In what seems to have been a never-ending campaign since the events of the Libspill back in August last year, Australians go to the polls on Saturday, May 18th to decide who will rule the nation for the next three years (or have pre-polled already).
The polls suggest it’s all one-way traffic for Bill Shorten and the Labor party to win the election and although some polls have tightened the money still suggests we’re in for a change of government.
Good news for punters is that we don’t just have one market for the Federal Election –we have plenty. You can bet on every single individual seat in the Lower house and there’s a number of highly competitive markets.
I have crunched the numbers, absorbed all the data and read every political hot take from the “Canberra Bubble” and you can find my thoughts on our major markets and some of the standout individual seats.
- New South Wales
- Queensland
- Victoria
- South Australia
- Western Australia
- Northern Territory
- Australian Capital Territory
FEDERAL ELECTION SWORN IN GOVERNMENT
Since this market opened way back in October 2017, Labor has always been the favourite to win this election. The market opened with Labor at $1.72 and the Coalition at $2.20
It was going to be the shortest you would have gotten the Coalition and the longest odds you would have got Labor to win.
Since the poll was called, the sworn in government market has moved around a little bit with Labor drifting from $1.15 – $1.35 and the Coalition fluctuating from $3.15 – $5, with the market still having Labor as an outright favourite.
While we have been subject to some upset election results of recent – think Donald Trump and Brexit, you need to factor in that unlike those elections – Australia has compulsory, preferential voting which actually makes it harder for outsiders to win elections (unless it’s the Senate)
There have also been hundreds of thousands of people that have already voted in the pre-polling booths which usually means many have already made their minds up and that’s usually not good news for the incumbent.
With that in mind, unless you genuinely believe a Scott Morrison major upset is on the cards, you’re better off looking at other markets in this election.
We wouldn’t say Bill Shorten and Labor are Winx, but if Winx was running she’d win in a landslide.
NO BET
NUMBER OF LABOR SEATS OVERALL
With Labor the favourite to win the election, this market provides some excellent value. The Newspoll published on April 29th had a 49-51 two-party preferred between the Coalition and Labor and while it’s a tightening in the polls, I can’t see it changing much at all. On those numbers, Labor would have 77 seats in the lower house (enough to govern in their own right) and the Coalition 68 and I feel that’s a reasonable estimate of the state of the House. Along with a few Independents and Minor parties coming into parliament, the 76-80 seats to Labor seems about right.
BACK LABOR TO WIN 76-80 SEATS @ $4.00
STATE OF THE HOUSE
Based on Ladbrokes markets, the House of Representatives would look like this if an election were held now:
NEW SOUTH WALES –
NUMBER OF COALITION SEATS
Being a New South Welshman and a man who loves his “Sharkies”, Scott Morrison has some fans in NSW and that might play in his favour. The recent NSW state election saw a return of a Coalition government and there’s some good value in the individual seat market. If there’s any state where the Liberal/National Coalition can win seats in – it’s New South Wales. A recent breakdown of Ladbrokes markets has the Coalition favourites in 18 seats, but I can see them picking up at least another two taking them to 20 seats in New South Wales.
BACK THE COALITION TO WIN 20 SEATS IN NEW SOUTH WALES @ $5
NUMBER OF LABOR SEATS
While there is some love towards Scott Morrison in NSW, there’s still plenty who have had their minds up for a while and ready to vote the Coalition out of Government. Labor needs and will pick up seats in New South Wales if they are to win. Our individual seat markets have Labor favourite in 28 NSW seats and I think it’s a case of over/under. Happy to go the odds and have the ALP with 27 seats in New South Wales.
BACK LABOR TO WIN 27 SEATS IN NEW SOUTH WALES @ $4.50
COWPER
The Mid North Coast NSW seat has always been a National Party stronghold but with a fair bit of anger towards to Nats in regional areas, a retiring member and a high profile independent candidate in Rob Oakeshott (who’s been in parliament before) could seat the seat fall out of Country/National party hands for the first time in its history. Oakeshott ran in 2016 and pulled the once-safe seat to a 4.6% margin and a long campaign has seen the people of Cowper look favourably at the man who holds the record for the longest announcement in history. I expect Rob Oakeshott to return to parliament.
