Victorians head to the polls this Saturday to decide if they want four more years of Daniel Andrews’ Labor government or return to Matthew Guy and the Liberal/National Coalition after one term in opposition.
Victorian politics is rare in the fact that there hasn’t been one leadership spill during this term, with Daniel Andrews currently the longest-serving leader of a government in Australia, while the Liberal’s Matthew Guy has lasted the entire four years as Opposition Leader.
The past two state elections in Victoria has seen the Liberal/National Coalition narrowly defeat Labor in 2010 and Labor regain office in 2014.
While one-term governments are still considered rare, an election upset can’t be ruled out in this current climate.
While the polls suggest that Daniel Andrews and Labor are likely to win a second term in office, the likes of the Greens in the inner-city and rise votes for independent candidates/minor parties means that we could be in for another series of interesting results once the votes are counted on Saturday.
Ladbrokes has a number of markets for this election including the party of the premier, hung parliament and individual seats and there are many competitive markets.
We’ve broken the individual seats we think that Labor, The Coalition (Liberal/National), The Greens and other minor parties and independents that are a chance to win this Saturday.
Overall – Party of Premier
The market currently has Daniel Andrews and Labor to win a second term at the Winx-like odds of $1.17, with Matthew Guy and the Coalition out to $4.33 in what would make it one of the biggest election upsets in recent years. Although election upsets are common in this day and age, it’s a market that’s best be left due to the short-priced favourite.
No Bet
Majority Government
Some are expecting the inner city seats of Melbourne, Northcote, Richmond, Prahran and Richmond to all go Green and that means we could see a minority government, with Labor the most likely to do a deal with The Greens to remain in office. It could happen and worth taking at the price of $2.85
BACK Coalition or Labor NOT to win a Majority Government @ $2.85
Labor v Coalition Seat Count
While Labor and Dan Andrews may be at shorter odds than the mighty mare, it’s probably not going to be a total landslide result. With the prospect of some more Independents and Greens entering the parliament, Labor having two more seats than the Coaltion at $7 makes for excellent value.
Back Labor exactly 2 more seats than Liberal-National Coalition @ $7
Green Seats Won
While some expect a Green wave in the inner city where they could win up to five seats, expect them to win two or three. The Greens campaign has been dogged by scandal , which could put some people off bringing votes back to Labor. Two Greens seats at $6 makes for excellent value.
Back 2 Green Seats Won at $6
Albert Park
This seat is interesting as the Liberal Party have won the popular vote in both the 2010 and 2014 Victorian State Elections, but the Labor candidate has been able to get over the line thanks to Greens preferences. Expect history to repeat itself again this Saturday and Labor’s Martin Foley, a senior minister in the Andrews Government, to retain Albert Park with the backing of the Green vote.
Back Labor to win Albert Park @$1.28
Bass
One of the seats the Liberal Party was able to retain at the 2014 state election, Bass is now neck and neck in our betting market (as of Tuesday) with both Labor and Liberal at $1.85 each. The electorate, which is a mix of Melbourne’s outer south-eastern fringe suburbs and regional areas including Phillip Island, makes for an interesting dynamic and is very much a toss of the coin. If backing it, it’s worth sticking with the status quo given the Liberal Party has always held the seat.
Back Coalition (Liberal) to win Bass @ $1.85
Benambra
One of the seats to watch this state election the regional seat of Benambra. While it’s always been held by a Coalition member, the seat falls in the federal electorate of Indi held by independent Cathy McGowan. Recent elections around the country have seen independents get up in regional seats and this once conservative stronghold could be in for a shakeup and at $4 for an Independent to get up, it’s a good value bet.
Back Independent to win Benambra @ $4
Brunswick
One of the five ALP v Greens inner city contests that makes for interesting betting. The Greens have had their eyes on the inner Northern gentrified hipster/migrant suburb for a number of years now and with the population of the area changing more in The Greens favour, it could be the time they finally lay claim to the seat of Brunswick. Labor, who has held the seat for its entire history, is still a relatively good chance to retain but should recent inner-city trends persist, expect Brunswick to go Green for the first time this Saturday.
Back The Greens to win Brunswick @ $1.50
Burwood
The onetime seat of former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett, Burwood could be one of the surprise packets of this Saturday’s State Election. Currently held by the Liberal Party with a margin of 3.2%, Burwood could be one of those seats that head Labor’s way should the swing be on to the government come election day. In a field of five candidates, should Labor increase their primary vote and preferences flow from the likes of the Greens and the Animal Justice Party, it could be a surprise upset in favour of the Labor Party.
Back Labor to win Burwood @ $2.50
Carrum
One of the most marginal seats in the Victorian Parliament, the sandbelt south-eastern suburbs seat is currently held by Labor with a margin of 0.7%. With a boundary change tending to favour Labor and a sitting member factor, expect them to retain the seat with an increased margin.
