THE BRIEF
One game over for the round, not that it was much of one. West Coast covered the line as they should against Essendon, who allowed everyone an early Thursday night given we are in no way compelled to watch them this season. The good news is, the real games begin tonight and the better news is, this is the final one of the three bye rounds so we are back to a glorious nine from next week.
THE BIG FIVE
- $10k Adelaide (v Melbourne) @ $1.35
- $8.5k Adelaide (v Melbourne) @ $1.33
- $5k St Kilda (v Gold Coast) @ $1.92
- $3k on Collingwood (v Carlton) @ $1.77
- $2k on Bulldogs (v Sydney) @ $3.05
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
The Power essentially pulled the plug on the Tigers season back in late April when they rose up as underdogs and defeated them on the MCG. This time it’s on the Power’s home patch but there is money headed in both directions. The home ground factor is big in terms of setting the odds and, for that reason, Richmond does look attractive at $3.25 but the inconsistencies of both sides make it tough to call. We have seen slightly more action for the Power at $1.36 which, for mine, is too short for a team whose best is good enough but infrequently seen.
SAINTS IN THE SUN
Ah, the wonderful world of betting on St Kilda. They beat the premiership favourites as a well backed underdog last week and find themselves only marginal favourites against Gold Coast (who haven’t won a game since round three) the next.
Both sides have been favourite at some point this week and, as I type, it’s St Kilda who currently head the market, although punters are predicting a lull after last week’s epic win.
Odds show basically a flip of the coin game with almost no line, so punt with care would be my suggestion. St Kilda, as good as they were last week, are the ladder leaders for inconsistency.
THE BIG FIVE
Okay, so The Big Five in this column is about the bets – usually – but after a horrendous run with injury, the Bulldogs have made five changes, welcoming back some heavy artillery for the trip to Sydney and punters are all in.
The Dogs have been the best backed outsider of the weekend in from $3.05 to $2.85, while the Swans, with no Richards and no Tippett, have eased from $1.38 to $1.45 with good support for the visitors at the line as well, which has firmed from 17.5 into 13.5.
THE TRADITION CONTINUES
Carlton and Collingwood is one of the great rivalries of football and what better occasion to unleash a third generation of one of your club’s most famous families. Jack Silvagni, son of Steve and grandson of Serge, will play his first game against the old enemy, but punters don’t feel this will be a happy debut for the youngster. Collingwood has been the best backed team of the round, into $1.57 from $1.77 with the money continuing to come.
The Blues are $2.10 out to $2.45 with the line ballooning from 3.5 to 9.5.
AS THE CROWS FLIES
Adelaide is the most in form team in the competition and unlike many of its rivals, the Crows can win on the road. Having opened $1.38, punters don’t believe the trip east to tackle the Dees will take too much out of them, with Adelaide now $1.28 and gathering even more support.
The Demons are unloved and out from $3.35 to $3.75 while the line has also been well backed at the minus, easing near on a goal from 21.5 to 26.5.