BACK INDEPENDENT (ROB OAKESHOT) @ $1.60
FARRER
Located on the NSW/VIC border, this is another of the safe Coalition seats that have come under threat from an Independent. High profile Albury mayor Kevin Mack is running against former minister for health Susan Ley from the Liberal Party and with neighbouring electorates having a taste of independents before and liking what they see and many disillusioned by the Liberal Party, expect Kevin Mack to be sitting on the crossbench after May 18th.
BACK INDEPENDENT (KEVIN MACK) @ $1.75
GILMORE
The seat is currently held by the Liberals on a margin of 0.7% and with a redistribution taking in areas where the Labor vote is quite high, this should be a seat that Labor picks up hence the short price in our market.
BACK LABOR @ $1.20
LINDSAY
The seat around the Penrith area sees controversial Labor MP Emma Husar not recontest the seat after lewd claims and accusations of bullying to staff in her office. Will it have an impact on the new Labor candidate? Maybe. The electorate, in general, is split in half between a Labor voting area and Liberal voting area. With that in mind, if the Coalition is going pick up any seat of the Labor party in this election, this is the one and they are a good value bet for a potential rare gain in this election.
BACK COALITION (LIBERAL) @ $1.70
REID
This seat has only been held by the Liberal Party since 2013 and with the popular local MP Craig Laundy who was a Malcolm Turnbull loyalist calling it a day, it plays back into Labor’s hands. Expect this seat to be a quick pick up for Labor.
BACK LABOR @ $1.45
ROBERTSON
Another seat with a small Liberal margin of 1.1% around the Central Coast area and has tended to be a bell-weather of recent. With the likely swing against the Government, it means seats like Robertson fall and Labor should pick it up.
BACK LABOR @ $1.50
WARRINGAH
The seat currently held by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, this seat has always been a safe Liberal one but with angst amongst the electorate on issues such as same-sex marriage and climate change, issues that Abbott tends to go against the grain on, a challenger has emerged in former Winter Olympian Zali Steggal running as an independent. There’s plenty of momentum behind Steggal in this campaign and there will be plenty of people in the electorate who will not be voting the Liberal Party for the first time in their lives. However, Tony Abbott is a ruthless political operator and knows how to campaign. Expect his current margin of 11.1% to take an absolute smashing but he should be able to just scrape in.
BACK COALITION (LIBERAL) @ $1.90
WENTWORTH
The seat once held by Malcolm Turnbull was won by high-profile independent candidate Dr.Kerryn Phelps in a by-election back in October last year with a 1.0% margin and was a major upset. It was also the first time in the history of the seat that the Liberal Party lost this once blue-ribbon seat. While many including our own market have this seat getting back into Liberal hands, I can see Phelps being returned. She’s maintained a high profile and history suggests that when electorates get a taste of an independent they tend to stay. The value in Phelps keeping her seat is excellent value.
BACK INDEPENDENT (KERRYN PHELPS) @ $4.00
QUEENSLAND
NUMBER OF COALITION SEATS
Queensland is always a hard state to read and is usually split between what those in the South-East and Central/North are feeling. With that in mind, while some Coalition (LNP) seats are at risk this election, they might be a chance of picking up a seat of Labor. Factors such as where preferences from the Clive Palmer United Australia Party and the Pauline Hanson One Nation vote will go, depending on how many opt for the minor parties could see them get over the line in some seats.
BACK THE COALITION (LNP) TO WIN 15 QUEENSLAND SEATS @ $7.00
NUMBER OF LABOR SEATS
If Labor is to pick up seats, they’ll likely do it in South-East Queensland and some regional towns. The Adani issue might be a factor in splitting the Labor vote but with some LNP seats at low margins and likely swings against them, it should see more electorates from the Sunshine State going to the Labor Party.
