While AFL, NRL, Cricket, Basketball and Soccer are considered some of the most popular sports in Australia, it seems that leadership spills and changing our Prime Minister on short notice is now right up there with our favourite national pastimes.
With Peter Dutton challenging for the Liberal Party leadership just yesterday and only going down to Malcolm Turnbull on a vote of 35-48, it’s looking like it’s only a matter of time before he challenges again and finds himself in the highest office in the land.
Should this happen, it would mean the last time a Prime Minister served a full-time into an election was John Howard in 2007.
While the pollies in Canberra fight it out amongst themselves, Ladbrokes have framed a few markets so you can back a winner while they try and back themselves.
Leadership Challenge – Will Malcolm Turnbull Face A Second Leadership Challenge
Think backing Winx or Richmond to win on the MCG, another leadership challenge in the Liberal Party room is going to happen.
Despite Peter Dutton losing the sudden spill in the Liberal Party leadership yesterday 35-48, Dutton needs only seven more of his fellow party members to get on board the Dutton express before he finds himself, leader of the Liberals and our next Prime Minister.
With Peter Dutton a humble backbencher, for now, make no mistake, he will challenge again and he’s odds on to win.
Back Yes – Malcolm Turnbull To Face A Second Leadership Challenge @ $1.05
Prime Minister At The End Of The Week
Will Malcolm Turnbull be the leader of the Liberal Party on 26/08 at 23:59?
It’s a toss of a coin, with yes and no both being at $1.83 apiece.
With stories about Peter Dutton potentially being seen as unable to sit in parliament due to shareholdings and people within the Liberal party criticising some of Dutton’s policy proposals, I’m in favour of backing that this might drag out a little bit longer.
Think of this market similar to backing a footy team at the line.
Back Malcolm Turnbull still the Liberal Party leader on 26/08 at 23:59 @ $2.05
Prime Minister After The Next Election
If current trends persist, Bill Shorten is on his way to the lodge as $1.40 favourite to be our next Prime Minister.
In what is now a three-horse race, Peter Dutton is at $5 and Malcolm Turnbull is at $5.50.
While there have been some significant upsets in elections around the world in recent years (Brexit, Trump, Super Saturday By-Elections) the feeling out there with the punters is that we will see a Shorten Prime Ministership in the next 6-12 months.
Who knows? Perhaps it’s a case of “Back to the Future” and Tony Abbott gets his wish of becoming PM again but at $26 it’s highly unlikely.
It’s best to get on Bill now before his odds shorten – all puns intended.
Back Bill Shorten For Prime Minister After The Next Election @ $1.40
Opposition Leader After The Next Election
Assuming the polls and the markets are correct, Labor will win the next Federal Election.
With that in mind, the Liberal’s at play are Peter Dutton ($1.90), Scott Morrison ($3.50), Tony Abbott ($4) and Julie Bishop ($15).
Malcolm Turnbull is also at $15 to be opposition leader at the next election but that is extremely unlikely.
Being the LOTO (Leader of the Opposition) after an election loss is no easy task although it seems to be a safer job than being Prime Minister these days; with Bill Shorten every chance of being up against three different PM’s in his six years as Labor leader.
With that in mind, there is every chance that Peter Dutton could be Prime Minister for a few months and then stays on as Opposition Leader after an election.
Back Peter Dutton @ $1.80
Month Of Next Federal Election
With the Federal Parliament not subject to fixed terms, there’s always constant speculation in the air as to when the next Federal Election will be held.
This could play out in a few ways.
In order to save his leadership Malcolm Turnbull could head off to see the Governor General anytime in the next month or so (provided he’s still leader) and send Australian’s to the polls.
Just as likely an outcome is that another Liberal leadership spill happens, Peter Dutton becomes Prime Minister and wants a few months to prove his worth to the Cabinet, Coalition and most importantly, the electorate.
At present, punters favour an election in October this year, which means Malcolm Turnbull will call it ASAP to ensure the party can’t dump him as PM.
It would also mean an election being held around the same time as one of the major Spring Racing Carnival meets either Caulfield Guineas or Caulfield Cup day.
He would be mad if he were to call it on Ladbrokes Cox Plate day, when the mighty Winx goes for four in a row at the Valley (which used to be in Bill Shorten’s electorate).
You can rule out September as the campaign turnaround would be too short and footy finals of the both the NRL and AFL rule the daily news cycle.
November 2018 is out as Victorian’s go to the polls on the 24th of that month and despite being the second favourite in our market, March 2019 should be ruled out with NSW going to the polls on the 23rd.
An election early in 2019 is very likely and an election in February of next year being at $7 it is outstanding value.
That is, of course, if the politicians want to clash with the anticipation for the next AFLX tournament.
Back February 2019 @ $7
Next Labor Leader
With Labor successful in the super-Saturday by-elections, Bill Shorten is as safe as you can get for an Australian political leader in the current climate and if he is successful at the next election it’ll be a matter of years (or months) before you’d be able to collect your winnings.
Anthony Albanese is favourite at $1.40 to become the next Labor leader but, again, it’ll be a fair while before Labor attempts a new leader.
It’s also worth reminding punters that the Labor party leadership also requires a vote from party members along with the parliamentary caucus.
When this vote occured for the first time after the 2013 federal election Albo won the popular vote with the party members but couldn’t get enough of his colleagues to back him for leader, which got Bill Shorten home.
No Bet
Federal Election – Sworn In Government
” We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott’s leadership,” and with that lay the poison chalice that has haunted Malcolm Turnbull’s Prime Ministership since taking over from Tony Abbott in September 2015.
Since the Federal Election in 2016, Malcolm Turnbull has now gone on to lose 38 Newspoll’s to Labor and a recent Fairfax-Ipsos poll suggesting the Coalition trails Labor 45-55 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
Labor is at the short odds of $1.36 to win the next federal election.
If current trends persist, this is better than bank interest.
Back Labor @ $1.36
*Odds correct as of 4:30pm 22nd August 2018.
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