I am willing to give Naantali another chance after she was beaten at Caulfield last start. I’m not sure that leading suited her and she clearly overraced. I expect Mark Zahra to ride her a touch more conservatively in this contest and she should get a lovely run in transit. She couldn’t have been more impressive when she won over a mile at The Valley two starts ago and a repeat of that effort would make her very tough to beat.
3 Units Naantali
Lucky For All recorded three wins on the trot last campaign before he finished a credible seventh in the Queensland Derby. He has run well fresh during his brief racing career to date and the fact that Darren Weir has kicked him off over a mile suggests that he is fairly forward for his return to the races. John Allen should be able to give him the run of the race from barrier four and the Tavistock gelding will prove tough to beat.
3 Units Lucky For All
Approach Discreet absolutely bolted in to win by eight and a half lengths at Morphettville last start and that saw him jump straight to the top of Victoria Derby betting. He is clearly a classy galloper with a stack of upside and he is the type of lightly-raced Darren Weir-trained galloper that will only improve with more racing under his belt. He maps to get a lovely run in transit and he is clearly the horse to beat.
3 Units Approach Discreet
This is an excellent betting contest and there are a stack of winning chances. Hush Writer is a lightly-raced horse from France that does look to have a bit of x-factor about him. He won over 2000 metres at Longchamp earlier this year and he was only narrowly denied in the Prix Hocquart Longines. He is a horse that showed early speed in Europe, which makes him the perfect horse for the Gai Waterhouse stable, and he is capable of impressing in his Australian racing debut.
Trap For Fools was very impressive last start and must be respected, but this race is tougher and I can’t get him as short as his current quote. Yogi has the talent to win, but he will get a long way back and The Valley may not suit.
1 Unit Hush Writer
Nature Strip will have another chance to push for a berth in The Everest when he contests the McEwen Stakes at The Valley. I have my doubts over his ability to run out a strong 1200 metres at the highest level, but he is electric over 1000 metres and he is deserving of his position as a dominant favourite. He absolutely flogged Sunlight last start in the Lightning Handicap and she has since won the Quezette Stakes. The likes of Shoals, Houtzen and Quilista aren’t mugs, but over 1000 metres it is tough to see them matching it with Nature Strip. There is no value at the current price of $1.50, but I’m still not willing to bet against him.
No Bet
Anjana recorded three wins from as many starts as a two-year-old and she is a filly with an enormous amount of talent. She has improved each time that she has been seen at the races and her last start win at The Valley was particularly impressive. The wide barrier draw isn’t ideal and she will need some luck in running, but I think that there is star-quality about her and she is great value at the current price of $5.50.
There was plenty to like about the racing return of Thrillster and she ran some very smart closing sectionals in the Quezette Stakes. She doesn’t have to get as far back from barrier three on Saturday and it is no surprise that she has been well-supported in early betting. Peter Moody thinks she might be a star and the step-up to 1200 metres will suit.
2 Units Anjana
1 Unit Thrillster
I’m a huge fan of Osborne Bulls and his record speaks for himself. In saying that, this really doesn’t look like a great set-up for him. He doesn’t have a huge amount of early speed and there will be a wall of horses in front of him. I’m really not sure that The Valley is the right track for him and I have to oppose at the current quote.
The horse that does appeal at a nice price is Crack Me Up. This is a supremely underrated galloper and he should still have some residual fitness following his fourth place finish in the Stradbroke Handicap. He has trialled nicely ahead of his return to the races and he is capable of a high-rating performance on his day.
Update: Crack Me Up has been scratched from the Bendigo Bank Stakes. That has taken the betting value out of this contest and I am happy to stay out.
1 Unit Crack Me Up
It has been a long time between race starts for Bonneval and she is the definite x-factor in this field. She missed the Autumn, but her recent barrier trial in New Zealand was strong and trainer Murray Baker wouldn’t have her over here if she wasn’t going well. She won this race in impressive fashion 12 months ago, she runs well fresh and a repeat of that effort would make her very tough to beat again.
A horse that appeals to me at juicy double-figure odds is Spanish Reef. She went to another level during the Autumn and her win over this track and distance in the Sunline Stakes was enormous. She makes her own luck right on the speed and there has already been some early money for her. It would not surprise to see her pinch this race.
1.5 Units Bonneval
1 Unit Spanish Reef
This is a tough way to finish the day for punters and the majority of punters will be going very wide in the quaddie. This is not a race that I want to get too heavily involved in, but Northwest Passage is a horse that stands out at double-figure odds. There was plenty of merit in his first-up run in the Rowley Mile and he should take plenty of benefit from that performance. He has the speed required to take up a forward position from the wide barrier and he has won at The Valley before.
1 Unit Northwest Passage