BACK LABOR TO WIN 14 QUEENSLAND SEATS @ $6.50
BONNER
This Eastern Brisbane seat has only been held by Labor once, back in 2007 and has been Liberal for every other election. This is one of those seats that if the swing against the government is on will likely fall to the Labor Party.
BACK LABOR @ $2.30
DAWSON
The seat held by high-profile and controversial National MP George Christensen is in play with a margin of 3.4% is in play. With Christensen himself not afraid to find himself in the headlines and recent scandals about how much time he has spent in the Philippines rather than his electorate the market predicts he will lose his seat. But I’m willing to take the risk and back Christensen to retain his seat due to his high profile and a strong following in his electorate. It’s also good value.
BACK COALITION (LNP) @ $1.87
DICKSON
Politically, it hasn’t been the best 12 months or so for high profile Liberal minister Peter Dutton. A botched attempt to knife Malcolm Turnbull and take the Liberal leadership back in August, only to go down to Scott Morrison and now he’s fighting for his political life to keep his own seat held by a margin of only 1.7%.
Prior to the election, I’d have been willing to take Dutton to keep his seat but recent slip-ups in his own campaign such as attacking his Labor opponent for using her disability as an excuse to not live in the electorate didn’t wash down well with the broader public, his wife having to declare “he’s not a monster” to the media and the highly resourced Labor campaign in the seat, I can’t back him.
BACK LABOR @ $1.65
FLYNN
This Central Queensland seat is a fascinating betting contest. It takes in strong Labor areas such as Gladstone and Rockhampton but is about half the size of Victoria and also has a large number of rural towns that are strong LNP.
With that in mind, Labor almost got over the line in 2016 and current sitting member Ken O’Dowd only holds the seat by a 1.0% margin.
It will also be interesting to see where the split of preferences goes from the One Nation and Clive Palmer votes go in this contest if there’s enough of a protest vote.
However, like a fair few seats in this election, if the swing is against the government, Flynn will fall to Labor.
BACK LABOR TO WIN FLYNN @ $1.83
FORDE
Only narrowly held by the LNP on a 0.6% margin, this should be one of the first seats to be won by the Labor party should the swing be on. Labor almost had this seat at the 2016 election and they should be able to pick this one up off the LNP this time. It would be a case of third time lucky for Labor candidate Des Hardman who was dropped for Peter Beatie in 2013 and looked like he won the seat in 2016 for a 48 hour period after the election.
BACK LABOR TO WIN FORDE @ $1.36
HERBERT
The most marginal of marginal seats, this seat is currently held by the Labor Party by 37 votes. The sitting member Cathy O’Toole is lucky to have incumbency and opposition on her side but things such as the Adani issue, Clive Palmer, One Nation and the handful of votes the seat is held by, might be a rare pick up off Labor for the LNP if the polls and Ladbrokes markets are correct.
BACK COALITION (LNP) TO WIN HERBET @ $1.33
LEICHHARDT
Most of the population of this seat in this massive electorate live in Cairns and it’s a marginal seat held by the LNP. The local member Warren Entsch has a reasonably high profile in the area which also borders on Bob Katter country. With that in mind, it’s the kind of seat that can fall into Labor’s hands if the swing is on and worth taking at the price.
BACK LABOR TO WIN LEICHHARDT @ $2.80
PETRIE
Another of the suburban Brisbane seats held by a small margin by the LNP of 1.6%. Like many of these seats, it is one that will fall to Labor as to when the swing is on – it’s on in Queensland. Expect to be a Labor seat on May 18th.
BACK LABOR TO WIN PETRIE @ $1.65
VICTORIA
Number of Coalition Seats
The state of Victoria was once known as the “Jewel in the Liberal Crown” but it has become very Labor territory, even in the Rudd/Gillard years. The Liberal party was comprehensively beaten in the Victorian State Election back in November which saw some one-time blue ribbon Liberal seats fall or almost fall. Victoria was also a state where Malcolm Turnbull was actually popular. The Liberals have also found themselves campaigning in seats they normally wouldn’t have to. If the result of the Victorian state election were to be repeated, Labor would win the federal election in Victoria alone. I don’t think that will be the case and they should be able to save some of the furniture down South.
