What a great run we are having with Friday night games at the moment; this one is an absolute peach. A real DANGER game. Patrick Dangerfield up against his old team on his old home ground looking to further enhance his new club’s standing as a top four team and himself as the Brownlow Medal favourite. The rest of the weekend is interesting. Generally speaking the games appear very cut and dried or a genuine flip of the coin.
THE BIG FIVE
- $10k on Sydney (v Richmond) @ $1.24
- $7k on West Coast -40.5 line (v St Kilda) @ $1.91
- $7k on Brisbane (v Collingwood) @ $1.85
- $5k on Carlton (v Port Adelaide) @ $2.75
- $1k on Geelong to win the premiership @ $5.50
FIRST BOUNCE
As previously stated, what a game to kick us off. I actually forgot there are 21 other players who represent Geelong as, given the media hype this week, figured it was solely Dangerfield who was taking on the Crows.
Punters genuinely have no idea which was this one will fall and if the Danger factor will spur on Adelaide or highlight how much they miss him in the midfield.
The Cats opened a narrow favourite with a line of 1.5 before Adelaide assumed favouritism at $1.85 to the Cats $2. Within an hour, punters had again rallied around Geelong, who are now $1.88 with Adelaide $1.97 and the line back at 1.5.
Depending on when you read this, there is every chance it has flipped another couple of times.
This is the ultimate flip of the coin game but for mine, i’m with the Cats.
SWAN DIVE
Perhaps a more interesting contest than it appears on paper. Sydney, second in premiership betting, against Richmond, who have won just the one match for the year, against wooden spoon fancy, Carlton, in round one. However, the two times Sydney has failed to cover the line as favourite have come on the road and here they are making a trip to the MCG where they have only a fair record at best. With that in mind, some smart punters have been inclined to back an improved effort from the Tigers and take them at the +. For that reason the line has firmed from 26.5 to 24.5 while the head to head has barley moved with Sydney a clear cut and relatively short priced favourite at 1.23.
NO LONGER BLUE
So Brendon Bolton has the magic touch and, against the odds, Carlton aren’t terrible anymore. Here we have two teams who were widely tipped to finish at opposite ends of the ladder yet, after seven rounds, expectations for both have changed.
Carlton is aiming for four wins in succession for the first time since Noah was a boy while Port Adelaide is looking to keep in touch with the top eight, however it’s the underdog Blues who punters seem to have more faith in.
The Power are out from 1.45 to 1.53 while Blues have firmed from $2.75 to $2.55 and have been the best backed outsider of the round. Clearly.
The line has also had a good amount of support at the + and has trimmed from 15.5 to 12.5 following a similar pattern to last week when Carlton upset Collingwood.
NO BUCKS FOR BUCKS BOYS
If Nathan Buckley thought the pressure of the past fortnight was intense, should tomorrow’s match follow what the betting is predicting, he is in for a week from hell next week.
The lowly Lions opened a narrow favourite with a line of -1.5 but with the money going in one direction all week, Brisbane is now a rock solid top pick at $1.65 with a line of -9.5. Collingwood on the other hand have been absolutely friendless, out from $1.85 to $2.35. The noose around Buckley’s neck could tighten so dramatically after this one, his face could go as red as Eddie McGuire’s generally does during a Magpies match.
QUICK LOOK
The undefeated Kangaroos against the beleaguered Bombers and no surprise there has been no support for the latter in the head to head. With Wells and Higgins both missing for the ladder leaders the line has trimmed slightly, in from 54.5 to 51.5 but no doubt this game will see North Melbourne clock up eight straight to start the season.
Ross Lyon is rebuilding so, with that in mind, former skipper Matthew Pavlich won’t lug his ageing body across the country to Tasmania for a match with the triple reining premier Hawks.
Hawthorn is unsurprisingly short given its record in the apple isle and the Dockers horrendous 2016 form. The line has shifted only slightly from 45.5 in to 42.5, so don’t expect Fremantle to finally get on the winner’s list here.
There will forever be comparison between the GWS and Gold Coast but, using the market as a guide, this game will show how big a gulf there is between the competitions youngest clubs. The Giants are en route to a maiden finals appearance and have been well backed to dispose of the Suns in clinical fashion. The line here got beyond 10 goals for a time but has shortened again back to its original mark of 57.5.