From 32 teams down to 12, this year’s race to the Super Bowl looks to be a doozy.
For the first time in three years, the Patriots failed to claim the No.1 seed in the AFC, while the NFC remains a wide open crapshoot between three experienced sides, two up-and-comers, and last year’s Super Bowl champions.
But while it’s worth looking at why each team could win the granddaddy, it’s also worth looking at why each team won’t take home the Lombardi Trophy.
So whether you’re all-in on the Saints, or thinking of backing another underdog upset, be sure to check out our thoughts below.
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs
- Record: 13-3
- Super Bowl Odds: $5.50
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
For most of the season, the Chiefs were the best side in the NFL thanks to an offence that can score at will. Patrick Mahomes threw for over 5000 yards and for 50 touchdowns which is no small feat, all while loading up a highlight reel of plays. With home field advantage and a raucous crowd behind them, Arrowhead Stadium will be an imposing venue for whoever has to travel there.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
Two things are working against the Chiefs, their defence and history. For most of the year they have opted to employ the matador scheme which is not too helpful when opposing players just run free for most of the game. Secondly, look up Andy Reid’s history in the playoffs, it is just not that good and if he’s in a tight situation, will he freeze up?
New England Patriots
- Record: 11-5
- Super Bowl Odds: $7.50
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
When the Patriots take to the field for their divisional round game in a week and a half, they will still have Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the rabbits foot that has been attached to this team since September 2001. Consider this number, Brady and Belichick have won 27 playoff games together, every other quarterback in the AFC combined has played in 25. These are two guys who know how to win when the team around them might not be the most talented.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
That last sentence says it all, the Patriots as a whole, are not the juggernaut team we have seen before and are very susceptible to a poor performance, especially if they have to travel for a potential AFC Championship game. While no Patriots fan wants the dynasty to end (and it is still a year or two away from doing so), this might not be their year with a defence that has struggled badly for most of the year.
Houston Texans
- Record: 11-5
- Super Bowl Odds: $21.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
At one point the Texans won nine games in a row… yes the same team that started off 0-3. Across their roster they have some of the most talented, disruptive players in the game on both sides of the ball and will be in the mix in every game.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
For a side that is so talented, Houston just has not put it all together yet and does seem susceptible to a bad loss on Wild Card Weekend. Plus when you look at the teams they beat on that winning run, only a couple are worth bragging about.
Baltimore Ravens
- Record: 10-6
- Super Bowl Odds: $15.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
Ever since turning the offence over to Lamar Jackson, Baltimore has been rolling. By playing to their rookie QB’s strengths and protecting him with a solid ground game, Jackson has found a comfort zone and is making plays while limiting his mistakes as his confidence continues to grow. Add in the league’s best defence, a confident head coach who gets his team up for every game and you have a great mixture for January football.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
If Lamar Jackson has to make a big throw with the game on the line, will he? As a passer he still has a way to go in terms of development and a smart defensive coach might sell out to stop the run and force Jackson to win with his arm, that and they are prone to lose their composure if things start to turn against them.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Record: 12-4
- Super Bowl Odds: $15.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
A popular pick to finally break through their glass ceiling, the Chargers need a win to get some attention in the LA market. Phillip Rivers had one of the best seasons of his career this year and the Chargers were the only team to go into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
Because they finished as a Wild Card team they have to win three times, all likely on the road to just get to the Super Bowl, which is a big ask for any side. Let alone one that has been depleted by injuries like the Chargers have.
Indianapolis Colts
- Record: 10-6
- Super Bowl Odds: $26.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
It took a while for the Colts to get going but now they have, they are one of the scariest opponents for a team to have. With nine wins from their last 10 games, the Colts are perhaps the form side in the NFL and as long as they protect Andrew Luck, he will guide them through the playoffs.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
As good as Luck is, he is still prone to a boneheaded interception or fumble at the worst possible moment and will need to avoid those plays starting this weekend against Houston. Add in the fact they had an ugly 6-0 loss in Jacksonville in early December and it shows this side is far from infallible and could do anything from lose this weekend to win the Super Bowl.
NFC
New Orleans Saints
- Record: 13-3
- Super Bowl Odds: $3.50
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
How do you stop the third-highest scoring team in the league that rarely, if ever, turns the ball over? Only a handful of teams have managed to stymie the Saints’ offence this season, and only two have managed to beat them at home. New Orleans will enjoy the comforts of the Super Dome throughout the playoffs, a scary thought for any visiting team in what could very well be Drew Brees’ final swansong.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
The final month of the season was hardly convincing for New Orleans. Aside from resting most of their starters in a blowout loss to the Panthers in Week 17, the Saints scraped home by the skin of their teeth against the Steelers a week earlier. Among the five other NFC contestants in this year’s playoffs though, the Cowboys are the only team to have beaten New Orleans after holding Brees to under 200-yards and an interception. If they meet in the NFC Divisional or Championship Round, Dallas could be the Saints’ biggest roadblock.
