A full working week means a full dose of our 5 Lessons Learned column on the weekend that was in the NRL.
It was a weekend dominated by home sides and favourites as the competition’s big guns fired.
There was a lot to take away from the ANZAC Round so let’s get right into what the numbers are telling us.
1 – One for the Favourites
Round 7 was a week where the results, for the most part, followed the form line, with the favourites having a very successful weekend.
Head to head favourites went 7-1 with only the Eels going down to the Knights in the final game of the round.
Against the spread it was a similar story with a 6-2 record for the favourites, aside from the Eels, the only favourite that didn’t cover was the Storm who had a massive line to contend with against the Warriors.
That is the second time this season the favourites have had a really strong weekend, the other occasion came in Round 2 when the favourites won and covered on seven occasions.
They failed to back that up the next week dropping to five wins head to head and four against the spread.
Of course, there may have been another factor in the favourites performing so well this weekend but more on that later…
2 – Storm’s Close Calls
If you’re a Storm fan you might have aged significantly in the last month as they scraped by the Warriors 13-12.
These close calls are troublingly frequent and it was the second straight one point game for the Storm, although unlike Good Friday, they came out on the right side of the margin this week.
They did however fail to cover the line which, considering it was hovering around -15.5, you could perhaps forgive them for doing so.
It was the second time they have been such big favourites, also having a -16.5 line against the Bulldogs and on that occasion, they only just scraped home.
In short, if you see the Storm with a huge line in their favour, don’t buy into it just yet.
After all, their last four games have been decided by six points or fewer so perhaps taking the Storm’s opponent at the line or the Storm by 1-10 in the winning margin markets might be the plays going forward.
3 – Rabbitohs Bounce Back
Like the Storm, the Rabbitohs have been dealing with the curse of being a good team.
Souths have had some sizeable lines to contend with against the spread and also teams just seem to try and bring their best against them.
This week saw the Bunnies flex their muscles (sort of) and cover the line in their game for the first time since Round 2.
In that time they have still picked up three wins but failed to cover against the Titans (-12.5), Warriors (-7.5) and Bulldogs (-8.5) with a loss against Manly thrown in.
But with the line correcting down to -3.5 against the Panthers, the Bunnies pulled off a four point victory.
With the Broncos getting back into the winners circle, you might have to pause before blindly backing the Rabbitohs in the Bennett-Siebold Bowl this Thursday night.
4 – Away Day Battlers
We teased it before, now let’s look at the other reason why the favourites performed so well this weekend, a lot of them played at home.
Souths were the only “away” side to win although they didn’t exactly have a cross country trip just going to Penrith.
There are four sides still winless on the road and two of them will face off this Sunday afternoon in New Zealand.
The Warriors have gone 0-4 on the road, but are a solid 2-1 at home and they host a Knights side winless in two away trips so far, losing to Canberra and the Gold Coast.
Who says home ground means nothing anymore?
5 – Eels Ups and Downs
After christening Bankwest Stadium with a huge win on Easter Monday, the Eels had a miserable Sunday when they visited the Knights.
They return to their shiny new venue this weekend when they host the Dragons and they will look to try and create a real home ground advantage with another win here.
Of course there is the real problem of not knowing which Eels side will turn up for the game.
The week before they put up 50 on the Tigers, they were shut out in Canberra and have as many great performances as they do massive let downs.
Question is, after home sides went 7-1 last week, can you have some confidence in the Eels at home here?