AFL Ladbrokes Lowdown

Ladbrokes Lowdown: AFL Round 17

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THE BRIEF

Thursday night footy is done for another season – barring a final of course – but what a way to finish last night with one of the games of the season between two teams destined to be there at the business end and quite possibly fighting it out on grand final day.

The rest of the round presents some possible top eight shaping contests and a couple of stinkers as well but, as I always say, the quality of a contest has little impact on the money making aspect of it so, let’s follow the money trail.

THE BIG FIVE

  • $10k on Bulldogs (v Gold Coast Suns) @ $1.18
  • $5k on West Coast -33.5 (v Carlton) @ $1.92
  • $4k on West Coast -33.5 (v Carlton) @ $1.92
  • $3k on Fremantle 1-39 (v Geelong) @ $4.40
  • $3k on Adelaide (v Collingwood) @ $1.20

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Geelong has this season been a recurring nightmare for punters trying to make some quick cash at short odds, losing to the likes of Carlton, Collingwood and St Kilda, while outclassing the top teams they’ll most likely meet in September. With that in mind, it is no surprise we have seen a good solid go for Freo at some juicy odds at home in the west.

Clearly form means very little here, given the Dockers were reasonably awful against Melbourne in Darwin last weekend, yet they’ve been backed from $5 into $3.45, with the line sliced from 29.5 to 20.5.

Michael Barlow’s return from finger surgery and the absence of veteran Cat, Jimmy Bartel, no doubt playing a part.

Geelong has eased from $1.18 to $1.33 but if the price gets much bigger, except a rally for the Cats.

FINAL FLING

Port Adelaide seems to be the only team outside the eight with a legitimate shot at making it in by season’s end but even that is a fairly remote possibility. Should they make it, it will almost certainly be at North Melbourne’s expense and certainly earlier in the week we saw a decent go for the Power with the line firming two points from 17.5 to 15.5. The selection table has been kind to the Roos though and on the back of that, they’ve been supported, with that line now out to 19.5.

Head to head, the Kangaroos are very much the flavour at $1.36 to Port $3.25.

SUNSET SEASON

Sure, there was no chance of Gold Coast making the eight but things were starting to look a little rosier for at least a couple of weeks … until the light at the end of the tunnel was revealed to be a train.

In the space of a week, they’ve lost Gary Ablett and Michael Rischetelli for the season while young gun Dion Pestia is injured as well and, after all that, they take on the finals bound Bulldogs.

All the support has been for the Bullies who are $1.18 into $1.11 with the Suns $5 out to $7 and a line extending more than a goal from 31.5 to 40.5.

This one is a home game for the Bulldogs in Cairns, as opposed to Etihad, which means they probably aren’t as short as they should be.

PIE NIGHT

Collingwood pulled off one of the upsets of the season last week defeating the Giants but the punting fraternity don’t believe they have it in them again this week. Not against the in-form Adelaide, anyway.

The Crows have won seven straight and are $1.20 into $1.17 to extend that to eight as the Magpies move from $4.60 out to $5.25. The home side has also been backed well at the line, which has shifted from 32.5 out to 35.5.

BEST BACKED SIDES

  • West Coast (v Carlton)
  • North Melbourne (v Port Adelaide)
  • Bulldogs (v Gold Coast)
  • Adelaide (v Collingwood)

UNLOVED

  • St Kilda (v Melbourne)
  • Carlton (v West Coast)
Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.