The title of Australian’s best sprinter will be on the line in the 2019 TJ Smith Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
The TJ Smith Stakes field is absolutely packed full of quality and all 11 horses have either won or been placed at Group 1 level.
Who will stamp themselves as our sprinting star? We have analysed the entire field and our complete 2019 TJ Smith Stakes tips can be found below.
Redzel
It is tough to know what to make of Redzel at this stage of his racing career. He was beaten by Ball Of Muscle in the Challenge Stakes and he produced one of the worst performances of his career in The Galaxy last start. Redzel bounced back from a similar effort in the Premiere Stakes to win The Everest, but it is very tough to back him in a race of this quality off that performance.
Trapeze Artist
Trapeze Artist has the chance to join Black Caviar and Chautauqua as the only horses to win the TJ Smith Stakes on multiple occasions. He returned to the races with a very flat effort in the Expressway Stakes before he led from start to finish to score a dominant win in the Canterbury Stakes. There was plenty of merit in that performance, but he did have all the favours and he won’t get as easy a run in front in the TJ Smith Stakes. He definitely has the talent to win this race, but I can’t get him as short as his current odds in such a strong race.
Santa Ana Lane
Santa Ana Lane is the value runner in TJ Smith Stakes betting. He won the Premiere Stakes over this track and distance in the Spring and a repeat of that performance would have him right in this contest. There was plenty of merit in his fifth place finish with a big weight in the Newmarket Handicap and he is a horse that generally improves the further that he gets into his campaign. The strong early speed should set the race up for him and he will be flying home in the concluding stages of the race.
Pierata
A maiden Group 1 win continues to elude Pierata. He was a touch flat first-up in the Canterbury Stakes, but he returned to his best form with a fast-finishing second place finish behind Nature Strip in The Galaxy. This is a step-up in quality, but he does have an excellent record at Royal Randwick and he maps to get a lovely run in transit. He has to be considered among the leading contenders.
Vega Magic
Vega Magic is the x-factor in the TJ Smith Stakes. His best form is definitely good enough to win this contest and he generally does produce that sort of form first-up. His barrier trial at Randwick ahead of his return to the races was excellent and the improving track is an advantage for him. Barrier three is ideal for him and the $17 currently available is well and truly over the odds.
Ball Of Muscle
You can’t knock the recent form of Ball Of Muscle and he has recorded four wins from his five race starts. He showed plenty of toughness to hold-off Redzel in the Challenge Stakes and I like the fact that he has been freshened-up for this contest. In saying that, this race is a genuine step-up in quality and I don’t think that he has the upside to win a race of this quality at this stage of his racing career.
Osborne Bulls
Osborne Bulls is currently equal favourite with Trapeze Artist in TJ Smith Stakes betting and I can’t get him as short as his current price. He has savaged the line in both the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and the Newmarket Handicap, but this race is tougher again and I do think that he needs to go to another level to beat this sort of field at weight-for-age level. There is no doubt that he deserves to be considered one of the leading contenders, but I can’t back him at the current price.
Fell Swoop
Fell Swoop has run well without winning the TJ Smith Stakes in the past and his recent form has not been particularly bad. In saying that, this is a much tougher race than the William Reid Stakes and he is one of the outsiders of this field for a reason.
Shoals
Shoals missed the William Reid Stakes with a minor issue, but she has trialed nicely ahead of the TJ Smith Stakes. She returned to the races with a credible second place finish behind Trapeze Artist in the Canterbury Stakes and she is consistent as they come. I’m not sure that she has as much upside as some of the other horses in this field and I think that $11 is around the right price.
Champagne Cuddles
Champagne Cuddles was not disgraced in the Newmarket Handicap last start, but she has still shown nothing this campaign to suggest that she is capable of winning a race of this quality. Anything better than a midfield finish would be a success.
Sunlight
Sunlight goes into the Newmarket Handicap on the back of extremely tough wins in the Newmarket Handicap and the William Reid Stakes. You can’t knock her form, but this is definitely a tougher assignment. They handed the lead to her on a platter in the William Reid Stakes and they simply won’t do that in the TJ Smith Stakes. She has shown her toughness this campaign, but I think that she would need to improve again to claim a third Group 1 win on the trot.