THE BRIEF
Last week we had the match of the round kick us off on a Friday night and certainly, on paper, it looks as if we will do it again tonight with the Kangaroos and Bulldogs going head to head in a top of the table clash.
While last week, with the exception of the Dockers deplorable performance against Carton, the round favoured the punters, round six looks a far tougher equation with more than a handful of matches where the punters don’t see it as clear cut.
THE BIG FIVE
- $10k on North Melbourne (v Bulldogs) @ $1.87
- $10k on North Melbourne -2.5 line (v Bulldogs) @ $1.91
- $10k on West Coast +40.5 line (v Collingwood) @ $1.91
- $5k on Bulldogs (v North Melbourne) @ $1.98
- $5k on West Coast -40.5 line (v Collingwood) @ $1.87
FIRST BOUNCE
As stated previously, it looks as if we have the match of the round kicking us off tonight with North Melbourne and the Bulldogs squaring off in a top of the table clash for the first time since round 22, 1998. I know that because I was there.
Just like 18 years ago when a chubby little teenager called Roger sat in the Southern Stand at the MCG wearing his Bulldogs scarf, the Kangaroos will start favourite.
There has been a solid push for the undefeated ladder leaders throughout the day, firming from $1.90 to $1.85, with the injury depleted Dogs drifting beyond the even money mark.
Two big bets, as indicated above, outline that support but there has been more than a fair share of support for the Bulldogs in what has been a solid betting game from the outset.
DRIFTING DEMONS
They might be turning around a decade of poor form with performances gradually getting better by the week but punters still don’t trust the Demons.
Like last week when they opened almost neck and neck with Richmond before starting a clear underdog and saluting, Melbourne has ballooned out to a more than backable price against the still developing Saints.
The Dees have been $1.60 to $1.80 with St Kilda firming from $2.35 to $2.00 but it is at the line where the biggest go has come for the Saints.
That’s been smashed from 9.5 in to 2.5 with the recent record of Alan Richardson’s boys against the Demons (12 consecutive wins) surely a factor.
FREO SHOCKERS
Having gone down a $1.15 favourite against Carlton last week to drop from minor premier to last place in the space of little more than a month of home and away football, punters have not been forgiving on Fremantle.
With Adelaide pushing the reigning premiers to within three points in the game of the season last week, it’s been one way traffic in the market.
The Crows opened short enough in the head to head to leave little value for the punter, but the line is where value has been identified. That’s been 41.5 out to 49.5 before firming slightly late today in to 46.5.
Barely a bet has been taken on the Dockers despite being a bigger price in the head to head market here than what they started the season for the premiership. Obviously nobody genuinely believes Ross will get a response from his chargers.
TIGERS OF OLD?
It depends which generation you are from as to what ‘Tigers of old’ actually means. A premiership hardened team for those entering their twilight years or a perennial rabble for those 35 and below. For this purpose, I am taking ‘old’ as being the last three seasons where the club has made finals, because the punters have rushed to back the yellow and black like they are a finals bound force and not a team with one win coming off a defeat to Melbourne. Very little separated the sides when the market opened but injuries to key Port Adelaide players in Chad Winged and Robbie Gray, and with the all important Brett Deledio back for the Tigers, Richmond has been absolutely crunched.
$1.90 in to $1.35 with the Power drifting from around even money, all the way out to $3.25. Yet again, line betting has proved a boon for punters who have smashed it like an avocado at a hipster cafe, resulting in it ballooning from 2.5 to 18.5. A massive drift by anyones’ measure.
THE GIANTS ARE GIANT … AGAIN
The commentary call following last year’s defeat the Giants inflicted on the Hawks wasn’t exactly up there with ‘Leo Barry, you star’ but it was memorable nonetheless and if the market moves are anything to go by, the young Giants will stand tall again tomorrow.
The biggest go of the round has been for the competition new boys who could well vie for favouritism by the time they bounce the ball tomorrow evening. And by now you might be picking up a theme with this weekend’s AFL punt, the line. That’s right, it has been the subject of another big go here backed from 11.5 in to 2.5 because obviously people have forgotten Hawthorn has won the past three premiership and won’t respond after a few down weeks and a defeat at the hands of GWS in the corresponding game last season.