bounce.
POWER SURGE IN ADELAIDE
Having watched Port Adelaide against the Giants last week, I am at a loss to explain it but for some reason Ladbrokes has seen a big go for the Power against Geelong, who were admittedly below par in disposing of Essendon last week. Maybe David Koch has got his cheque book out or maybe he’s just blown the entire Sunrise budget but the amount of money for Port Adelaide in the past couple of days, at the line especially, has seen them move from $2.35 to $2.10 with the Cats $1.60 out o $1.77 and the line crunched from +9.5 to +3.5.
TIGERS TO EXORCISE THE DEMONS
Richmond has been very, very ordinary this year but surely, despite all the hot air about the Demons in the past week or so, they couldn’t drop one to Melbourne.
Have punters forgotten the Dees lost to Essendon only three weeks ago as a $1.15 favourite? It seems not because despite moving in to favouritism earlier in the week, sanity has prevailed and the Tigers, who look set to welcome back Brett Deledio and Ivan Maric, have attracted the majority of money in the past few days. The inclusion of Deledio cannot be understated; he might not be their best player but he is their most important. In my eyes, and the eyes of many astute AFL punters, if ‘Lids’ plays Tigers win. If he doesn’t, it’s a flip of the coin affair.
FINAL IN LATE APRIL
It is said the annual ANZAC Day game between Collingwood and Essendon is akin to a finals like contest with a sell out MCG crowd creating a buzz generally only seen in September. Having been to many of these matches, I can attest that is indeed the case and for Essendon and Collingwood, just as well, because this is as close as either of these sides will get to finals footy this year. Essendon’s struggles are well documented and expected; Collingwood’s are also well documented but not as easily explainable. While there has been much buzz that the Bombers deserve to be favourites for this one on current form, the simple fact is, that isn’t going to happen. The Pies are rock solid favourites to take this one out and have been incredibly well supported for a side so horribly out of form. The line has got the blows too, pushed out by some serious cash, from -17.5 to -26.5.
In saying all that, ANZAC Day has a history of throwing up some surprise results and I do give the Dons a chance here.