The 2020 US Presidential Election has broken all records for political betting in the history of Ladbrokes Australia.
At this stage, Ladbrokes has taken more bets on the US election than the Melbourne Cup.
The majority of punters are hoping that Donald Trump will cause another upset.
Over 80% of bets have been on Trump who is currently at $2.60
However, Joe Biden remains the clear $1.53 favourite.
With many punters hoping to cash in the most highly anticipated election of a lifetime, we figured we’d get in touch with one of our bookies to get a sense of where the markets are at.
Our colleague, Matthew Shaddick from Ladbrokes UK (who power our US election markets) is one of the world’s leading political bookmakers.
We pick his brains to see if the Punters are on to something with many Punters playing the Trump card…
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: Punters are heavily backing Donald Trump to produce another upset, are they on to something?
MATTHEW SHADDICK: Personally, I am very sceptical.
Unless we get one of the biggest polling misses of all time, Biden is going to win comfortably.
This is not like 2016; Biden is further ahead than Clinton ever was and there are far fewer undecided voters than four years ago.
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: What were Donald Trump’s longest odds since he first announced to run for the Oval Office back in 2015?
MATTHEW SHADDICK: He was 1000/1 to win in 2015 at the moment he announced he was running.
The biggest price he has ever been to win re-election was $3.50 back in 2017.
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: What are some of the more unique and special markets that were offer or have been requested during Trump’s first term?
Will he pardon himself during his first term? $5
To be in Russia on 1st Feb 2021: $34
We had a market on him to be suspended from Twitter but doesn’t look like that’s going to happen now.
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: If the markets are any indication, are we expecting a Blue Wave?
MATTHEW SHADDICK: It’s odds-on ($1.72) for the Democrats to win control of the House, Senate and White House.
The Senate looks like the trickiest leg of the trifecta; there are a lot of very close races there.
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: Which states have been the key money movers of recent?
MATTHEW SHADDICK:
Top 5 states bet on at Ladbrokes – numbers of bets
1. Texas 2. Florida 3. Michigan 4. Arizona 5. Ohio
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: Where is the money going in regard to Senate betting?
It’s odds-on ($1.67) that the Republicans will lose their majority end up with fewer than 50 seats.
A few seemingly safe seats now look very competitive including Alaska and South Carolina.
LADBROKES AUSTRALIA: Finally, all polls and betting markets lead to a Joe Biden/Democrats win; however, we’ve seen this movie before.
Are there any trends in both polling and betting that suggest we may have a more accurate prediction this time?
MATTHEW SHADDICK: I think people are over-relying on a repeat of 2016.
Trump was in a much better poling position back then but was about $4 to win the election.
This time he’s been backed down to $2.60 despite all the polling-based predictions saying his chances are around 10 or 15%.