BACK COALITION TO WIN 14 SEATS IN VICTORIA @ $5
Number of Labor Seats
Victoria may be the home state of Bill Shorten and while the Vics are a patriotic bunch, it won’t be the factor of having a Victorian for PM that will get them over the line. The Coalition doesn’t seem to be that popular in Victoria and Labor should pick up a fair few seats here. Anything around the 20-25 seat mark is likely and I found Labor with a flat 25 seats good value at the price.
BACK LABOR TO WIN 23 SEATS IN VICTORIA @ $5
ASTON
It’s a relatively safe Liberal seat held by 7.7% but in the case of Victoria, any seat held by the government under 10% is in play and every election night has the odd surprise here and there if this seat falls to Labor, Bill Shorten is on his way to the Lodge. It might be worth somewhat of a flutter on Labor for value.
BACK LABOR TO WIN ASTON @ $4.50
CHISHOLM
One of the few Liberal gains off Labor back in 2016, recent events have seen MP Julia Banks quit the party after Malcolm Turnbull was knifed as PM, become an independent, quit and run against Greg Hunt in neighbouring Flinders as an independent. The Liberal candidate in the area is scandal-prone and should fall back into the hands of the Labor party.
BACK LABOR TO WIN CHISHOLM @ $1.35
CORANGAMITE
Currently held by Liberal MP Sarah Henderson, Corangamite is now notionally Labor due to a recent redistribution of the electorate by the AEC. The seat is a major battleground and one the Coalition desperately need to retain if they are any chance of winning. As the distribution happened there was also a call to name the seat Cox, which as much as we writers who like a good double-entendre was rejected. Jokes aside, Labor should win this one but a reasonably high profile local MP putting herself out there, it might be one of the “save the furniture” seats by the Liberal Party and is quite a value at the price.
BACK COALITION TO WIN CORANGAMITE @ $3.00
DEAKIN
This outer-suburban electorate has been mostly Liberal in its history but polling and markets suggest it will fall to Labor. The sitting member played a part in the Libspill by backing Peter Dutton and the Labor campaign is doing a lot to remind the electorate about it. Deakin has also had visits from Scott Morrison during the campaign when previously it hasn’t needed this sort of high-profile campaigning. All roads lead to Labor winning this seat and I’m more than happy to take them at the price.
BACK LABOR TO WIN DEAKIN @ $1.87
DUNKLEY
Another seat where a recent redistribution has seen it become a marginal Labor seat which surrounds the Frankston area has seen it as a likely Labor gain and at the short odds, you won’t get a good return for your investment. Barring a complete turnaround from the Liberal Party in the campaign, expect it to fall to Labor.
NO BET
FLINDERS
One of the more fascinating individual seat contests this election, Flinders currently held by the Minister for Health Greg Hunt on a safe Liberal margin of 7% has a challenger in former Liberal member Julia Banks running as an independent. While I can’t see Julia Banks (who is at $12 to win) getting home in this one, there’s a heap of other candidates running and Greg Hunt will be hoping for a strong primary to avoid a long night on May 18th. Greg Hunt’s role in the Libspill might also work against him therefore, I’m happy to take Labor at the even money.
BACK LABOR TO WIN FLINDERS @ $2.15
LA TROBE
This seat has been on/off Labor/Liberal over time and you’d expect if the swing is on it’s either one the Liberals could keep as a “save the furniture” seat or very likely to end up Labor. It’s a toss of a coin but I think they won’t be able to hold on to this one and happy to take Labor at the current price.
