Delusions has opened as a dominant favourite after she made her racing debut with a dominant win at Swan Hill. There is no doubt that she is a filly with promise, but this is a genuine step-up in class. I don’t want to bet against her, but I can’t get her as short as her current quote of $2.70.
No Bet
Yulong January has done nothing wrong during his racing career to date and he returns to Melbourne after recording an impressive win in Sydney. This is tougher again, but there is no doubt that he is a colt with plenty of upside and he makes his own luck right on the speed. Nobody missed the luckless run of Ranier last start in the Antler Luggage Stakes, but I would still rather be on Yulong January at the current price.
2 Units Yulong January
Eduardo deserves to win a Stakes race and he gets his chance to do just that in the Caulfield Sprint. He was only narrowly denied by I Am Excited in the Gilgai Stakes and a repeat of that performance would make him very tough to beat in this contest. 1000 metres should suit him and Brian Park will be able to settle him right on the speed in the early stages of this contest. This is his chance to return to winning form and claim the biggest victory of his career to date.
2 Units Eduardo
Soothing had her winning run ended at Caulfield last start, but she did get too far back and the race wasn’t run to suit. James McDonald should be able to settle her much closer to the speed from barrier four and I am happy to give her another opportunity. She has an excellent record at 1100 metres and she is a mare that deserves a maiden win at black-type level.
1.5 Units Soothing
The market has this pegged as a race in two between Greysful Glamour and Verry Elleegant. Greysful Glamour absolutely bolted in to win the Kennedy Oaks Trial and she is a filly that makes her own luck right on the speed. She gives the impression that the step-up in trip will suit and she will prove tough to run down.
Veryy Elleegant made her Australian racing debut with a fast-finishing third in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the form coming out of that race has been very strong after Amphitrite won the Thousand Guineas last weekend. She maps to get a lovely run in transit and is another that will relish the 2000 metres.
I’m confident that one of these fillies will get the job done, but I can’t really separate them and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
Extra Brut was impressive in the UCI Stakes, but he did get to the best part of the track and it would not surprise to see him produce a flat effort here as he heads towards the Victoria Derby.
I fancy the form coming out of the Spring Champion Stakes and both Thinkin’ Big and Dealmaker appeal at their current odds. Thinkin’ Big was caught wide throughout in the Spring Champion Stakes and he had to do plenty of work early. There isn’t a great deal of speed in this contest and he should be able to roll across and take up the running from the wide barrier draw. If he does that he will prove tough to run down and Gai Waterhouse has an excellent strike rate in Melbourne.
Dealmaker did not have a great build-up to the Spring Champion Stakes and he was given a shocking ride by Damien Oliver in the race itself. He should take plenty of benefit from that run and he maps to get a lovely run in transit with Hugh Bowman in the saddle. With even luck in running at the right time, he will be in the finish.
2 Units Thinkin’ Big
1 Unit Dealmaker
This is an open edition of the Ladbrokes Coongy Cup. Best Of Days is a genuine query at 2000 metres, but there is no horse in this field with more upside. He was only narrowly denied by the talented Furrion at Caulfield last start and his form before that had been excellent. James McDonald is riding with plenty of confidence and the imported galloper does map to get the run of the race.
2 Units Best Of Days
The Caulfield Cup is always a fascinating betting race and the 2018 edition is set to be no exception. I’ve got no knock on Kings Will Dream or Youngstar, but I can’t get either of them as short as their current odds in a race that has this must quality.
The horse to beat is The Cliffsofmoher. His performance in the Ladbrokes Stakes last weekend was nothing short of outstanding and his form in Europe is of the highest quality. It has been a while between race wins, but he has a similar profile to Johannes Vermeer and he was unlucky not to win the Caulfield Cup 12 months ago. If The Cliffofmoher can improve on his Ladbrokes Stakes effort, he will prove very tough to hold out.
The local hope that represents value is Ace High. He has been racing well at weight-for-age level during his Spring Racing Carnival campaign to date and his win in the Hill Stakes was outstanding. His two previous runs at 2400 metres or above were stellar – he won the Victoria Derby and finished a close second in the Australian Derby – and he can go to a level that will put him right in this race.
Godolphin have made an excellent start to the 2018 Spring Racing Carnival and Best Solution is outstanding value at his current odds. He has produced three excellent wins in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes, Grosser Preis Von Berlin and Grosser Preis Von Baden this season and he is a horse that has carried big weights to win in the past. The wide barrier draw isn’t ideal, but he does possess tactical speed and Pat Cosgrave will have options in the early stages.
Another international that has snuck under the radar of local punters is Red Verdon. He is not a horse that wins out of turn, but his form this year has been rock solid. Red Verdon actually beat The Cliffsofmoher home in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and his record at 2400 metres is excellent. He is prepared by Ed Dunlop, of Red Cadeaux and Trip To Paris fame, and he knows the type of horses that are required to run well in Australia.
1.5 Units The Cliffsofmoher
1 Unit Ace High
½ Unit Best Solution
½ Unit Red Verdon
This is an open edition of the Tristarc Stakes and not a race that I want to get heavily involved in. The mare that does appeal at juicy odds is Invincible Gem. She was not disgraced in what was a very strong edition of the Premiere Stakes and the return to mares company does suit. The step-up to 1400 metres suits and she is a mare that is capable of a high-rating performance on her day. The $10 that is currently available is well and truly over the odds.
1 Unit Invincible Gem
The Ladbrokes Moonga Stakes is a very open race and there are a stack of winning chances. Peaceful State was never able to get into the race in the Ladbrokes Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and you can basically put a pen through that run. His first-up effort behind Land Of Plenty in the Bendigo Bank Stakes at The Valley was excellent and I like the fact that trainer Darren Weir has freshened him up for this contest. This is his chance to return to winning form and he will go into the Cantala Stakes as one of the leading contenders.
2 Units Peaceful State