THE BRIEF
The Kangaroos remain undefeated and depending on who you listen to, the reigning premiers, Hawthorn, are apparently gone, the Cats are building toward former glory and GWS will win the next 10 flags. Personally, I prefer to go with the one week at a time and make my money that way.
THE BIG FIVE
- $10k on North Melbourne (v St Kilda) @ $1.33
- $7k on Collingwood -20.5 line (v Carlton) @ $1.91
- $5k on Geelong -13.5 line (v West Coast) @ $1.91
- $5k on Melbourne (v Gold Coast) @ $1.95
- $5k on Fremantle +19.5 line (v GWS) @ $1.91
FIRST BOUNCE
Richmond; horribly out of form, missing its two best players in captain Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance and up against the reigning premiers. Tough ask? Apparently not too tough according to a host of punters who have been more than happy to take the Tigers at the line. In what has been one of the biggest goes of the round, the line of 41.5 was just too generous and was subsequently smashed in, so much so, it now sits south of five goals. Sure, the Hawks were thumped last week and have lost skipper Luke Hodge for a month or so, but have people actually watched Richmond play? The team who was beaten convincingly by an undermanned and generally underwhelming Port Adelaide and whose only win of the year came in round one against wooden spoon fancy, Carlton.
Anyway, Hawks are clear favourite in the head to head so nobody actually believes they can pull of an upset which is somewhat reassuring.
COLD PIES
Just like at the footy canteen, there is nothing hot about the Pies and punters have gone ice cold on them too. Up against old foe, Carlton, this week in what shapes as a big moment in Nathan Buckley’s coaching career, Collingwood has been an alarming drifter, out from $1.36 to $1.57 with the Blues very well backed at the line, which has been crunched from 19.5 into 10.5. It seems faith has been restored at Visy Park under Brendon Bolton. Carlton value at $2.45. Let’s just hope it is a better match than the debacle which was the Blues and Essendon last week.
POWER OUTAGE
In what is a far cry from when they played off in the 2004 grand final, Brisbane and Port Adelaide are playing in what some would dub the ‘who cares game of the round’. Obviously not all feel that way though as the Lions have been the subject of one of the biggest goes of the weekend.
After a very encouraging performance against the highly rated Swans last week, Brisbane has been backed from $4 into $2.75 in the head to head market while the line is 23.5 in to 14.5.
The Richmond form lines mean very little if the drift on the Power is anything to go by.
NEW TRICKS FOR DOGS
Probably the match of the round if both sides live up to expectation. The Bulldogs have been decimated by injury this season but it was their skills which let them down against North Melbourne and punters seem to think Luke Beverage has rectified that in the past week. Having opened $1.90 each of two, money for the Bulldogs has them now $1.77 favourite with a line of -3.5. That means, for those who believe the Crows are a good chance to steal this season’s premiership, the $2.10 being offered is a very generous price.
FREO SET FOR SEVENTH … HELL
It was seventh heaven for Ross Lyon and his purple chargers last season when they were undefeated on top of the table at the corresponding point of the year. Now, if the market is on the money, the Dockers will be 0-7. GWS might be 0-6 over at Subiaco but this is a new dawn and the Giants are coming off an eye catching belting of the Hawks. GWS is $1.36 to Fremantle’s $3.25 with good money also at the line pushing it from 20.5 to 23.5.
QUICK LOOK
One way traffic in the Swans verses Essendon match with the line out from 10 goals to 12 and Buddy every chance to kick more than the Bombers, in turn bolstering his Coleman Medal claims
Melbourne have been up and down all season and that’s why punters simply can’t trust them. They were a big drifter last round and lost to the Saints while this week travelling to the Gold Coast, they’ll start outsiders against a Suns side belted by 20 goals last week.
North Melbourne has been rock solid at $1.33 against the Saints who, while capable of the odd upset, probably won’t have the class for the Kangaroos.