BACK LABOR TO WIN LA TROBE @ $1.33
MACNAMARA
The seat formally known as Melbourne Ports and a retiring member sees this seat becoming a fascinating three-way contest between Labor, The Greens and Liberal. Well, it was initially until a few gaffs from the Liberal candidate regarding the status of religion and private v public schools have seen her fall out of favour, making this another inner-city Melbourne Labor v Greens fight. Labor should be able to hold this seat, there’s enough of a Greens vote but it will probably result in a Labor/Liberal two-party preferred with enough preferences resulting in Labor winning the seat at a competitive price.
BACK LABOR TO WIN MACNAMARA @ $1.50
INDI
The seat has been held by high-profile independent Cathy McGowan who is calling it a day, leaving it in play for the Liberal party to take back after Sophie Mirabella lost it in 2013. It’s a toss of a coin this one, there is a McGowan backed independent in Helen Haines who is favourite but there’s also the factor that people go back to old voting habits. In a pretty competitive betting market, I’m happy to take the Liberal party at the current price.
BACK COALITION (LIBERAL) TO WIN INDI @ $1.60
HIGGINS
Now, this is an interesting seat to watch. This Melbourne seat which takes in suburbs like South Yarra and Toorak has always been a blue ribbon Liberal seat but is now in play with the Greens. High profile local member and Liberal frontbencher Kelly O’Dwyer has decided to call it a day and the state seat of Prahran which takes in part of the electorate has fallen Green in 2014 and 2018. Could it happen at a federal level? Every chance, the market is a three horse race between Liberal, Labor and The Greens and if the Liberal party get under 50% primary votes, the Greens could find themselves gaining the seat with preferences from both Labor and Liberal going their way. This feels like a possible roughie that you’d find on your Saturday races and I’m willing to take my chances on it happening.
BACK THE GREENS TO WIN HIGGINS @ $5.00
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Boothby
This has been a traditionally Liberal seat for most of its life but a recent redistribution and a general anger towards the government has seen this suburban Adelaide seat into play. It’s also quite marginal at 2.7% and as is the case with many seats this federal election, if there’s the expected swing against the government then expect it to fall into Labor hands.
BACK LABOR TO WIN BOOTHBY @ $2.25
Sturt
The seat has been rather safe for the Liberal’s over the years but with the retirement of Christopher Pyne and the margin shrinking, if Labor is going to take this seat, now is the time. At the current price, Labor is good value and worth the risk for the potential return.
BACK LABOR TO WIN STURT @ $3.75
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Hasluck
Currently held by the Liberals by 2.7%, this seat is in play and is at risk of being one the coalition drop at the election. Most polls, numbers and our markets have Labor favourite and happy to take it at the current price.
BACK LABOR TO WIN HASLUCK @ $1.33
Pearce
This seat has always been held by the Liberal Party and while our markets have Labor picking it up, I’m willing to go against the grain on this one and see Attorney-General Christian Porter retain his seat. Just. It’s a good value bet.
BACK COALITION (LIBERAL) TO WIN PEARCE @ $1.75
Stirling
With the retirement of a high profile Liberal minister in Michael Keenan, this seat held by the Liberals with a margin of 6.6% comes into play for Labor to pick up. This is a close betting market with at the time this was written Labor at $1.80 and Coalition at $1.90. It’s a toss of the coin – and I’ll take Labor at the price and with the momentum heading their way.
BACK LABOR TO WIN STIRLING @ $1.90
Swan
Marginally held by the Liberal Party, Swan has been on and off again between Labor and Liberal over the years. The seat saw a swing against them in 2016 and if it happens again, Labor wins. They are a good bet in this one.
BACK LABOR TO WIN SWAN @ $1.70
TASMANIA
Bass
This is seen as the only seat the Coalition could win down in Tassie but it’s a tight fight with Labor who have a 5.4% margin. It’s a very competitive market between Labor and the Coalition and just with the general mood, I can’t see it going against the grain. Labor at even money is worth taking.
BACK LABOR TO WIN BASS @ $1.70
ACT
NO BET
NORTHERN TERRITORY
NO BET