Los Angeles Rams
- Record: 13-3
- Super Bowl Odds: $5.50
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
The Rams are laden with offensive superstars everywhere you turn, but if this team is to win their second Super Bowl ring, it’ll be thanks to the defence. Los Angeles rank third in the league in turnovers created, while defensive tackle Aaron Donald is once again on his way to his second-straight Defensive Player of the Year Award after leading the league in sacks. We’ve already seen the Rams disrupt the Chiefs’ high-wire offence once this season, which has to be a scary thought for anyone in either conference.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
The cracks have been apparent since midseason, and there’s no denying the fact the Rams lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles – all three of which are in this year’s playoffs. You also have to wonder how healthy running back Todd Gurley really is. With just two weeks to rest a knee injury, we could see some signs of rust early on. There’s also the simple fact that the Rams just aren’t that experienced in the postseason – case in point last year’s 26-13 loss in the Wild Card round against the Falcons.
Chicago Bears
- Record: 12-4
- Super Bowl Odds: $12.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
Defence wins championships, right? The Bears sure hope so, because Vic Fangio’s unit has been superb all season long. Chicago lead the league in turnovers and interceptions, while they’ve also allowed the fewest points and rushing yards in 2018. It’s a daunting task for the Philadelphia Eagles this week as they prepare to visit Soldier Field, especially with a healthy Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith on the opposite side. Both starting linebackers have accounted for a combined 18-sacks this season.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
The Bears refuse to build around a starting quarterback, and it could cost them once again. Rewind to 2010, the last time the Bears made the playoffs. Jay Cutler exits the NFC Championship Game against the Packers after throwing for just 80-yards and an interception, and Chicago loses 21-14 at home. This time around it’s Mitch Trubisky’s turn in the spotlight, a quarterback renowned for over-throwing balls and relying on his feet to do most of the work. This doesn’t bode well for the Bears if running back Jordan Howard and tight end Trey Burton are complete non-factors.
Dallas Cowboys
- Record: 10-6
- Super Bowl Odds: $26.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
The defence has more than lived up to expectations, which has carried the Cowboys all the way through to their 23rd division title. Not only did Dallas allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards during the regular season, they also allowed the sixth-fewest points. Discipline counts for everything in the playoffs though, and for the first time in a long time, that’s the Cowboys’ biggest strength. Dallas are the second-least penalized team in the league aside from New Orleans, which could potentially become a very interesting Divisional Round match up next week.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
Unfortunately there’s a few things on the list preventing Dallas from winning their sixth ring. The conversation has to start with the offensive line, a unit that led the league in sacks allowed during the regular season. You also have to consider how one-dimensional Dallas can be at times. If Ezekiel Elliott is held to a quiet game, can the Cowboys really produce points with just Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper? When you factor in their special teams unit ranked second-last in yards-per-return this season, things don’t look good.
Seattle Seahawks
- Record: 10-6
- Super Bowl Odds: $26.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
Nobody expected this from the Seahawks this season. Seattle already own wins over the Cowboys and the Chiefs, while the defence has quietly adjusted to life without the likes of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas. Russell Wilson deserves to be thrown into the MVP conversation after throwing a career high in touchdowns and a career-low in interceptions. A rejuvenated running back committee as well as a stealthy long-range kicker like Sebastian Janikowski ensures the Seahawks can’t be taken lightly.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
The glaring concern is Seattle’s average 4-4 record on the road this season. They’ll travel throughout the playoffs unless they meet the Eagles in the Conference Championship Game, which takes away the 12th man factor normally felt at CenturyLink Field. It also remains to be seen if the Seahawks can keep their offence on the field for long stretches after posting a third conversion rate of less than 40% this season.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Record: 9-7
- Super Bowl Odds: $34.00
Why They Can Win the Super Bowl:
There’s no doubt the roster talent pales in comparison to the likes of New Orleans and Los Angeles, but that certainly didn’t stop the Eagles last year, did it? It’ll take some momentum and a stroke of luck if Philly are to repeat, and fortunately they have the one of those down pat. The Eagles have won three-straight coming in, but the story has to be the running game led by Josh Adams and Wendell Smallwood. Both will need to be at their best if the Eagles are to win on the road.
Why They Won’t Win the Super Bowl:
Nick Foles is crucial to the Eagles’ chances, but it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from last year’s Super Bowl MVP. Foles picked up a rib injury against the Redskins in Week 17, and while it won’t see him miss any time, it could prove costly if he’s less than 100%. As far as the bigger picture goes, the secondary is public enemy No.1. The Eagles led the league in completions allowed during the regular season, so even if they squeak past the Bears in Chicago, things could get ugly in New Orleans.