The majority of this field will be having their first race starts and as the market suggests it is an incredibly open race. It is impossible to bet into this contest with any real confidence and I am happy to stay out.
No Bet
Calculated was not disgraced when he returned to the races with a second place finish at Royal Randwick last start and if he can improve on that effort he will go to a level that makes him very tough to beat. He found the line nicely first-up and the step-up to 1200 metres should suit him. Blake Shinn will likely settle him in the second half of the field from the outside barrier draw and he will be flying home late.
4 Units Calculated
Nonpareil does not have a great winning record, but she returns to the races in a very winnable contest. She was thereabouts in each of her starts last campaign and this is the weakest race that she has contested in some time. Her recent barrier trial win at Royal Randwick suggests that she is fairly forward for her return to the races and the 1000 metres should suit.
3 Units Nonpareil
This is a big step-up in class for Coonawarra, but he is the only horse in this field with any real upside. He absolutely bolted in to win at Muswellbrook two starts ago and he had a clear edge over his rivals last start. This is his first opportunity at 2400 metres, but there is no doubt that he is a fit galloper and he makes his own luck right on the speed.
1.5 Units Coonawarra
Baysa is on the quick back-up after she was only narrowly denied at Canterbury last start. She may not have gotten the job done, but there was still plenty of merit in the performance and she ran some slick closing sections. The Mastercraftsman mare has a turn-of-foot that can’t be matched by the majority of this field and she can finish over the top of her rivals.
2.5 Units Baysa
This is an interesting edition of the Summer Cup as the majority of the leading contenders don’t have a great deal of form over 2000 metres. Montauk is not the most consistent horse in the world, but his best form would be good enough to win this and his career best performance came over the 2000 metres course at Rosehill Gardens. The fact that he has had a barrier trial between starts is a positive and he is over the odds at the current price of $11.
1 Unit Montauk
Montreal has always looked like a Stakes horse in the making and he returned to the races with a dominant five lengths win art Wyong. This race is obviously tougher, but he is a horse that still has a great deal of upside and on exposed form has an edge over his rivals. Rachel King will take him straight to the front and he should be able to make it two wins on the trot.
4 Units Montreal
This is way of the most interesting races of the day and a tough way to finish the day for punters. Dawn Raid is a horse that does appeal at juicy odds. He has improved each time that he has been seen at the races and his record is excellent. There is no doubt that he will need some luck in running, but he does have the benefit of Brenton Avdulla in the saddle and is well and truly over the odds.
1 Unit Dawn Raid