Back Labor to win Carrum @ $1.33
Cranbourne
Currently held by Labor with a margin of 2.3%, the sitting member has retired and the seat is experiencing some serious population growth with several housing estates popping up within its boundaries. If there is a swing to the Coalition, this is the kind of seat they would pick up as a result of it.
Back Coalition (Liberal) to win Cranbourne @ $3.25
Eildon
This seat first came into play at the 2014 state election, replacing the seat of Seymour, and was won by the Liberal Party with a margin of 3.9%. While there are strong Labor areas of the electorate, most booths tend to go blue and it should be a seat that the Coalition can bank on to retain at the election.
Back Colaiton (Liberal) to win Eildon @ $1.30
Frankston
One of the bellwethers of this election, Frankston is currently held by the Labor party by the narrowest of margins of 0.5% and could go either way. Frankston has been a major battleground this election, with both Dan Andrews and Matthew Guy making regular visits to the bayside hub, but if trends and polls are to be looked at, it’s likely that Labor will retain the seat and the video of the Liberal candidate looking confused is something that won’t help his cause.
Back Labor to win Frankson @ $1.55
Ripon
If Labor is to gain seats, they are going to need to look to the regional areas and Ripon is one of them. However, it was one of the only Liberal gains at the 2014 election. Ripon is a tight market with the Coalition at $1.80 and Labor at $1.90 so it’s tight. With that in mind, expect some preferences from the likes of the Family First and Shooters and Fishers to flow to the Liberals, which should get them over the line in this one.
Back Coaliton (Liberal) to win Rippon @ $1.80
Mordialloc
Another seat from the sandbelt, Mordialloc will prove to be a vital battleground in who will seize control of Spring Street this Saturday. Currently held by Labor with a margin of 2.1%, Mordialloc should be a seat Labor retains should they keep their primary vote and get some preferences flowing their way.
Back Labor to win Mordialloc @ $1.29
Morwell
Another key battleground this election, the regional seat of Morwell in the Gippsland area is currently narrowly held by a National turned Independent. With a strong independent candidate and Labor campaigning hard in the seat, it could be one that the Coalition may struggle to gain. While the Independent is currently favourite at $2.60 to win the seat, it’s preferences and a likely increase in the primary vote that could get Labor over the line.
Back Labor to win Morwell @ $2.60
Melbourne
The first seat to be seized by the Greens at the 2014 state election, Melbourne is a seat that most would expect the minor party to retain at the state election. However, recent polling has seen that the contest is tighter than expected in the inner city seat and there could be an upset with Labor retaining the seat. Worth a shot at the current odds of $2.90.
Back Labor to win Melbourne @ $2.90
Northcote
Another of the inner-city seats that was once a Labor stronghold, Northcote went Green and big time when a by-election was held last year. Expect The Greens to keep hold of the seat despite the Liberal Party running a candidate, the preferences probably won’t get Labor over the line.
Back The Greens to win Northcote @ $1.30
Ovens Valley
Another safe National Party seat that falls within the federal electorate of Indi, which means they’ve had a taste of Independent members at a federal level and they might want one of a state flavour. The Independent running, Tammy Atkins is an ex-councillor and was active in Cathy McGowan (the federal member’s) campaign.
Back Independent to win Ovens Valley @ $4.50
Prahran
The most fascinating individual seat of this election, where it could be won by Labor, Liberal and The Greens. Despite finishing third in the primary, Green Sam Hibbins was able to claim victory after preferences went his way becoming the first Green to unseat a Liberal member back in the 2014 state election. Will history repeat? Unlikely. Currently, our market has Labor, the Coalition (Liberal) and The Greens at $2.60 each. The area which covers suburbs such as South Yarra and parts of Toorak will tend to go the way of the Libs and we should expect this to be a Liberal Party gain if you were to take (all puns intended) a conservative approach to it, but Prahran remains a mystery for punters.
Back Coalition (Liberal) to win Prahran @ $2.60
South Barwon
Currently held by the Liberal Party with a margin of 2.9%, South Barwon is another marginal battleground that both Matthew Guy and Daniel Andrews have made regular visits to this election. History shows it’s been a Liberal electorate for the majority of its existence and has strong Liberal voting areas, which should see them retain the seat.
Back Colation (Liberal) to win South Barwon @ $1.90
Richmond
The Greens have been coming for this seat since 2010 and it could be a case of third time lucky for them as they try and unseat the Labor member Richard Wynne, who’s held the seat since 1999. Richmond has always been a Labor seat but rapid gentrification has seen The Green vote only get bigger in recent years. With the Victorian Liberals choosing not to run a candidate in the seat of Richmond, Labor can’t rely on a steady flow of Liberal preferences to get them over the line which if trends persist could see it turn Green for the first time.
Back The Greens to win Richmond @ $1.65