Voting is already well underway in the 2020 Queensland State Election and while Saturday is officially election day, the outcome remains anyone’s guess.
Will Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Labor win a third term or will Deb Frecklington and the LNP take the reigns in George Street?
Minor parties such as the Greens, Katter’s Australia Party, One Nation, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and some Independent candidates are also in the mix and there is much speculation that we could see a hung parliament/minority government.
The world has changed a lot since Queenslanders last went to the polls to elect their state leaders back in 2017.
There’s never a dull moment when it comes to politics in the Sunshine State and this election is set to be quite the contest.
For punters, there’s plenty of value to be had and we’ve found our best bets in time for polling day.
At the time of publishing this preview, Labor is the clear $1.22 favourite to be the next sworn in government winning a third term in office.
The LNP are the $3.75 outsiders, however, the individual seat betting markets suggest they should be at shorter odds.
Based on polls, our markets and a bit of overall gut feel on the ground, we’re betting on the result for Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Labor party to gain a small majority by Saturday night, in a very similar outcome to 2017 despite speculation that a hung parliament/ minority government is on the cards.
Back Labor majority @ $1.73
Back Labor 46-50 seats @ $2.62
Back LNP – 36-40 seats @ $4.33
NORTH QUEENSLAND VALUE SEATS
Barron River –
The seat covers the Northern part of Cairns city from the airport to Palm Cove along with Stratford, Smithfield, Redlynch and Kuranda.
The seat is known to be a bellwether and is currently held by Labor frontbencher Craig Crawford.
Labor has won this electorate nine out of the past 11 elections, mostly on preferences.
A popular local councillor in Linda Cooper is the LNP’s candidate who is gaining ground.
Back Labor @ $2.15
The electorate stretches out from south of Townsville to Bowen along the Bruce Highway.
Currently held by the LNP by a bare margin of 0.8%, the mining region electorate sees punters not able to split between the LNP’s sitting member Dale Last and Katter’s Australia Party candidate Sam Cox – both at $1.85 at time of publish.
It’s a flip of the coin this one and will almost certainly come down to preferences.
I’m backing the LNP to retain it.
Back LNP @ $1.85
Covering areas such as Yeppon, Emu Park and the Keppel Islands, this electorate has been held by Labor’s Brittany Lauga since 2015.
Lauga narrowly won the seat in 2017 with a 3.1% margin with One Nation coming in second on the preference count.
With much of the electorate reliant on tourism dollars, the area has taken a significant hit due to the pandemic and there could be a potential gain for the LNP in this contest.
Back LNP @ $1.60
This electorate spans from Rockhampton to the outer suburbs of the Mackay region and is currently held by One Nation’s Stephen Andrew by a 4.1% margin.
The key for Andrew to retain the seat is the LNP’s decision to place the Labor party last on their how-to-vote cards.
It feels though the enthusiasm for One Nation isn’t as prominent in this election campaign and $2.50 for candidate Tracie Newitt is excellent value for a potential gain for the LNP.
Back LNP @ $2.50
Another bellwether seat, Mundingburra which covers southern areas of Townsville, including Australia’s biggest military base the Lavarack Barracks, the Townsville Hospital and the James Cook University Campus.
The seat is currently held by Labor’s Coralee O’Rourke who is retiring by a 1.1% margin.
Seats in the Townsville area tend to see low first preference votes for major parties and whoever wins will almost certainly come down to preferences.
Back Labor @ $1.60
Currently held by Labor’s Aaron Harper on a 4.1% margin, this electorate covers areas around the southern reaches of Townsville.
This contest has the potential to be a four-way contest between Labor, Katter’s Australia Party, the LNP and One Nation.
The incumbent should be able to hold this one, but don’t be surprised if it falls to someone who finished third on the popular vote but wins on preferences.
Back Labor @ $2.10
One of the most marginal seats in this election which is currently held by Labor’s Scott Stewart by a 0.4% margin.
There are 9 candidates in this field and it’s a contest where Labor, the LNP and Katters Australia Party all fancy their chances.
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is also running but have next to no chance of winning this seat, especially in the Townsville region.
It will all come down to preferences and we’ll probably not know the result of Townsville on election night.
I expect it is likely to fall into the hands of the LNP.
Back LNP @ $1.80
There hasn’t been a dull moment for this electorate which surrounds Mackay’s northern beaches through the Withsundays.
The sitting member, Jason Costigan holds the seat by 0.7% winning by fewer than 500 votes in 2017 and was expelled by the LNP amid complaints of harassment which have since been withdrawn.
Costigan is running again as a candidate for his newly formed party – North Queensland First and is an outside chance at $5.
Katters Australia Party also fancy their chances and are in the second line of betting at $2.50.
However, the LNP are a good value bet at $2.15 in a seat we think is a likely gain for candidate Amanda Camm and much needed for Deb Frecklington’s chances of becoming the next Queensland Premier.
Back LNP @ $2.15
SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND VALUE SEATS
Currently held by Labor’s Bart Melish by a margin of 1.2% this seat located in the northern subrubs of Brisbane is a must-win for the LNP if they are to win government.
Labor remains in the box seat to retain the seat but do not rule out the LNP taking it back after losing it in 2017.
Back Labor @ $1.70
Currently held by the LNP’s Sam O’Connor, this seat is their most marginally held seats and factoring in that 7000 new voters have moved into the electorate since 2017 could tip the balance.
What is unique about this electorate is that in 2017, pre-polling was a major factor as it will be this year.
On the election day, Labor recorded a 51.3 victory but the LNP got home thanks to the count in pre-poll and postal votes.
There’s good value for that outcome to be reversed in favour of Labor in this year’s election.
Back Labor @ $3.75
Currently held by the LNP by 4.9%, the Labor party very much believe they can gain this Gold Coast seat and have recruited a celebrity candidate in former world champion surfer Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew to take on the sitting MP Micheal Hart.
In 2017, Burleigh also gained the highest Greens vote in the Gold Coast region with 16.1% of first preferences.
Should that be able to be replicated, and the Greens preference Labor, along with Rabbit’s celebrity status it could be very much in play for Anastasia Palaszuck and her team.
Back Labor @ $3
Long-serving local member Mark McArdle from the LNP has retired at this election and this once-safe seat is now very much in the margins.
The LNP currently hold it by 3.4%, however, there was a massive 17.4% swing to Labor in 2017.
Labor remains confident of gaining more ground in this campain, but don’t rule out the LNP retaining it.
Pre-polling and postals will be a cruical factor in this seat with just under half of all votes cast on the election day in 2017, expect it to be even less this time.
Back LNP @ $1.70
This is one of the more facinating electorates to keep an eye out for on Saturday.
The seat was subject to a by-election back in March when the LNP’s Laura Gerber retained the seat by a 3.3% margin, despite a swing to Labor.
Labor’s Kaylee Campradt is returning to re-contest the seat she didn’t win back in the March by-election and Clive Palmer’s wife Anna is also running on behalf of the United Australia Party.
It could go down to the wire.
Back Labor @ $2
This seat is currently held by Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon and is the only seat in the Gold Coast region held by the party by the narrowest of margins – 0.7%
The electorate has also seen 5000 new voters enrol since 2017, which means Gaven is very much in play between Labor and the LNP.
Greens prefrences is what got Labor over the line last time, but Scanlon could increase her primary vote to ensure another term as the local member.
Back Labor @ $1.55
This mixed rural-urban electorate which takes in north of Caboolture and most inland parts of the southern Sunshine Coast is a facinating contest and one to definatley look out for on election night.
Currently held by the LNP’s Andrew Powell, he’s managed to survive two major swings against him back in 2015 when Labor’s Brent Hampsted came close to gaining the seat and only just survived in 2017.
Hampstead is back to contest the seat for the Labor party hoping for it to be third time lucky.
One Nation are also contesting the seat and with the party gaining traction in the electorate back in 2017, their prefrences could assist the LNP in retaining Glass House.
Back LNP @ $1.75
Following boundary changes in 2017 and the current member, the LNP’s Simone Wilson retiring after just one term, this result could go either way.
Earlier in the week, both the LNP and Labor were neck and neck both equal favourites at $1.85.
However, polls and the money has started to favour the Labor candidate Ali King who are now the $1.45 favourites to gain this seat.
Back Labor @ $1.45
This electorate that takes in parts of Upper Coomera, Helensvale and Pacific Pines is another one to keep your eye out on when the votes are counted.
In 2017, the electorate of Theodore recorded a record-high informal vote with confusion around complusury preferential voting coming into play.
Pre poll and postal votes, which will increase in 2020 sawa the LNP pick up just 50.4% of the vote on the election day in 2017 but went ot to record 58.6% pre-poll and 61.7% postal.
Labor has hopes that a changing population in the area will tip the balance their way in this election, but it is one the LNP should be able to retain.
Back LNP @ $1.40
MINOR PARTIES / INDEPENDENT
The Greens will be making a massive play for three seats in the Queensland parliament with the minor party the favourite to retain Maiwar ($1.40) which they first won in 2017, gain South Brisbane ($1.40) off Labor’s Jackie Trad ($2.45) and potentially win another inner Brisbane seat of McConnel ($1.80) off Labor minister Grace Grace ($2).
Katters Australia Party will pick up seats up North, with the party an each-way bet to pick up the seat of Burdekin in the Townsville region ($1.85).
They also remain a strong chance in Thuringowa ($2.45) against Labor ($2.10) and the LNP ($4)
When it comes to independents, in Macallister former Labor member Margaret Keech is an outsider chance at $3 aginst her old party ($1.50)
In the redlands/Cleveland area seat of Oodgeroo, Independent candidate Claire Richardson is gaining signifcant ground against the LNP and their sitting member Mark Robinson.
Her current price is $3.50 is outstanding value and is my best indivudal seat bet for this entire state election.
South Brisbane – Back Greens @ $1.40
McConnel – Back Greens @ $1.80
Oodgeroo – Back Claire Richardson Independent @ $3.50 – BEST BET